Which choice on turn?

[Jim Morgan]

Playing a game with few pre-flop raises, but somewhat aggressive post flop, I get dealt KhKd on the button. After 5 limpers, I raise. All but the SB call and we see a flop with 7 BBs. (assume SB = rake)

Ts9s7c.

To me, this is a BAD flop. I'm praying I don't face a bet and a raise (or more) here. As nice as my hand is, I could quite easily be drawing almost dead.

I don't know if I could fold here to a bet and a raise and several callers, but I would want to. Seems like my hand is a significant underdog to the field even if it is currently the best hand.

In this hand the BB leads out and 4 people call. Since I think this is a bad flop and my hand is one turn card away from being a total POS, I call. I know others support raising here, but let's set that aside for now and at least agree that smooth calling is a rational play.

Pot now at 10 BB

The turn comes 7s. Again the BB leads out and there are 4 callers.

Raise or call?

My question is not just about this hand. This kind of situations comes up a lot and the variables shift depending upon the flop and how it has played out. My question is more focussed on having a general clue about raising into somewhat dangerous boards with large pots with a fragile, but fairly strong hand like this one.

In this situation, If I raise and get called, I'm pretty happy, but if I get reraised, I have 18-20:1 odds on 2-4 outs (or I'm leading vs
hands like 9T or JJ) So now it seems like I have to call it the reraise and river on the off chance that villian actually had a hand like JJ that I beat.

I could have called and seen a cheap river or I could raise on what I am hoping is a situation with favorable equity.

Raising feels like spew when I am beat and get-rerasied. Even if I miss, I probably need to call to defend against 9T, JJ, QQ or maniac.

Calling feels like a wimpy way to play. My pot equity could easily be 50% or more and failing to raise leaves a lot of money on the table.

It seems like a math problem

Will I get 3-bet and lose (either to a hand that beats me now, or one that outdraws me) so often that I lose more here than I gain when I either have the best hand or get lucky on the river.

With this pot and relative position to the better, it seems impossible to really protect the pot since if I am 3-bet I am usually behind and the callers are not likely to fold for one more bet.

Put me UTG, and I think rasising is clearly correct, and most likely waiting until the turn is correct too because now some draws simply won't call 2 bets cold.

So, which is more likely, Raising is spew or calling is being a little girl?

Jim