barf (evaluating the relative strength of an overpair )

[nath]

Tonight's FTOPS event (200 rebuy). I don't really know villain (he's BIG_D_MONEY), but I assume that since he's here, with a decent stack, he isn't a typical unknown (i.e. stupid).

Now then...

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $100/$200
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $3500
UTG+1: $21904
MP1: $11500
MP2: $13291
MP3: $5805
Hero: $10850
Button: $4120
SB: $2070
BB: $6730

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $600</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($1500, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $1200</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3900, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $3000</font>, Hero throws up a little

[Bond18]

God damn it this spot [censored] sucks. 33-AA/AK/AQ are all in his potential range.

Considering he has launched out a very strong looking turn bet i might release.

I think 66-99 fire out more of a probing bet like 2000, where as 3000 is protecting a strongish hand.

Obv a read helps but we don't have one, so i'm gonna let him off the hook. I'm not sure which pairs i stack off with here, definately QQ, possibly JJ.

[DDBeast]

His bets look like he really doesn't want action. 66-99 wouldn't surprise. Although people do this with QQ/JJ too. I probably calldown.

[ZJ123]

[ QUOTE ]
His bets look like he really doesn't want action. 66-99 wouldn't surprise. Although people do this with QQ/JJ too. I probably calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

so when he shoves blank river, were allin?

[luckychewy]

i'd fold, but i don't really hate a push because you have the hand he expects you to have as it's probably the primary part of your range although tt is at the top of the mid pairs and he can easily be betting a draw here. i think calling here is pretty bad, it's not like we're in a situation where there are enough chips left that we can't get called by a worse hand or we have to worry about letting him hang himself on the river because there will only be a 1/2 pot bet left in stacks.

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
His bets look like he really doesn't want action. 66-99 wouldn't surprise. Although people do this with QQ/JJ too. I probably calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a 4000 bet says i don't want action more than a 3000. 3000 seems like protecting a hand hes mostly confident in, but thats just in my experience.

[registrar]

My feeling is that if you call here, he'll stop betting with any hand that you're beating (unless he overtakes on the river) but that he'll check call with those same hands on the river. Personally, I might fold here but I would suggest that this is wrong for you. I'd be folding if I thought that I had an edge over the table or unfolding strategies that are ruined if I lose half my stack (weak players who I am getting into pots with who are donating chips or a big stack who I am waiting for the right spot to break). Your game is stronger than mine so I would feel that it is probably worth calling to see the river (this is what I would do if I was feeling if I was just pleased to be here: I had a similar situation in a Stars $500 v. Lodden and a table of other really tough players and figured that wa/wb was about the best spot I was going to get.).

OTOH, I am fairly secure in the knowledge that my opponent knows that I have an overpair here whereas I would suggest that your range can be seen as a lot wider here and thus that villain is simply trying to blast you off a float. However, once you call the turn, you do define your hand.

Tricky.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
OTOH, I am fairly secure in the knowledge that my opponent knows that I have an overpair here whereas I would suggest that your range can be seen as a lot wider here and thus that villain is simply trying to blast you off a float. However, once you call the turn, you do define your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, two things:

1)Not everyone knows that I am "nath from 2+2", the mayor of LAGville in Maniac County, etc.
2)If I was floating on a board where I probably haven't connected (possibly a flush draw), wouldn't it be more reasonable to bet more normally instead of putting out almost pot-sized bets on both streets?

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OTOH, I am fairly secure in the knowledge that my opponent knows that I have an overpair here whereas I would suggest that your range can be seen as a lot wider here and thus that villain is simply trying to blast you off a float. However, once you call the turn, you do define your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, two things:

1)Not everyone knows that I am "nath from 2+2", the mayor of LAGville in Maniac County, etc.
2)If I was floating on a board where I probably haven't connected (possibly a flush draw), wouldn't it be more reasonable to bet more normally instead of putting out almost pot-sized bets on both streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. It's funny you should say this because the HHs of yours that I have reviewed, you didn't come accross as particularly laggy. However, my point is that, at this level, I very rarely call two streets and then stab turn. If you've done this at all in villain's presence, then counter-floating becomes a possibility. It's not to do with reputation, just image. What sort of things has he seen you do? Nevertheless, I don't feel this is very likely. It's just more likely than when I'm hero.

2. If there was ever a board that called for big bets OOP, this is it.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OTOH, I am fairly secure in the knowledge that my opponent knows that I have an overpair here whereas I would suggest that your range can be seen as a lot wider here and thus that villain is simply trying to blast you off a float. However, once you call the turn, you do define your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, two things:

1)Not everyone knows that I am "nath from 2+2", the mayor of LAGville in Maniac County, etc.
2)If I was floating on a board where I probably haven't connected (possibly a flush draw), wouldn't it be more reasonable to bet more normally instead of putting out almost pot-sized bets on both streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. It's funny you should say this because the HHs of yours that I have reviewed, you didn't come accross as particularly laggy. However, my point is that, at this level, I very rarely call two streets and then stab turn. If you've done this at all in villain's presence, then counter-floating becomes a possibility. It's not to do with reputation, just image. What sort of things has he seen you do? Nevertheless, I don't feel this is very likely. It's just more likely than when I'm hero.

2. If there was ever a board that called for big bets OOP, this is it.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. We have very little history together.

2. Why?