200/400 hand vs. sbrubgy 6 handed

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
the whole "whitelimes hand is face up so aba will bluff" is imo wrong... at these stakes, guys are definitely going to be erring on the side of hero calls. basically every draw missed, so this is really easy for rugby to fake a missed draw, overbet knowing that whitelime is thinking "man i cant let these guys push me around".

[/ QUOTE ]

seems kinda inconsistent with the flop/turn play, but i never watch him play so i don't know.

[restrikt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With Aba's aggro image, I don't think he ever checks this board twice with a set...

[/ QUOTE ]
think a few levels higher

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is whitelime. Probably scared money at these stakes (I could be wrong), and probably doesn't want to play a huge pot with Aba.

That, and Aba is normally very aggro.

How often is Whitelime going to call a C/R in a small pot on the turn against ABA to make playing a set like this profitable with his image?

[HP]

Option 1:

1) Take the top 1/3 of your hand range
2) Don't fold with it
3) Profit

Option 2:

1) Get into a leveling war with Aba
2) Win the 'paper rock scissors' game
3) Profit

[Python49]

The % of the time that he's bluffing here is not higher than the % of time he's value betting imo. I don't think aba would be over betting more often here on a bluff than on a made hand he wants paid off.

[legend42]

Would he flat-call preflop with AA from the SB?

Tough spot, but it just doesn't feel like a bluff, since you both know naked trips are almost impossible for him. So I think he can beat or tie AK.

[Micturition Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Option 1:

1) Take the top 1/3 of your hand range
2) Don't fold with it
3) Profit

Option 2:

1) Get into a leveling war with Aba
2) Win the 'paper rock scissors' game
3) Profit

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow, an absolutely perfect summary of the situation.

Incidentally it's interesting to see how game theory is slowly percolating down into more and more strategy discussions.

I actually have a feeling Aba is not bluffing often enough in this situation, given his solid style of play (compared to a random Euro player who is probably bluffing too often here), but unfortunately someone already spilled the beans about what his hand was so I might just be biased.

I have seen a couple of hands where Aba goes for a big overbet value bet when he thinks it's hard to put him on a big hand (in this case because it's really hard to put him on a big king, in other cases because he bluffed earlier streets and then bdoored a straight or something.)

[yellowsub]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a high stakes player by any means, but I've watched sbrugby play quite a bit. I doubt very much that he's overbetting without a big hand here. 3 nines a the least, more likely a boat. He's not calling from the blind with a worse King, he probably checks the river with a marginal hand. You're obviously only beating a bluff, and you've repped a big hand so I don't think sbrugby is going to throw $30,000 away without a stronger one. (i.e. fold river.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen ABA do this with air and big hands, the interesting thing about this hand is that ABA probably thinks whitelime is somewhat scared money in this game, and that's a hell of a river bet to call with just a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

which is why i lean toward a call

[FoxwoodsFiend]

my first thought was call but then i realized that he probably thinks you're scared money so his usual "seems to have it when he overbets" pattern doesn't matter much. also, next time before you play you might want to hire Salazar as a consultant: he really does seem to have the sickest reads on these games.

[BLdSWtTRs]

I don't know how you call this. He knows you have KQ or KJ almost every time. And how often is an overbet from him like that a bluff.

Really dissapointing if you called.

[Moonshine]

Aba knows you have to fold 2/3 of the time to make a bluff here profitable. he also obviously knows you have a K. you're a thinking player who is capable of making a big call down here. i dont think he would ever think he could get you to fold more than 2/3 of the time here...

i'd lay it down