So bet for value or check for safety?

[ThePortuguee]

Full ring 1/2NL at the Borgata. Villain in this hand is a fairly passive seeming Israeli guy who's kinda sitting there minding his business, thinking he's good at poker. He bought in short and I doubled him up earlier when I check/raised another guy big with a flush draw and he ended up having the nut straight.

I haven't been at the table all that long but I showed down a fairly big hand to win a pot earlier and have opened a fair number of pots from position without anything real interesting happening. I probably don't have much of an image at this point, but my strategy in the game was pretty simple and standard: tight out of position, loosen up and play/open a lot of pots in position.

I guess people will criticize the preflop limp but I'm not really interested in that criticism because the game was playing loose passive and most players had bigger than 100BB stacks. I'm also confident I play better than any of these players postflop.

Anyway at the time of this hand he has around $250 and I cover.

Hero is on the button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

4 limpers to hero who calls $2, Villain completes in the SB, BB checks.

Flop ($14): 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checks to the cutoff who bets $10. Hero raises to $30. Villain cold calls in the small blind, folds to cutoff who thinks for a while then folds.

Turn ($84): T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, hero bets $70, villain calls quickly.

River ($234): T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain pauses then checks. He has about $150 left behind. What do you do?

[jakeduke]

I'd raise the flop a bit more (35-40), and I go broke on the river if villain boated up.

[EMc]

I go all in in the river.

[relativity_x]

I value bet river ~80. Looks like he missed the flush draw.

If he had a set, he would check raised the turn.

[4_2_it]

You won't see a boat risk a check behind here very often. Bet $99 and call his push.

[jakeduke]

[ QUOTE ]
You won't see a boat risk a check behind here very often. Bet $99 and call his push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands are pushing for an extra 50 over this bet that don't just call a push?

[Hince]

I push.

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
You won't see a boat risk a check behind here very often. Bet $99 and call his push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is passive. Since OP bet so strong every street, I really could see this Villain c/r the river.

I don't know about such a big value bet either. What's calling? Draws all missed, 2 pair got counterfeited, and overpairs to the flop (particularly the lower ones) might fold to a push or near push. Only hands I see that call such a big river bet/push that we beat are a T hand and JJ-AA (with decline %), but I wouldn't give those too big a weighting in that range. I think I'd rather bet $50 and fold to a push, that way you'll get payed off by hands as low as 88 and maybe even 66 and 7x. Plus, you know you're beat on the c/r often enough to get away.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You won't see a boat risk a check behind here very often. Bet $99 and call his push.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands are pushing for an extra 50 over this bet that don't just call a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not many, but some might call less than a push sensing weakness. What hand that hero beats can call a push here? A naked T is it.

I am open to changing my mind on th ebet size, but the key is to make a bet that villain can call with [i]anything [i] that isn't a draw.

[MrMxyztplk]

[ QUOTE ]
I am open to changing my mind on th ebet size, but the key is to make a bet that villain can call with anything that isn't a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you bet $50, do you think calling the c/r AI is good or bad? (Please justify.)