JJ in interesting capped pot situation against 2+2er....

Smurph64 · #1 09-21-2007, 01:25 AM

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History

BB is known 2+2 player with some experience, seems to play straight up most of the time, lots of value betting, aware of the other players around him, but not a veteran.

Preflop: 2+2er is BB CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, 2+2er caps, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](4 players)
2+2er bets, UTG folds, Hero ....

Bulletproof Monk · #2 09-21-2007, 01:39 AM

2 backdoor draws plus some chance our hand is good, getting ~18:1 we have to peel here.

i think raising is probably spewy given his range

Aaron W. · #3 09-21-2007, 01:50 AM

Peel a pray for a J. 2+2er isn't capping light against an UTG raise and a 3-bet, and he really really isn't doing it OOP.

Oink · #4 09-21-2007, 04:17 AM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,730 games 0.005 secs 5,346,000 games/sec

Board: 5d 9s Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 88.287% 88.29% 00.00% 23599 0.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 11.713% 11.71% 00.00% 3131 0.00 { JdJs }

Dunno how wide his range should be here. But even against a fairly tight range you have plenty of eq to call.

c/c any diamond, T or Q turn and c/r/call down a J turn.

Christian_Peters · #5 09-21-2007, 05:19 AM

calls...but it's close. I just have a hard time folding the flop for 17.5-1.

StrictlyStrategy · #6 09-21-2007, 05:23 AM

Unless he has KK you're getting close(but not great, if you have AA and you're raised on the turn by a tag on a KJx board in a capped pot PF how good do you love your hand?) odds to peel for a J.

Christian_Peters · #7 09-21-2007, 05:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Peel a pray for a J. 2+2er isn't capping light against an UTG raise and a 3-bet, and he really really isn't doing it OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. And I would be even be careful if a J comes.

OP, this is the sort of 2+2'er that I'm most afraid of; one of these total ABC, has the basics down to a cinch but still feels uncomfortable gambling types. His range in this hand is exactly QQ,KK,AA,AKs.

Smurph64 · #8 09-21-2007, 08:21 AM

This is a tough hand. Don't forget we still have CO in this hand. Against the two of them on this flop the range is even smaller. So I don't think about calling here.

I don't want to continue and be sandwiched between two here. So I have a choice. CO I hope has missed doesn't want to be sandwiched himself and doesn't want to call two bets here knowing the cap can come back to him.

His range although larger that BB for the cold call, don't forget he posted is such that a flush draw is possible or AQ, A10s, KJs,QJs KQs,Q10 and of course AK. So in the interest of perhaps winning this pot for 1 bet on each street by catching lucky and getting this CO to fold. I think its a raise.

If I get raised by either coming back, I think its tough to continue. But if I get called by both of them here, I can easily still be behind but then I might get a free card on the turn.

If 2+2er is overthinking here, he will call the turn as well because he will try and trap for the check raise against two opponents, since he is sure I will raise the turn as well.

Since I plan on checking the turn unless its a Jack here, now it's up to CO to make his move. CO may do anything, but his move is what determines what I do next. If he checks it, then I have a shot on the river to win but if he bets and even if 2+2er calls I think its a fold unless I get a diamond.

So with those thoughts in mind..... Hero raises the flop.

Was my thinking here pure bunk or was there some merit here?

Bulletproof Monk · #9 09-21-2007, 11:13 AM

its pretty damn bad thinking.

yes there is someone behind you, but the chance that they raise after all the action so far is balanced by the chance they call along and give us better odds....

also any hand they would have raised they are now calling so you achieve nothing by raising.

raising here is complete terrible spew.

thinking its a raise/fold situation on a 18:1 decision represents a huge huge leak.

cmcneilly · #10 09-21-2007, 11:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
its pretty damn bad thinking.

yes there is someone behind you, but the chance that they raise after all the action so far is balanced by the chance they call along and give us better odds....

also any hand they would have raised they are now calling so you achieve nothing by raising.

raising here is complete terrible spew.

thinking its a raise/fold situation on a 18:1 decision represents a huge huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

If it doesn't come back to you re-raised, I would be surprised. You only win this hand if you hit on turn or river and if you do, you'll likely beat the other player, so I wouldn't give him much thought unless he does something interesting.