silentbob's NBA chase thread, 12/06 - Page 3

silentbob · #21 12-27-2006, 11:34 AM

2-1 for the night, although Milwaukee was the team I needed most to lose given the short length of their trip. Memphis for 6 units tonight is dicey but hopefully Phoenix can drop the hammer if it doesn't work out.

I got in at -500 for the Spurs game last night, and apparently the line dropped to -400ish when Ginobili was ruled out for the game. Things were looking okay but the Spurs blew it in the 4th. Blech.

Oh well, also fading the 76ers for a second unit. Hard to see them sweeping the final six games of the road trip. May even go for a third if all goes well, but I don't want to get too greedy.

YTD, games: 17-12
YTD, road trips: 17-0, +12 units (Milwaukee pending)

silentbob · #22 12-27-2006, 08:35 PM

For the record -- Memphis at -124, Sacramento at -323.

Passing on fading the Celtics for a second unit. None of the remaining teams on their trip have a winning record.

silentbob · #23 12-27-2006, 11:57 PM

Okay, so I just realized that Milwaukee ain't playing Phoenix next as indicated in the first post above. They're playing at Cleveland, an Eastern Conference team. Which means their current road trip technically doesn't qualify as a play under the system. But I've already bet (and lost) both of their games thus far. I can handle the losses, but how should I account for these bets for purposes of this thread?

silentbob · #24 12-29-2006, 08:03 PM

Phoenix at -900 for 1 unit against the Knicks. Passing on the Hawks even though they suck, because Houston and San Antonio are both pretty banged up (and because Toronto's in the East).

Aborting the Bucks series for reasons stated above. So should I count the two previous losses for the system?

silentbob · #25 12-31-2006, 12:35 PM

The answer is no. Besides, Milwaukee lost to Cleveland, so if I had kept betting under the system, it would've been a winner. I'm swallowing the loss from a money standpoint already. Just gonna pretend it never happened.

Done with the Knicks, gonna fade Philadelphia for another unit. They got a win against Portland, but are facing stiffer competition towards the end of this trip. On the Lakers for 1 unit.

YTD, games: 19-11
YTD, road trips: 19-0, +19 units (fading a team multiple times counts as a separate "trip")

llabb · #26 12-31-2006, 03:49 PM

Great that the chase is working out for you so far. Haven't followed since I'm not interested in a variant of Martingaling, and wouldn't be comfortable putting a ton of units into chasing a single game.

I'm curious though - what's your expectation over the course of the season? How many trips do you expect to lose (1 loss per how many road trips)? Because if I'm reading it right, 1 loss (complete trip) could be a loss of well over 20 units, which would wipe out even a great 19-0 record so far.

silentbob · #27 01-05-2007, 06:11 PM

Given that there has only been one "loss" over the last few seasons in the NBA, and given that I've already said that I would pass on the riskier road trips, I would not expect to lose any times.

There are about 50 or so eligible road trips under the system. I'll probably pass on a dozen or so of them, and play several for more than one unit. Which means that in theory, I would end up with a profit of 40 to 50 units (mind you, given the inherent risk of a pseudo-Martingale, the unit size is very small for this system so I'm not exactly making a ton of money here).

But if I did lose once, it would knock me down to a small profit. Losing twice would result in a decent-sized loss. More than that is a minor disaster. But my hope is that passing on risky trips (e.g., 3-gamers, teams on hot streaks, elite Eastern teams to the extent that there are any) will help avoid such an outcome.

Anyway, just to clean up December, the Sixers lost to the Lakers on NYE.

YTD, games: 20-11
YTD, road trips: 20-0, +20 units

New thread for January coming up.