New Tool: Am I a Winner?

[uDevil]

You can use this to determine how confident you can be that you are a winning player.

Note: Be careful when you enter # of hands-- if you enter winrate and sd in units of /100 hands, then if you've actually played 10,000 hands, you should enter 100 (hundreds of hands) in this field.


http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/winlose.htm

[Lego05]

Quick tutorial on how to know what to put in for standard deviation please.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick tutorial on how to know what to put in for standard deviation please.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have PokerTracker, go to the Sessions Tab->More Detail.

For on-line full-ring limit, ~16 BB/100 is pretty typical. For short-handed limit, it's a little higher, maybe ~18 BB/100. For NL cash, SnGs, or MTTs, I'm not sure, but a search should turn up some numbers.

Edit: If you tell me what game you play I'll do a search for some numbers.

[Lego05]

NL cash 6 max.

[Lego05]

I'm not sure I'm doing this right:

Over my last 31,500 hands I have a 8.26 winrate and PT standard deviation says 37.7976.

When I put this in as the per 100 hands I get 99.99% confidence and when I put it in as one hands I get 100%.

Oh wait never mind. This is just confidence that I am winner, not that, that is my winrate, right? This makes sense then if that's true.....it's also much less interesting to me though.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I'm doing this right:

Over my last 31,500 hands I have a 8.26 winrate and PT standard deviation says 37.7976.

When I put this in as the per 100 hands I get 99.99% confidence and when I put it in as one hands I get 100%.

Oh wait never mind. This is just confidence that I am winner, not that, that is my winrate, right? This makes sense then if that's true.....it's also much less interesting to me though.

[/ QUOTE ]

To look at winrate confidence, you might try this:

http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm

Note that in this case, you just enter total number of hands, i.e. 31500 hands in your case. I know that's confusing, sorry.

[Lego05]

Thanks, I have to leave, but I'll look at that later.

Also sorry if I sounded rude....this is still a very nice program (I was just confused at first) and I could see myself linking here over and over again when new players post with their 856 hand sample and want to know everything about their game. This is actually a pretty useful tool.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]

Also sorry if I sounded rude.... This is actually a pretty useful tool.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not rude at all. I'm not sure the other link I gave you will be exactly what you're looking for either. Now I'm thinking you probably want to know "How confident can I be that my winrate is >x." If so, you can just use Excel with the following equation

=normsdist((winrate-x)*sqrt(n)/sd)

Using your numbers w/ a range of x, I get

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
WR (BB/100) x (BB/100) sd(BB/100)n (/100) Confidence (%)
8.26 5 37.8 315 0.9371
8.26 6 37.8 315 0.8557
8.26 7 37.8 315 0.7229
8.26 8 37.8 315 0.5486
8.26 9 37.8 315 0.3641
8.26 10 37.8 315 0.2070

</pre><hr />

So you can see the program doesn't do anything that fancy, but thanks for the compliment.

Edited to correct # hands.