wierd spot vs pf l/rr, how's my thought process

[yourface]

villain is loose/bad. no idea what his l/rr is but I definately don't give immediate respect for a big hand.

how is my thought process for this hand?

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) yourface is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">yourface raises to $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $15</font>, SB folds, yourface calls.

raise for value.
l/rr OTB what the hell. he could have a big hand but he could also have cheese/AX/smallPP/who knows.


Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($35, 2 players)
yourface checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $5</font>, yourface calls.

bah crappy board. I still have decent equity vs the range I gave him and the pot is big, so I'm not folding yet. he most likely has a bunch of outs though if he is behind so I need to be careful.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($45, 2 players)
yourface checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $10</font>, yourface calls.

not really the card I wanted to see. the only hands I will get value from with a bet are non-spade overpairs and maybe non-spade pair hands. I will check to induce a bluff from his totally busted hands and a bet from his good pairs.

in hindsight maybe a bet here is better, folding to a raise. I don't know how likely he is to bet the turn with non-flush hands. what do you think?

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($65, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">yourface bets $10</font>,

if I c/c I think that he will check behind most of his non-flush hands and I just end up getting valuetowned by his flushes. if I donk he will probably look me up with all his pairs because he is dumb. even if the bet is not for value, so long as I intend on paying 1 bet for a showdown it is better to put it in as the aggressor.

opinions/comments?

[danzasmack]

I usually c/c the river. You have to include the "horrible river bet bluffs" like when he bets A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] which vs. you is correct what, 1/10000?

What would be the correct thing for him to do vs. you with what hands - let him do the opposite.

[Raskolnikov47]

I played around with your hand on poker stove and though I know it's not really your question, I did notice that your equity goes up a lot on the turn (which intuitively makes sense, you have any non-spade hand crushed) and is all the way at 65% on the river with some reasonable assumptions about his range.

I don't think you can fold a spade in his hand so your river bet is strictly "for value." There's an extremely good chance of a bluff raise on this board, so I think your bet is actually a commitment to call a raise too. You actually probably welcome a raise since he's more likely to bluff raise here than to value raise (he's more likely to have nothing than to have a big flush). Your player knowledge seems to factor heavily into this decision. If you are right that he really would call down on this board with any ace / pocket pair etc, then I like your play. I also like your play if you think that he is almost certain to try a bluff raise here if he missed. Ultimately, you are ahead 2/3s of the time or so on this river.

Against a more normal opponent who is less caught up in making "tricky plays," less sticky, and perhaps not so aggressive to auto bluff-raise, I'd be more inclined to check call. Their turn play represents a hand that is beating you. You can only make more money if they were bluffing and bluff again. You may save a bet on the river if they have some random spade and figure you do as well (due to your turn call) and decide not to bet it (though they certainly would have called). Of course, if they have a high spade, you only lose one more bet.

The two factors that make leading against this opponent good (where it would be bad against a normal opponent):

1. You view him as "sticky"
2. You've seen him try to be "tricky"

This means he'll call with almost any hand and could try a raise with almost any hand. Since you figure to be ahead 2/3s of the time, adding 1 or 2 bets to the pot figures to be good for you.

In the bizarre 1/2 games I sometimes find myself in, you could almost take this logic to an extreme and 3 bet this kind of opponent if he raises. I saw one guy bluff re-re-re-raise on the river 3 times in 150 hands the other night. You'd have to believe there was almost no information content in his raising to do that though and that's not true for almost any players. So bet/call against him and check/call against normal humans.