silentbob's Week 9 player props thread

[silentbob]

No silly Bodog props this week in the NFL, though their Breeder's Cup attendance one more than made up for that.

BetGameDay's props for the Sunday/Monday night games are okay, nothing really worth betting. IND vs. NE is too unpredictable IMO. "No" on Randy Moss scoring a TD at -160 is somewhat tempting given that Seattle defends opposing #1 WRs fairly well.

These are my picks:

Tiki Barber under 115.5 yards at -125 for 1 unit. Yes, he's the NFL's leading rusher, but this seems like a huge number to lay -- with Plexiglass likely out, I think the Texans will put 8 men in the box and dare Eli to beat them through the air. Tiki may also get a ton of yards receiving, which don't count here. He's rushed for over 115.5 yards only twice this season. Houston has allowed only one 100-yard rushing game (106 to Julius Jones).

Brett Favre under 230.5 passing yards at -120 for 1 unit. Favre has passed for over 220 yards twice this season, once against a horrible Lions defense. The Bills are at league average. Greg Jennings, who is the new big-play target for GB, is questionable with an ankle injury.

Tony Gonzalez under 5.5 receptions at -135 for 1 unit. The Rams are one of the best teams at defending TEs this season. They also suck against the run, which means the Chiefs may rely more on LJ. I expect the Rams will also try to play ball control (32 minutes/game at home), which would keep the Chiefs off the field more.

Warrick Dunn under 21.5 rushing attempts at -120 for 1 unit. Detroit is actually decent at stopping the run. Vick has been throwing the ball very well. Dunn has only run the ball over 21 times twice this season. Jerious Norwood's touches have been increasing over the past month. If I wanted to play any of this week's props for 2 units, this would be the one.

YTD: 12-2-1, +10.87 units

Good luck to all.

[Grasshopp3r]

Great record. Props have always interested me and I enjoy reading your analysis.

[easternbloc]

that is a pretty sick record to date. I am following you on the dunn prop and it looks good since the falcons are down and his rushing won't help them much.

[silentbob]

I appreciate all the kind words.

Thank goodness for the hook! It looked like Tiki would finish under fairly easily with the Giants running out the clock and Houston trying to stuff the run. Tiki had 101 yards and ripped off a 14-yard run (thank you for finally tackling him, C.C. Brown and Morlon Greenwood), which led to the 2-minute warning. But because the Texans were out of time outs, Eli kneeled three times and the game was over.

Tony Gonzalez helped the Chiefs take a big lead and fortunately Larry Johnson did the rest. The Rams were unable to finish off their long drives with scores, which allowed the Chiefs to run even more. I was worried when Tony G. had three catches at halftime -- he managed to get #5 with several minutes to go but the Rams pretty much had the ball for most of the 4th quarter.

The Favre bet was doomed as soon as Willis McGahee got hurt. Buffalo couldn't move the ball to save their life and GB had possession for most of the second and third quarters, which allowed Favre to rack up a ton of yards.

As for Dunn, totally should have doubled up because the game went as predicted and he didn't come even close.

The breaks are definitely going my way thus far, so I'm sure some bad beats are on the horizon.

This week: 3-1, +1.41 units
YTD: 15-3-1, +12.28 units

[whipsaw]

silentbob,

No props for tonight? I'm taking both Dillon over 14.5 attempts and Maroney over 65.5 yards against that awful Colts run D.

[silentbob]

While I agree that the Colts are horrible against the run, RB committees lead to unpredictability. I think you may end up hitting on one but probably not both. If I was forced to pick, it would be Dillon because Maroney hasn't topped 40 yards in a game since the first week of October.

And if the Colts jump out to a big lead, which is certainly conceivable, the Patriots may be forced into passing early and often. This game could go in seventeen different directions, which is why I'm staying away altogether.

[Thremp]

I'm taking Dillon under on rushing attempts.

Maroney gets bulk of carries. Pats don't rush 30 times this game. At +120 easy play.

[silentbob]

+120? Wow. Nice job.

With the discussion of weather and tonight's game in other threads, I've been lured into a small nibble on the under. I'm also gonna make one additional prop bet this week:

Oakland QBs under 15 pass completions at -120 for 1 unit. This isn't merely rain/wind-inspired -- in the 6 games that he's started, Andrew Walter has completed 10, 9, 14, 13, 17, and 5 passes. Under much more favorable weather conditions, no less. The Raiders have a decent RB in L. Jordan. Seattle is slightly below-average against the run, allowing L. Johnson and C. Taylor to rush for over 150 yards each in the last two games after a decent start to the season. I don't think Oakland will try to pass that much and even if they do, it's not like Walter has a great track record. It's unlikely that Tuiasosopo would do much better.

There are certainly other props out there that are potentially ripe for the picking (e.g., WR yardage for D. Branch and R. Moss), but the one above is most promising IMO. And I don't want to get too "ZOMG RAIN WIND FREE MONIES ON THE UNDERZZZZ!!1" about tonight's game. Knee-jerk bets never seem to work out for me. Which probably means Walter will go 18 for 25, 230 yards tonight.

[Thremp]

How do you think I felt when Dillon rushed 4 times on the first drive? WTF?

Thankfully the end of the game played out like I thought and we didn't see Dillon much. Still hurts when that 40% of the time you're wrong.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
The breaks are definitely going my way thus far, so I'm sure some bad beats are on the horizon.

[/ QUOTE ]
Halfway through the 4th quarter, Andrew Walter has 12 completions. Seattle has possession and runs off 6 minutes of clock before kicking a FG. Oakland gets the ball back, trailing 16-0 with 1:11 left, no timeouts:

[ QUOTE ]
1-10-OAK29 (1:11) (Shotgun) A.Walter pass short right to R.Moss to OAK 41 for 12 yards (K.Jennings).
1-10-OAK41 (:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Walter pass incomplete short right to R.Moss.
2-10-OAK41 (:44) (Shotgun) A.Walter pass to R.Curry to OAK 47 for 6 yards (L.Tatupu).
3-4-OAK47 (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Walter pass short middle to R.Moss to SEA 43 for 10 yards (K.Bentley).
1-10-SEA43 (:02) (No Huddle) A.Walter pass short right to R.Moss pushed ob at SEA 27 for 16 yards (K.Jennings).

[/ QUOTE ]
ROTFL.

This week: 3-2, +0.41 units
YTD: 15-4-1, +11.28 units