Need Theory/Advice - low pocket pair late in tourney with large blinds

[PkrLawyer]

I need some input on a probelm which I have been running into lately in large MTTs - I am interested in as many points of view as I can get:

Here is the situation:

450+ player MTT with low buyin; 20 or so get paid though it really doesn;t mean anything unless you are top 3

late in tourney with about 58 ppl left - blinds at 300-600+ 50 ante so there is 1,350 to start

All fold to MP player (relatively active over the last few rounds around the table) who open for a std table raise of 3x BB.

Folded around to me in SB and I have 2-2. My stack is a little over 9,000 - close to 7 rounds

With pot of 3125 I push all in and get called by MP raise who has A-K.

Flop is x-x-x with x being all above my 2s and below his A-K. When an A pops on the turn I am done for the night.

Here are four ways I have come up with to look at problem and would love some feedback -

1) Fold - if raise equals pair I am a big dog and two high cards would result in race. I am through the blinds and can wait for a better opportunity to get my money in.

2) Raise all-in - dwindling stack size is putting pressure on me to accumulae some chips. Active player could be raising with lots of hands so likelihood of unpaired high cards is relatively good. if called probably be in race or if no call I just add 33%+ to my stack.

3) Raise about 4.5 - 5k: though willing to put in all the chips, likely to get info on viability of hand based on response - i.e. reraise probably a mid/high pair; call probably low pair or high cards; also possbile fold. If rerasied all in could decide not to play and still have 5k or so to make my next round with. If smooth call then depending on flop could push all-in (if mid cards then)or check if something likely to have hit player comes;

and finally, 4) Call: Does smooth calling the raise give me the best shot at losing the least amount while still giving me the ability to win at least the pre-flop money in pot? i.e. if I smooth call and flop comes out like it did - J-6-4 (i think) then A-K, K-Q, etc most likely would fold to an all-in push, no? If high cards come, then I lose 1,800 and still have 5.5 rounds to make something happen.

REALLY would like comments on the different approaches and whether any of my reqsoning makes sense in any of the approaches, which one seems like the "right" play here?

Thanks for taking out the time to read all this...I have been playing for about 2 years and, lately, find myself quite frequently finishing these MTT relatively close to the money bubble and would like to elevate the game....especially as I consider moveing to the higher buy-in events.

Thanks again!

[source99]

I feel like i have bubbled recently in a lot of similiar situations recently where I reraised AIPF.
Usually I suspected a steal and was hoping to take it down right there but the player called with marginal hands and we raced and I lost.

If you smooth call PF do you think he lays down to an all-in bet on the flop?
If you smooth call PF you definately have the option of folding on the flop.

My gut instinct says re-raise all in preflop but i've been burned so often recently that folding or calling look appetizing

[PoliticalRefugee]

there's better spots to push than there surely. i mean 22!

At BEST you're racing, just let it go and find a better spot.

[paddymcg21]

I rarely give hands like 22 a look in at this stage in a tourney. If you really wanna play it though i prefer a stop n go.

[Sherman]

You need FE for a 22 shove to be profitable here. You don't have any. Let it go.

[TFGoose]

Calling is horrible. Even if you flop your set and get paid for your entire stack, you still messed up because you weren't getting the odds you needed PF to try to do that. So it's either fold or push. Pushing is only good if you feel there is a very good chance your opponent will fold. If he's capable of folding small-medium pairs here, as well as weak Aces and Kings, then it might be profitable. Otherwise, just dump it.

--TFGoose

[4CardStraight]

This is not hard.

We fold 22 with action in front where we will not be getting any fold equity due to our stack size. There is a very decent chance that he has 33 - AA and we are crushed. most times he will instacall with overs and we dont like it much.

You just paid the blinds, and have a stack that has some fold equity from an open push. Wait until you have the situation where you are folded to, you have a pair or a face card, or two suited cards, and open push.

Playing a stack of under 10BB is easy. We never smooth call in position unless we have a big pair. We only reraise with premium hands (hands that are better than the opening range of the guy that opened), and we open push almost anything when its folded to us. We can also smooth call from the blinds planning to push any flop, if the raiser is someone that plays weakly after the flop (and by weakly I mean they only like to continue when they improve)

The reason that we do this, is we much prefer to win hands without a showdown. Our stack size is not real good, doubling up is OK, but we would generally prefer to get there without even showing cards. We gain fold equity by open pushing, we occasionally can stop and go if the situation is perfect, and we try to maximize what other people will put in the pot when we have monsters... But we dont resteal, since our stack size demands a call with anything they opened with.

Here a stop and go is possible... Flat call and push all flops. It just depends on the player, is this someone that will fold Ace high after the flop when you push? If not, then dont stop and go. There are plenty of players out there that will fold on the flop for a pot size bet or less if they dont improve. There are also plenty that will not fold anything on the flop if you try to stop and go them, learn to identify which is which and only stop and go those that can fold post flop.

Otherwise, try to maximize your fold equity with a short stack by open pushing. Small pairs are decent to open push, and generally should be instamucked when someone else raises first.


4card

[helter skelter]

My opinion is, since the OP said the raiser has been relatively active, he is more likely to have a substandard hand that would fold to an allin raise.

We know now that he wouldn't because he had AK, but even against overs like AK that he will call with, 22 is even money or slight favorite.

And isn't there a possibility that he might even fold a hand that would dominate us like 33 - 55?

I would be inclined to re-raise allin.