$200 Caesar's 12 pm JJ hand vs. tourist

iStackBooks · #1 08-30-2007, 07:58 PM

34 players entered with 4 getting paid. Starting stack is 7500 with 40 minute levels. We are at 100/200/25. Level change is in under 10 minutes going to 200/400/100. My table is all tourists. I would be surprised if any of them had ever played a casino tourny. My image is solid. I have shown down strong hands (lost a few to bad beats) and am obviously the only player at the table who knows what they are doing.

I have around 8000 chips and pick up JJ in MP. I make it 700, folds to the sb who is a tourist with a big stack. He has played decent so far but is playing too many hands both raising and calling raises. At first it looks like he is going to fold then he starts playing with his chips, looking at my stack, clearly doesn't really know what to do with his hand. Eventually he decides to call.

Flop is QQ10 with 2 clubs. He checks, I bet 700 he thinks about it for a second and raises to 2700. There are roughly 5000 chips in the pot and i have around 6500 left. What do we do? Is this always a Q or does he make this play with a flush draw, straight draw, or air? Keep in mind that a fold leaves us with 15 bb's for the next level.

iStackBooks · #2 08-30-2007, 08:31 PM

Obviously a 10 is in his range, btw...

4CardStraight · #3 08-30-2007, 09:05 PM

Odd spot. Can he be making this play with a draw? Yes I think so, even a tourist can make a semibluff with a solid draw. If he is its probably a combo, like Js9c combo oesd+backdoorflush, ranging up to KcJc for the nutty oesfd. He could have AcTd or something for backdoor flush bottom pair and an over, or possibly even a hand were drawing almost dead to like TT or KQ.

I dont like this flop with JJ much at all. Theres hardly any draws he might have were we have a ton of equity, if he did have a ten I think a tourist would call you instead of bluff you with it. I think the odds are good he has a bad queen like KQ, QJ, Q9. I think if he doesnt have that he has some sort of nutty combo draw where we have less than half the equity. At this point the we havent invested tons, and he is clearly committed to the pot, I can muck here.

4Card

veggies · #4 08-30-2007, 09:45 PM

I probably fold because his Q8 sooooooooooooooted is good.

IN all seriousnees, I fold because I don't think you will be ahead very often making that call. And you may as well push if you are going to call at this point.

If you really feel you are better than everyone else, find a better spot, and let them continue to think calling with a bad hand is a great play.

helter skelter · #5 08-31-2007, 06:17 PM

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Theres hardly any draws he might have were we have a ton of equity, if he did have a ten I think a tourist would call you instead of bluff you with it. I think the odds are good he has a bad queen like KQ, QJ,

4Card

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I think a tourist wouldn't have hesitated calling pre-flop with those hands. Although we might think of them as bad Q's, to a tourist, they look like premium hands.

On the other hand, that makes it possible that he could have a really bad Q (like Q5s). But I think it's also quite possible he has a T. With a T, he may very well think he has the best hand, so he may be ckraising with that thought.

I think draws are less likely, not only because of the way he played it, but most strait drawing hands he could have also would not have hesitated pre-flop. If he does have a draw and needs a J, he's royally screwed.

kenny7 · #6 08-31-2007, 07:20 PM

I play alot live and I've been in this situation...alot!!!

Actually,since it is live,I think this is totally read dependent.If he is,as you say,your standard "first-time-in-a-casino-tourist" I'd say that the likelyhood of him having a draw are almost zero. Average live player will c/c here almost always.

That means he either has a Q or a T. If your read is accurate,that he was uncertain about calling or folding pre,I think you are good here. AQ,KQ,JQ suited or not instacalls,QT c/c this flop,that leaves Q9 and Q8 as the only likely holdings.

Really?? Yup,Weggies said it,sooooted they look oh so good to your average tourist.

I actually think you might be good here,wouldn't at all be surprised if he turns over T/9. Then again,you better be sure of your read preflop. I know it's unlikely,and a lot easier to see in real life,but if you did fall for the weak is strong act.....he's got AA here.

Anyway,if you are certain of your preflop read,I think you shove here,if not,just fold,wait for a better spot. If you really are the best player,in tourneys like these there will be other opportunities.

erc007 · #7 09-01-2007, 02:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
34 players entered with 4 getting paid. Starting stack is 7500 with 40 minute levels. We are at 100/200/25. Level change is in under 10 minutes going to 200/400/100. My table is all tourists. I would be surprised if any of them had ever played a casino tourny. My image is solid. I have shown down strong hands (lost a few to bad beats) and am obviously the only player at the table who knows what they are doing.

I have around 8000 chips and pick up JJ in MP. I make it 700, folds to the sb who is a tourist with a big stack. He has played decent so far but is playing too many hands both raising and calling raises. At first it looks like he is going to fold then he starts playing with his chips, looking at my stack, clearly doesn't really know what to do with his hand. Eventually he decides to call.

Flop is QQ10 with 2 clubs. He checks, I bet 700 he thinks about it for a second and raises to 2700. There are roughly 5000 chips in the pot and i have around 6500 left. What do we do? Is this always a Q or does he make this play with a flush draw, straight draw, or air? Keep in mind that a fold leaves us with 15 bb's for the next level.

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I think your weak flop lead is what makes this hand tough to play. You're betting 700 into a 1750 pot? That is way too small imo. Is this your std c-bet, or what were u thinking when u lead here? This size c-bet is begging to get reaised, b/c it looks so much like AK or a scared underpair.
Lead for at least 1000-1250 here, or just check. I would always lead here b/c this flop is not that bad for your hand and if u check, SB can lead any turn and rep a Q. As played, i think i would call the raise (shoving over it is really bad) and reevaluate the turn. If he's FOS, or he has a 10, he's going to slow down. If he leads again, then i think u can be confident that u are beat. If i'm playing against anyone halfway decent here, i'd much rather get raised than flatcalled on this flop. Leading the flop for 1000-1250 saves you about 1500 chips (cause now u don't have to call the raise) and it makes it much harder for SB to make a move here. I def think that most tourists can (make a terrible) raise here with a Q, but u have to lead out a little stronger to find out where you're at here.

helter skelter · #8 09-01-2007, 10:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If i'm playing against anyone halfway decent here, i'd much rather get raised than flatcalled on this flop.

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This is a good point. How does a tourist typically play in this situation? I suspect even bad players love to slowplay a monster to try to milk it.

It's just hard to know, though, since one tourist might try to milk it using the flat call and another tourist might not even be thinking about later streets.

The same goes for him having a T. Assuming he has a T and thinks it's good, would he bet it out or "check to the raiser", planning to raise?

I think it would be very hard to know the answers to these questions when you're playing a short time against someone like this.

So then it becomes a question of; Am I such a good player that I can lay down what is probably the best hand because I will have a better opportunites later?

There has been a lot of discussion about this general topic. This is a fast tourney, so there is not going to be enough "later" for a player, no matter how good he is, to pass on an EV+ situation.

iStackBooks · #9 09-02-2007, 03:40 AM

I agree with Helter which is why I decided to push. How can we call off 1/3 of our stack on this flop planning to fold the turn? That is absolutely horrible IMO. It has to be all in or fold. Not only are we leaving ourselves crippled but we could be losing value against a 10 if a scare card (A,K, maybe a club) hits on the turn.

If I go all in, and he folds I have around 12,000 chips. If I go all in get called and win I have around 16,000 chips. With the blinds about to go up, I didn't think I could pass up the opportunity to build my stack. With a stack of this size I can dominate the table. If he has a Q, he has a Q. Overall I think all-in is +EV and anyone who has played a casino tourny like this knows that it is very dangerous to just sit around and wait for a better spot. You very likely won't find one. Furthermore, while you sit around and wait your stack dwindles and you are forced into push/fold mode which doesn't work very well with tourists who are only playing their hand.

erc007 · #10 09-02-2007, 04:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Helter which is why I decided to push. How can we call off 1/3 of our stack on this flop planning to fold the turn? That is absolutely horrible IMO. It has to be all in or fold. Not only are we leaving ourselves crippled but we could be losing value against a 10 if a scare card (A,K, maybe a club) hits on the turn.

If I go all in, and he folds I have around 12,000 chips. If I go all in get called and win I have around 16,000 chips. With the blinds about to go up, I didn't think I could pass up the opportunity to build my stack. With a stack of this size I can dominate the table. If he has a Q, he has a Q. Overall I think all-in is +EV and anyone who has played a casino tourny like this knows that it is very dangerous to just sit around and wait for a better spot. You very likely won't find one. Furthermore, while you sit around and wait your stack dwindles and you are forced into push/fold mode which doesn't work very well with tourists who are only playing their hand.

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I have no prob with shoving here...if it's for value (if u think that villain will call with worse hands)...what u are basically saying is "i don't know what to do, or where i'm at...so i shove." You haven't even assigned a range for villain, so your shove will fold worse hands like JT;KT;AT and other underpairs...you're also now going to pay off KJ if the A hits. Every hand (no exceptions) that is beating you now will call this shove...so what have u really accomlished here?