THINKING 'BOUT FOLD EQUITY

[Rainclouds]

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P.S rain you have a typo in your maths (1-0.65) should be (1-0.35)

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You are right, I just noticed lol

[Acevader]

Right, self-learning check:

If we have 3 villians at 35%, 15% and 40% then the probability of a call are 1-(0.65)*(0.85)*(0.6) = 67%

Correct? Thus with a 20bb you could bet 10bb in mathematical terms. But stats and past performance aside if you do that you are getting called or raised [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Rainclouds]

Correct.

On a side note - you should not change your CB sizing to your odds, because
1) your bet sizing influences the odds
2) you give off an (exploitable) tell

[Acevader]

Agree and I don't - I raise in the same manner and bet the flop in the same manner every single hand. Even if I flop the nuts and lock the board up. I use the maths as a check but very often use it to try and inform firing 2nd rounds on the turn.

[chimpanzepoopdic]

Question: Excluding tells and reads from previous hands played does "feel" = The powers of estimation used to adjust your actions (Bet,Check,Call,Raise,CR,or Bet call) and properly size your bets in order to avoid loss and maximize profit based on Pot Equity + Fold Equity compared to the present and future pots odds you are laid.

Does Fold Equity plus Pot Equity = the estimated strength of your opponent(s) hand + the potintial strength of a draw your oppontent(s) might have based on the range of hands your opponent may hold compared to, the estimated strength of your hand + the potential strength of any draw you may have + the % of time that you feel your opponent(s) will fold to a properly sized bet.

Is there a perfect bet that will maximize Fold Equity without risking to much and during the play of a hand the farther away you get from this bet the more or less your fold equity will be. Yes/No

[chimpanzepoopdic]

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For example on the turn say you have a 28% chance of improving your draw on the river to the winning hand and feel if you make a ½ pot size bet that your opponent will fold 30% of the time, due to previous action, chipstacks and so forth (your fold equity would be 30%). Therefore you estimate the equity on such an action as 58%.

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You can't just add up the equities; if you have 30% to win but you are 100% sure someone will fold, you will end up with an equity of 130%! That can never be right [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Also, the potsize is different when someone calls or folds, so you have to account for that in your calculations.

Yesterday I did a calculation for this in this thread; use it as an example.

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Obviously your equity could never equal 130% So should I look at it this way.
Lets say I have a nut draw with a 28% chance to improve. Johny will fold 50% of the time if I bet on the turn.
If he does call the other 50% of the time I will win 28% of those times he calls with my draw.
Therefore my total equity = 50% + 28% of 50 which would be 64.
yes/no

[Rainclouds]

You indeed have 64% chance to win the hand.
But, when he folds, you win a small pot and when he calls, you win or lose a big pot. So while you have 64% chance of winning, 50% of it 'weighs less' in terms of money won.

[ADK]

I just realized I do not have a fecking clue how to calculate this stuff and how it benefits me.. anyone have any links or suggestions to where I can study this and improve on it?

[punter11235]

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I just realized I do not have a fecking clue how to calculate this stuff and how it benefits me.. anyone have any links or suggestions to where I can study this and improve on it?

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Here is the quick instruction how to estimate needed FE at the table :

[ADK]

thanks looks good, will get a good read at it soon