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#1
11-08-2007, 05:53 PM
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Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
Judgements like these are usually *not* what good trades are made of. You are predicting, in effect telling Market what to do, instead of listening to what Market is saying via price and volume.
Examples: " When supermodels get quoted in the news, the market has to be at an extreme and due for a reversal." "The dollar is oversold." "interest rate cuts that the market has already priced in. " "When the market doesn't get the cuts, the dollar should rally hard." Most of the time, I notice that Market does not ever have to get in sync with my trading. No, Mr. Now always has to get in sync with what Market is saying, now. What you seem to be doing here is kind of telling Market what to do. Plus, now that you have a) taken a position and b) gone public with it (even under a pseudonym) you probably find yourself defending your analysis, "filtering in" what agrees, and "filtering out" what does not. Be careful. You might want to sell all your positions and take a fresh look at what Market might actually be saying now. With no position to defend, no ax to grind, you might get a less filtered view of what Market actually says. You can always put those positions back on after you complete the cognitive exercise. . . Price and volume often foreshadow "the news". Trend followers, sensitive to Market messaging in price and volume, often: 1. Establish small positions early based on these messages; 2. Establish these positions without knowing "why" price and volume are sending the message; 3. Add to these positions when Market delivers confirming messages; 4. Stop buying, and hold, for the strongest segment of the move; 5. Listen and notice when the trend is weakening, and start scaling out. Adept Trend followers often receive pleasant "surprises" from "news". Trend followers with excellent listening skills might be able to notice lots of trends, like the dollar-down trend, relatively early in the move. Clearly hearing Market speak is mostly an exercise in Empathy 
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#3
11-08-2007, 10:56 PM
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Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
For the record, Mr. Now engages in trading trends-- not "counter" trends.
Genuine trading in genuine trends is not supported by strongly held beliefs about the validity of predictions. The prediction idea leads to other rigid beliefs about specific future price movement, such as "the dollar has to bottom soon", "gold is overbought and must fall", etc. The dollar might bottom. The dollar might rise, fall, or move sideways. ArturiusX might think Mr. Now's trading philosophy sucks, or doesn't suck, etc. None of this matters since the dollar and ArturiusX behave as they intend to behave now, regardless of any predictions about them.
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#5
11-08-2007, 11:22 PM
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Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
[ QUOTE ]
For the record, Mr. Now engages in trading trends-- not "counter" trends. Genuine trading in genuine trends is not supported by strongly held beliefs about the validity of predictions. The prediction idea leads to other rigid beliefs about specific future price movement, such as "the dollar has to bottom soon", "gold is overbought and must fall", etc. The dollar might bottom. The dollar might rise, fall, or move sideways. ArturiusX might think Mr. Now's trading philosophy sucks, or doesn't suck, etc. None of this matters since the dollar and ArturiusX behave as they intend to behave now, regardless of any predictions about them. [/ QUOTE ] I wasn't talking to you, but what you're saying makes zero sense.
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#8
11-09-2007, 12:31 AM
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Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
[ QUOTE ]
No [censored], get confirmation of some kind that gives you a good probability of putting in a successful trade. [/ QUOTE ] It's basic high probability trading. On uptrends, you wait for pullbacks and set a stop below the pullback. It's more art than science.
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#9
11-09-2007, 01:27 AM
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Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] For the record, Mr. Now engages in trading trends-- not "counter" trends. Genuine trading in genuine trends is not supported by strongly held beliefs about the validity of predictions. The prediction idea leads to other rigid beliefs about specific future price movement, such as "the dollar has to bottom soon", "gold is overbought and must fall", etc. The dollar might bottom. The dollar might rise, fall, or move sideways. ArturiusX might think Mr. Now's trading philosophy sucks, or doesn't suck, etc. None of this matters since the dollar and ArturiusX behave as they intend to behave now, regardless of any predictions about them. [/ QUOTE ] I wasn't talking to you, but what you're saying makes zero sense. [/ QUOTE ] I think Mr.Now is articulating one of the most fundamental psychological aspects of trading. It doesn't matter why a market is doing what it is doing. It only matters that it is doing it and for you to be on the correct side of the trade (remembering there are 3 positions to take in a trade). Using language such as 'the market should do this...or the price has to do that' just reaffirms your biases about the market direction based on your beliefs. You can't force the market because it will do whatever it wants regardless of your position, the percieved fundamentals, or whether or not the next losing trade will force you to throw yourself under a subway train. This is the primary reason why I try my best to avoid watching and reading financial press. Thing is, I find it entertaining, but acting on information I get from Barrons, CNBC, WSJ, Fishead or Shoe is -EV for me.
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Hybrid Mode
