NFL Week 4 player props thread

[silentbob]

Consistent with the new board policy, this thread is for everyone's picks, not just mine.

I have only a few picks so far. Many NFL teams have gotten really pass-happy so far this season, which partially explains why some of my picks have been disastrous. So I'm gonna try to avoid most QB props until the lines adjust accordingly.

Willie Parker under 110.5 rushing yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). Although FWP is one of the very few RBs who has consistently produced thus far, Arizona's rush defense is actually middle of the road. They held Gore to 55, S. Alexander to 70, and McGahee to 98. Also, with Ward out, Parker may get more passes thrown to him.

Derrick Ward under 84.5 rushing yards at -120 for 2 units (VIP/BetGameDay). The Eagles have a top 10 rush defense, B. Jacobs might get carries, and Ward is questionable himself. Beyond that, the Giants still have a pretty horrible defense and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles dominate time of possession.

Dallas Clark under 64.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line is down to 60.5 right now. Clark killed me last week. I'm betting against him again because frankly, the line seems like an overcompensation. Peyton is targeting him somewhat more this season, but the fact remains that Clark has exceeded 64 yards in only 15 percent of his career games. The only reason why I'm not betting more is because Denver's awesome CBs will likely blanket Harrison and Wayne, which would force Peyton to look elsewhere.

Good luck, everyone.

YTD: 5-9, -4.68 units

[psuasskicker]

LaMont Jordan o90.5 yards -125 for a unit. What sealed it is that Miami is #29 in rushing D this year with almost 500 yards allowed in 3 games, and #22 at 4.3/carry allowed.

- C -

[MrFeelNothin]

This week I like Tony Romo u270.5 yds(-125)

The Dallas offense is really clicking right now, but this is an overcompensation, especially in a game the Boys will be running away with by halftime.

[silentbob]

Very intriguing. It is indeed an overcompensation, and the Rams haven't given up more than 201 passing yards to any QB yet this season. I am concerned that Dallas will pretty much own the ball, though. And if they score FGs instead of TDs, Romo could rack up stats while the game is still in reach.

[MrFeelNothin]

Theres always a chance he just goes off, but that line is very high, I'm thinking Romo's line will be more like 20-26 225 yds, 2 TD.

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
This week I like Tony Romo u270.5 yds(-125)

The Dallas offense is really clicking right now, but this is an overcompensation, especially in a game the Boys will be running away with by halftime.

[/ QUOTE ]


I must have been onto something since they moved the line all the way from 270.5 to 260.5.

[siccjay]

What do you think of Chad Pennington o205.5 passing yards?

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
I must have been onto something since they moved the line all the way from 270.5 to 260.5.

[/ QUOTE ]
Dammit. I woke up this morning ready to bet it, but will pass at 260.5 now. Nice job.

I did, however, bet a half-middle on Tom Brady passing TDs. It's over 2/+105 at Bodog and under 2.5/-120 at VIP/BetGameDay. 14 to 1 odds on him having 2 TD passes seems +EV to me.

The Ward line is gone, from what I can tell, probably due to his injury. The Clark line is down 3 yards. The Parker line has also moved down by 5 yards, although I'm a bit concerned because the Cardinals will likely play without Boldin.

I have one additional bet:

Roddy White under 80.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). Big-time overcompensation here. IIRC, the line for him two weeks ago was about half this much. White has emerged as the #1 receiver for the Falcons in the past couple of games, but this line is still grossly deviant from his career stats. He's surpassed this total in only a quarter of his games. Also, he's the type of receiver who doesn't rack up many receptions. When he's gone above 80 yards, it's always been due to making one long reception of 50 yards. Looking at the Texans pass defense thus far in 2007, they've given up a 74-yarder to Steve Smith and a 64-yarder to Reggie Wayne. White is nowhere near their class. That said, I'm still a little skittish about betting 2 units with the Falcons passing game starting to click a bit. Then again, it IS Joey Harrington.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of Chad Pennington o205.5 passing yards?

[/ QUOTE ]
I almost never bet overs but if I did, this would not be a bad one. Buffalo's secondary is horrible.

One more bet:

Adrian Peterson under 80.5 rushing yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). This is more playing-time based than anything else. Chester Taylor is inexplicably the Vikings starter, so I'd be shocked to see Peterson get more than 15 carries. He's certainly good enough to crack 80 yards in limited carries, but Green Bay's run defense is fairly stout (and shut down LT2 last week). I can also see the Vikings playing catch-up and not running as much.

[SonnyJay]

I'm on

Hasselbeck: Under 238.5 passing yards (-120)
Chambers: Under 90.5 receiving yards (-120)
Harrison: Under 87.5 receiving yards (-120)
1 unit each

These have all moved since then (229.5, 80.5, 78.5 respectively, don't like them at those numbers). The rationale was based on my belief that the lines didn't fully account for the likely DB matchups. I have Harrison and Chambers in the 60s against Bailey and Asomugha, and I think that the Seattle WRs could have trouble against the SF defensive backs.