Quick, find me a call on the turn--READY?! GO!

[ThePortuguee]

MP in this hand thinks I'm full of crap because I've been playing somewhat laggy at this table. I have a big stack from winning an threeway all in when I flopped the nuts against top two and middle set and it held.

My thought on the turn is that with the other guy's money almost definitely getting in on the turn, I can call this and hope to improve against his range. Also I basically expect MP to call off his stack if I make my flush on the end almost all the time.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($61.20)
BB ($8.50)
UTG ($34.75)
MP ($75.95)
Hero ($216.85)
Button ($49.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, A.
UTG calls $0.50, [color=#CC3333]MP raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, [color=#666666]3 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.75) 4, J, 7 [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
UTG checks, [color=#CC3333]MP bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5, UTG calls $5.

Turn: ($21.75) Q [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]UTG bets $10</font>, [color=#CC3333]MP raises to $24</font> Hero... ?

[kongs]

Raise the flop. As it is on the turn I would fold. MP has raised twice already this hand. He is showing a lot of strength.

[samsonite2100]

This seems like a more or less straight up odds calaculation. You have 13 good outs for your river card. You're being asked to put in ~$28 to win ~$78 (assuming UTG puts in his remaining $4 on top of MP's raise). You're getting correct odds here not even counting implieds, which seem pretty big in this spot.

Edited to add that I think raising the flop would be pretty bad on a board this dry.

[Hince]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a more or less straight up odds calaculation. You have 13 good outs for your river card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we are drawing to 9 outs.

[samsonite2100]

You don't think JJJ would be good? Also, I think AJ twopair would win some % of the time. Call it 11.5 outs? Even so, I think implieds make this a pretty easy call.

[ZingyDNA]

[ QUOTE ]

Edited to add that I think raising the flop would be pretty bad on a board this dry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. If you just call with TPTK, doesn't that mean preflop you're trying to hit 2P or better w/ AJs? That doesn't sound right. UTG is pretty short so u just need to raise to 13-14(or even a mini raise). He might froze up w/ overpair and give a free card on the turn. If he plays back you fold cuz he's that deep he cant do that with a hand you beat.

BTW, as played turn call is marginal. You might have the odds.

[wslee00]

just b/c you don't raise doesn't mean you didn't hit your hand. we are trying to keep the pot small here.

oh - and about the hand - and we have 11 clean outs, maybe more. It's close btw call and fold based on what UTG does.

[samsonite2100]

Villain (MP) showed strength PF and solidly led the flop. If you raise the flop you are going to give pause to all the one pair hands you beat and do the work for hands you're behind.

As played, ok, turn call is not the easiest call ever, but I think it's still pretty easy considering implieds. We are absolutely stacking villain if we make our hand.

[Phoenix1010]

Absolutely raise the flop. The turn is pretty close, if you call UTG might just push and allow MP to push over and make you get it in bad. I'd call sometimes and fold sometimes depending on how I feel.

[samsonite2100]

[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely raise the flop. The turn is pretty close, if you call UTG might just push and allow MP to push over and make you get it in bad. I'd call sometimes and fold sometimes depending on how I feel.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think UTG's $4 push would allow MP another reraise, but I could be wrong.