When did I turn into a nit? 30/60 Stud 8

[Johnny#5]

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Would you rather check 5th or bet and why?

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After fiddling around with various hands on twodimes I changed my mind and now think this is a check unless the villain's range is very large. I say this because

- he caught a suited low card on 5th and we are in pretty bad shape to most 4-flushes and even money against other 4-card lows
- all our kickers suck and he has an overcard showing to our pair and all our kickers, it would help if we had an A or could backdoor a low or straight or flush or something
- if we have an edge it's usually a small one, like 55/45, so we don't gain much anyway if we are ahead
- this is a murky area and we need to try and showdown our hand, so we don't want to get checkraised, making this much more expensive

Yeah the last one is monday morning quarterbacking but whatever. This might swing over to a bet if he caught an unsuited low and/or the kicker cards were more favorable to us. As it is we are pretty much up [censored] creek against several possible holdings of his.

[blumpkin]

Don't check 5th. You played the hand fine.

Only thing I would change would be just calling the raise on 3rd. You probably have the best hand but there's no reason to make the pot huge at this point. For example, if he catches an A on 4th, you'll still have to fold.

[Johnny#5]

blumpkin, do you play 7th the same way as well? Looks like I'm the only one that wants to bet 7th here. Anyone think there's value in betting the river?

[Micturition Man]

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Only thing I would change would be just calling the raise on 3rd. You probably have the best hand but there's no reason to make the pot huge at this point. For example, if he catches an A on 4th, you'll still have to fold.

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Strongly agree with just calling the raise. (One of those barely ahead or way behind spots, and only your opponent knows which.)

But a minor nit - I think if you do 3-bet and he calls, you are forced to stay in even if he catches an A on 4th, unless you are highly confident he started with an A down.

If he he only has 4 to a low folding is a huge FTOP mistake given how big the pot has become, significantly worse than the FTOP mistake of calling down if he does in fact have AA now.

That's one reason not to 3-bet.

IMO.

[Micturition Man]

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blumpkin, do you play 7th the same way as well? Looks like I'm the only one that wants to bet 7th here. Anyone think there's value in betting the river?

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I think betting 7th is a big mistake. He can easily have a straight or a flush and there are few hands he pays us with that we beat.

[Johnny#5]

Any straight he could make on the river would require that he make a low on sixth which he would raise. The only exception is a broadway, which makes no sense given his 5th street checkraise unless he has exactly AcQc, so we can all but eliminate a straight for him here.

A flush is definitely possible here and I assume he would raise the river with a flush and we would have to pay off. So if we bet we lose one extra bet if he makes a flush. The fact that he just called 6th instead of raising means he has to have some sort of made hand unless he has 9cxc or Qcxc, which is unlikely. So let's say he'll make a flush 5% of the time (seems reasonable.) And let's say he'll make KKK or AAA another 5% of the time. The other 90% of the time he'll either raise with a low or fold/call with a worse high hand. If he makes a low we chop and the raise doesn't cost us anything so we need him to call with a worse high about 10% of the time in order to break even.

So it boils down to will he make a crycall with kings up or aces up getting 11:1 or so. I think he will have this hand over 10% of the time on the river here and you can usually expect a call from people hoping for whatever. Maybe not though. I could be convinced otherwise.

[Micturition Man]

Good point about him not having a straight. I had missed that. I think you are right about value betting then.

[SCSTWG]

I would check 5th and bet 7th.