Quick, find me a call on the turn--READY?! GO!

[wslee00]

can somebody please explain why we should be raising the flop?

[ZingyDNA]

MP looks strong on the first 2 streets, but it's not easy for him to play back at us if we raise the flop: he doesn't know what we have. It's also hard to control the pot if u just call cuz UTG comes along and MP will fire again on the turn. R u gonna fold turn if a blank comes?

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
It's also hard to control the pot if u just call cuz UTG comes along and MP will fire again on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
we don't know that on the flop. For all intents and purposes, we should assume that he will fold on this dry of a board.

[samsonite2100]

[ QUOTE ]
MP looks strong on the first 2 streets, but it's not easy for him to play back at us if we raise the flop: he doesn't know what we have. It's also hard to control the pot if u just call cuz UTG comes along and MP will fire again on the turn. R u gonna fold turn if a blank comes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate this logic. So, we control the pot by raising big with UTG left to act?

[Phoenix1010]

Woops, you are correct, I miscalculated. In that case I think I call every time.

[ThePortuguee]

[ QUOTE ]
MP looks strong on the first 2 streets, but it's not easy for him to play back at us if we raise the flop: he doesn't know what we have. It's also hard to control the pot if u just call cuz UTG comes along and MP will fire again on the turn. R u gonna fold turn if a blank comes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like... what are you talking about? How do you know he's giong to bet again. how do you know that UTG will call? And if we're behind, how the hell does raising control the pot?

I just can't find any real justification for raising the flop. If you're ahead, you're probably ahead by a lot. If you're behind, it's unlikely that your opponent is ever going to fold a better hand, and in any event we should be thinking showdown with this hand, not bluff.

If we raise we do nothing but fold out worse hands that are probably drawing slim to beat us. I can't see raising as being a good option unless our opponent tables KQ midhand, which I think you'll find doesn't usually happen. Smaller jacks are perfectly reasonable holdings for MP, as are AK, AQ, KQ, and overpairs. He might even do this with TT.

Raising folds out the ones you're beating and bloats the pot against the ones you're not. How can that possibly be the optimal play?

In answer to your question, my plan in the hand is to call the flop and then reevaluate the river. If i call and UTG calls, then MP pots it on the turn, I'm probably giving up, but you have to realize that a lot of hands are giong to shut down to that action--often including hands that we're beating.

On the turn, I guess I'm most interested in how many outs we can expect. As a note, there is no chance we can be reraised all in if we call, since UTG's shove wouldn't constitute a full raise.

Do we think our jack outs are good? How often are we against a set? How often is our ace out good?

[samsonite2100]

We're obviously against a set sometimes here, but the fact that MP is maybe frustrated by your lagginess blurs the issue. I tried actually doing the math here, but I'm hungover and incapable and my brain hurts now. Redraw possibilites make me want to revise my initial setimate down to, like, 10 outs, maybe? If so, I think it's still a call, although close.

[g29w]

If you have a laggy image, I don't mind a raise on the flop. The chances of him holding a hands that beats your is small and if he's willing to stack off so easily, he might call a flop raise.

If you have more of a PF range for the villians, it would be easier to determine what you should do.

You do have odds to call the turn if MP will stack off, assuming MP holds AQo or some sort of top pair you have ~25% chance to win the hand on the river.

But there is no harm in dumping the hand as well, since MP is representing at least TPTK, UTG is still there to act, and MP may not always stack off on the river.

[Vee Quiva]

[ QUOTE ]
MP in this hand thinks I'm full of crap because I've been playing somewhat laggy at this table. I have a big stack from winning an threeway all in when I flopped the nuts against top two and middle set and it held.

My thought on the turn is that with the other guy's money almost definitely getting in on the turn, I can call this and hope to improve against his range. Also I basically expect MP to call off his stack if I make my flush on the end almost all the time.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($61.20)
BB ($8.50)
UTG ($34.75)
MP ($75.95)
Hero ($216.85)
Button ($49.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, A.
UTG calls $0.50, [color=#CC3333]MP raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, [color=#666666]3 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.75) 4, J, 7 [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
UTG checks, [color=#CC3333]MP bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5, UTG calls $5.

Turn: ($21.75) Q [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]UTG bets $10</font>, [color=#CC3333]MP raises to $24</font> Hero... ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Outs calculations:
Opponent has trip 4's = 8-9 outs depending if he has 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Opponent has trip 7's = 8-9 outs depending if other opponent has a spade
Opponent has trip Jacks = 8-9 outs
Opponent has trip Queens = 8-9 outs
Opponent has AA, KK = 13-14 outs
Opponent has QJ = 11-12 outs

[ZingyDNA]

Raising lets MP know he's playing for stacks and slows down all but his best hands. And you pay at most 7,8 bucks more than a call. I assumed he's not a maniac who plays back w/ anything and forces you to fold the best hand, if that's the case you call and let him keep bluffing into you. MP most likely has over pair, he'll fire again on the turn if you just call flop. That's bad for pot control, isn't it? If he can't even beat jacks on the flop, then your raise is for value.