#1
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400: QQ Flop Multiway
Villain is vdl07 whom I only have stats for reads at 41/4/1.3. The players behind me are a bunch of tags.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> SB ($236) BB ($981.40) UTG ($357.40) UTG+1 ($396) Hero ($346.10) MP2 ($394) MP3 ($833.70) CO ($1145.65) Button ($414.05) Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, MP2 calls $20, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $20, SB calls $18, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $16. Flop: ($104) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $80</font>, Hero ? If I call here, the pot will be UTG's remaining stack...assuming everyone else folds. |
#2
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
What's your image?
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#3
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
Nitty I'm sure, but I'm not sure UTG considers that.
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#4
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
This looks like a set on the first look, but I think the range of a 41/4/1.3 could be much wider here, like betting out with a smaller overpair (77 maybe for overpair + gut shot) or even a NFD. What do you think of this range?
12,173,264 games 8.500 secs 1,432,148 games/sec Board: 6h 5s 3h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 66.848% 65.82% 01.03% 8012039 125487.00 { QdQh } Hand 1: 33.152% 32.12% 01.03% 3910251 125487.00 { 99-22, ATs-A2s, 87s } Can't see one of the TAGs behind you entering the pot BTW, this flop shouldn't have hit them, right? Sucks balls if there is still a set waiting to act behind you.. |
#5
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
Ugh, this is such an awkward spot. I never know what to do here. I think I either would flat call and risk pricing in players behind me or make a very small raise (this may be a legitimate spot for a min-raise?), and fold if any of the TAGS behind me push but call if UTG pushes.
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#6
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
I hate it but I fold
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#7
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
[ QUOTE ]
I hate it but I fold [/ QUOTE ] same |
#8
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
[ QUOTE ]
I hate it but I fold [/ QUOTE ] |
#9
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Re: 400: QQ Flop Multiway
Calling or minraising are clearly the worst things you can do, it’s shove or fold.
Before doing the math I would have always folded here and somewhat hated it, but it actually looks like a shove to me: Assumptions: UTG will call shove with their entire range, tags will fold all draws to a shove from us, SB is check-raising (or check-calling shove) with vulnerable made hand 1/3 of the time they hit and no one just called with AA or KK preflop (might be wrong assumption I have never played 2/4 before). So individually tags behind crush us (90% favorite) each 1/8 times (hitting set with PP or 2 pair/combo draw/straight/set with suited connectors), UTG beats us 33% of the time (from alex’s range), and SB crushes us (90% favorite) 1/8 of the time => 100% * [(1-(0.9)*(1/8))^2*(1-(0.9)*(1/3)(1/8))] = .758% equity against non UTG players and 66% equity against UTG. => 50% equity overall. Taking into account the fact that UTG is probably not calling a shove with their entire range, there is considerable dead money in the pot, and one of the TAGs might not have played their hand perfectly, doesn’t this have to be a shove? |
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