$100 Live FT. Push or fold?

[SamN]

4 Handed. 140,000 chips in play

Blinds have gone up to 3k/6k two hands ago.

I had been very active pushing with ok hands I think 3 times in the last 2 orbits. Twice of this was when I was in SB, with junk, but I had given him two walks previously to kinda set those up.

Playing to win.

People have not been calling light

Payouts:

1100
640
400
250

Stacks (approx)

HERO(UTG): 38k
BUTTON: 28k
SB: 40k
BB: 35k

HEROs HAND 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Push or fold?

[4CardStraight]

We need to establish a calling range.

If they are calling optimally (as though they have Xray vision) this is definitely -EV push. We are basically playing for stacks tho, and down to the final 4 they are probably calling somewhat tight. We are about to pay a big blind tho, and our M is only 4 so our range is going to be pretty wide.

Off the cuff, I am pushing here with:
33+ Any Ace, K9s, and any two broadway... So my gut says this is a fold.

It does depend how tight they are. Lets assign a tight range and run the math:

3k/6k prolly 500 ante too right? so 11k in the pot, we really need a calling range here I will just make one up:
55+, A2s+, ATo, KTs+, KJo+, QJs (15%). Thats pretty arbitrary, and people might be way looser or way tighter, but without any info...
With Ante:
So we are pushing 38k to win 11k in blinds, with a 87k pot

61% of the time, none of the 3 have a 15% hand: +T6600
39% of the time we are a 37/62 dog: -T2200

So with this calling range its +T4400 approximately, which is more than 10% of our stack. So my gut here is wrong

Without Ante:
38k to win 9k with a 85k pot

61% we win blinds: +T5500
39% we are 37/62: -T2600

Without ante if they call this tight its +T2900 chips net


So yeah they need to be calling pretty loose (correct) in order for it to be a fold here. Heres the math with a wider range (calling top 25%)

Push 38k to win 9k in blinds with 85k pot:

42% no one calls : +T3800
68% we are still a 37/62 dog : -T4450

So if we are called by top 25% hands it is a Neg ev push of T700 chips. A pokerstove 25% is 66+ A2s+,A7o,K6s+,K9o,Q8s+J8s+,T8s+ QTo,JTo.

I guess I dont really think K6s or T8s or QTo calls you here, but maybe. It is sure correct for them to do so, if you are pushing well, but most people play far too tight.

If you think your only called by something more like a top 10% hand, its not really close, its a push. With 3 people yet to act tho.. its tough.

So sorry for a long reply, but at least now you can see some of the reasoning. In a vacuum, with players like allen cunningham and chris fegurson behind you, this is a total freaking fold. It is simply not +EV to push this trash if we are called accurately wide. If however, we have average joes behind us, who are trying their best to fold to one higher pay level, who are likely folding things like A8o, K7s, J9s to an open push by UTG, then yeah we should push here, its +chipEV enough where its probably +$EV. In the first example with antes and a tighter than 15% calling range its well over 10% of our stack in +chip EV.

4Card

[BlueEcho]

Nice post 4card