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#11
11-16-2007, 04:56 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 NL
[ QUOTE ]
I also don't think many TAGs C/R the turn with the made flush and then bet the paired river because there isn't much value in it. If he does have the flush there aren't too many hands that can flat call his river bet that he beats - so I think a made flush is more likely to check-call the river to entice a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong IMO. Once you call the turn, it looks like you checked back a Queen on the flop for PC/Value. Why would he ever want to give you a chance to check behind the river? Look, you're considering calling him with 77. Isn't that reason enough for him to value bet the river? Also, basically, all you've considered so far was his postflop action. Let's think about the types of hands a 12/7 first-calls OOP preflop with. Pairs 22-TT. And argueably: AJ, AQ, KQ, maybe suited connectors Feel free to disagree. IMO, he has a lone Ace of spades here rarely. Finally, let's look at the turn/river. He raised the turn and you called. What reason does he have for thinking you'll fold on the Queen river, which really could only have improved your hand, whatever it was? I'm not saying this is a clear fold or a clear call. I'm just saying, it seems like you're convincing yourself that Villain can't have anything here. 
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#12
11-16-2007, 05:06 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 NL
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I also don't think many TAGs C/R the turn with the made flush and then bet the paired river because there isn't much value in it. If he does have the flush there aren't too many hands that can flat call his river bet that he beats - so I think a made flush is more likely to check-call the river to entice a bluff. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong IMO. Once you call the turn, it looks like you checked back a Queen on the flop for PC/Value. Why would he ever want to give you a chance to check behind the river? Look, you're considering calling him with 77. Isn't that reason enough for him to value bet the river? .... Finally, let's look at the turn/river. He raised the turn and you called. What reason does he have for thinking you'll fold on the Queen river, which really could only have improved your hand, whatever it was? I'm not saying this is a clear fold or a clear call. I'm just saying, it seems like you're convincing yourself that Villain can't have anything here. [/ QUOTE ] Now this is where the multiple level thinking gets very tricky. I agree with you that if he has the flush he should VB the river IF he puts me on a queen. But I'm not convinced that he's putting me on a queen. I think my line could also be construed as the lone A or K of spades or perhaps something like J/10 that hit the turn. If he puts me on a lone spade or a 10 then he never should VB this river, but he can bluff it. If he puts me on a Q then the only way he can VB the river is with a FH or the flush. As to your final comment, if he made a PSB it's no problem - a simple fold for me. This entire debate is based on the fact that he gave me pretty good odds to call on the river, which is why I'm wondering if he's bluffing more than 30% of the time. I called FWIW and will share the results if you like. ts-
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#14
11-16-2007, 05:36 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 N
Okay, so does that make this a fold for you on the river?
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#15
11-16-2007, 07:14 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 N
[ QUOTE ]
its a super easy river valuebet with a flush [/ QUOTE ] of course [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#16
11-16-2007, 07:15 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 N
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so does that make this a fold for you on the river? [/ QUOTE ] the river essentially doesnt matter we need to decide by the turn if we're folding because the river is a blank
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#17
11-16-2007, 07:17 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 N
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Okay, so does that make this a fold for you on the river? [/ QUOTE ] the river essentially doesnt matter we need to decide by the turn if we're folding because the river is a blank [/ QUOTE ] correct. cant call the turn if we rnt calling most rivers (this being a snapcall river)
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#18
11-16-2007, 07:43 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 N
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] its a super easy river valuebet with a flush [/ QUOTE ] of course [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] the student thinks its a check/call to induce, I disagree and think its a super easy vbet
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#19
11-16-2007, 07:48 AM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 N
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] its a super easy river valuebet with a flush [/ QUOTE ] of course [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] the student thinks its a check/call to induce, I disagree and think its a super easy vbet [/ QUOTE ] you're right
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#20
11-16-2007, 01:20 PM
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Re: I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 N
okay, i see that my line here for a flush OOP on the river is in the minority. i'm not surprised and i think this is a leak in my game - i think i'm passing up on too many river VBs. thanks for the feedback.
ts-
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