MLET Challenge: Molson Action

[Smurph64]

Oh man formatting is a pain in the .... I will try and do better next time.

Bottom line on this hand we had interesting action because of the forced betting and a surprise result.

Al_Money22 didn't send me the follow up analysis on this so I hope he does on the boards here. (hint hint)

I have two questions:

Why did Al_Money22 pick this hand to gamble with over the other garbage he had this round?

Why did Guruman give up his raise so quickly?


Table Molson

First hand:



Preflop



Bona Dealer 15bb 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]



Action: Bona FOLDS. Obvious fold




Stormy455 SB 15bb Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]



Okay, I'll call - only because I'm not sure if I've played a qualifying bet or not. It's a pretty loose call with only a Q high card, not suited, not connected but I can easily dump it if I don't hit any of the flop.

I hope I'm not confusing things too much, but just to help speed this along when it gets back to me I fold. Q2o is not worth calling a raise.

Not sure what other analysis you or anybody else wants.

(FWIW, the 5 hands you sent me were pretty awful. I look forward to the next round).


Guruman BB 15bb 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


Guruman table molson A9d in bb, I raise. Whats up with all of this loosey passive limping at a 2+2 table? F that, I'm coming out firing with a good multiway hand. I am perfectly capable of checking the flop, and I think that the action on this hand will help set up a little more action. I don't want anyone meekly folding, so I need to maniac it up a bit and lose some cred early on. Good spot for that here.


AussieBattler 15bb 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


Aussie limps UTG

Comments: I don’t know if this is going to be a loose or tight table but I will assume that if I limp I can encourage a few more limpers and get a nice multiway pot for when i flop the nuts. I half expect for someone to try an isoraise, probably from Str8 or Thrakkar since they have nice position. I expect that other players will put me on a small/medium pocket pair, suited connectors or Axsooted. If its 2 bets back to me preflop I am likely to muck but that will depend on the actual action. The first hand will be interesting so Ill get a piece of the action as well as getting to see how others respond to my limp.

also a comment that I Don’t know if it needs to go in my comments is that this might be my best hand of this first hand and i have to play one so insta-limp [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I call the raise.

Comment: I expected someone to raise but not the BB. This raise will mean he has something reasonable if not a powerhouse. I call and expect AlMoney to call and also I think Stormy to call with anything half decent.


bravos1 15bb 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


Bravos folds Jd6h.. umm yeah, Jack high OOP is bad...

:-)


22pajo 15bb 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


Fold Reasons: low card, un suited, 2 gapped. a very weak hand. serious urge to limp this but its just 2 weak. and with 3 players to act yet behind me too much of a risk of a raise

Al_Money22 15bb 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Alright- I would like to fold on both of the tables, but don't I have to play at least one hand?

Both hands, although suited, are not playable in their respective positions.

Ok then, I will limp the 42s hand on table Molson.

Although I wouldn't have played this preflop normally, getting decent odds and closing the action, I call the raise.

Str8fish 15bb Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


Str8fish, Qs4c... folds.



This hand is absolute crap. It only has 1 high-card value, no flush draw, no straight draw. Any flush or straight I make is going to be using only one of my hole cards, which is no good. If I hit a flush, it'd have to be with the Qs, and pray that nobody who has a live hand has the As or the Ks. If this hand hits top pair Q's, I have no kicker. TAGs/LAGs like I'm playing with play for high card value. I wouldn't doubt that a lot of the time I am outkicked. I also have to worry about Aussie who (craftily) decided to OPEN call for some reason. We tell everyone, avoid open calling. Always raise a hand. This makes me wonder if he has AA/KK. I would suspect AA moreso. I know his game, though, and I can definitely say that he'd raise both of these and wouldn't try to slowplay his high pairs. Since not AA/KK, then I would put him on a mid-pair, or even small-pair, such as 22-66. 77+ I'm sure he would raise. Another possibility is A7s-A9s. I think those would be in his limping range, based on how I've seen him play before. I don't think anything other than this is in his UTG limping range.


I also have to worry about Al_money who decided that he did not have a hand worthy enough to iso-raise with, but just to limp. That's easily A6s-ATs, KTo-KJo, QJ, 22-88, T9s-JTs. My crap hand has nothing going for it against both of these ranges. In fact, if I put those ranges into pokerstove, then I get:



equity (%) win (%) tie (%)

Hand 1: 36.2213 % 35.43% 00.80% { 66-22, A9s-A7s }

Hand 2: 40.0209 % 39.05% 00.97% { 88-22, ATs-A6s, KJs-KTs, QJs, JTs, T9s, KJo-KTo, QJo }

Hand 3: 23.7578 % 23.25% 00.51% { Qs4c }

yea, so I'm not ahead of their limping range, and also have to worry about the people behind me.

Muck this, I fold.


Thrakkar 15bb 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


reason: I hold T6o in CO after 2 callers. Same thinking as in the last hand I sent you (no need to play any hand, this hand is bad => FOLD).


ACTION
Stormy posts .5bb in SB, Guruman posts .5bb in BB, Aussiebattler calls, bravos1 folds, 22pajo folds, Al_Money22 calls, Str8fish folds, Thrakkar folds, Stormy455 checks, Guruman raises, Stormy455 folds, AussieBattler calls, Al_Money22 calls


Flop 7sb (3 players)

3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Guruman bets, Aussiebattler folds, Al_Money22 raises, Guruman folds


Comments:

guruman table Molson I bet.

I've an utg limper and another blind to contend with here. I also have initiative and a really hard board for others to hit. I may get some loose peels here, but I think that there is too much to gain by betting out and trying to either pick up the pot or get it headsup. If I get one caller I'm firing again at most turns, if I get two callers I'm done with the hand. If someone raises me here I'll probably have to pitch as well, even though I may have the best hand because its just too expsensive to find out.



Aussiebattler: molson. I fold.



Al_Money22: Well, I am open ended, soo let's raise. If he 3bets, I am calling.

guruman table molson I fold. He could well be semibluff raising that flop, but I've got zero so I get out.





Al_money wins 3bb Stormy455 loses .5bb, Aussiebattler loses 1bb, Guruman loses 1.5 bb

[OziBattler]

Str8fish, I know you know that I know my range [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

See, I said [ QUOTE ]
I expect that other players will put me on a small/medium pocket pair, suited connectors or Axsooted

[/ QUOTE ]

And Sir Str8 correctly states that [ QUOTE ]
Since not AA/KK, then I would put him on a mid-pair, or even small-pair, such as 22-66. 77+ I'm sure he would raise. Another possibility is A7s-A9s. I think those would be in his limping range, based on how I've seen him play before. I don't think anything other than this is in his UTG limping range

[/ QUOTE ]

BINGO! I had A8s. Geez, Im in trouble if he can spot me that well...I bets starting changing it up with.... er wait...J8s in the blinds. Clearly Im 2 steps ahead of ya. holla.

ozi

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
Guruman folds


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to admit. I'm somewhere close to never folding this. I don't know whether it's brilliant or rubbish. Interested to see what others think.

[RemyXO]

Thepostiszomgtoolong, couldnotgetpastBonaFOLDS

[Guruman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Guruman folds


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to admit. I'm somewhere close to never folding this. I don't know whether it's brilliant or rubbish. Interested to see what others think.

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on your reasoning.

Really it depends on how often you think you're draing to three outs.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Guruman folds


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to admit. I'm somewhere close to never folding this. I don't know whether it's brilliant or rubbish. Interested to see what others think.

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on your reasoning.

Really it depends on how often you think you're draing to three outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would depend who I'm playing. If villain is passive, the answer would be often. If villain is a LAG, the answer would be not often. If he's a TAG or sort of average, the answer would be sometimes. I am trying not to autocall one back on the flop (and not to autocall on the river too), so this is something I'm trying to think about.

On this flop, my opponents will *often* raise with an FD (because they are idiots and think that an FD should be pushed against any number of opponents) and *sometimes* with a low pair (this flop looks fairly good for 77/66/44. They are less likely to raise with A4 but it's possible if they're particularly aggro. They will also *sometimes* have a go if they think they can steal it and they have some showdown value. This would more often be the case when they lead out and would be calling a bet.

How often does that all amount to? Well, you're offered 10 to 1 on the call. You get 14 to 1 for your OC if he has a jack. We can discount his holding AJ. So those other possibilities don't need to amount to a lot to take one off, but it's going to be quite hard to play the turn when you miss.

[Guruman]

[ QUOTE ]
So those other possibilities don't need to amount to a lot to take one off, but it's going to be quite hard to play the turn when you miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

therein lies the rub. If we put ourselves in a position where we have to catch on the turn in order to continue, then we don't have the immediate odds to do so and calling with the intention of folding on the turn is a losing proposition.

There's another factor in play here as well:

I've represented considerable strenght in this hand so far, both by raising from out of position vs multiple opponents, and by leading (even if only a cont bet) into multiple opponents. It typically takes a hand that is stronger than the pure air I happen to have to make this kind of move, and consequently it takes a real hand to make this flop raise more often.

This isnt like the checkraise the button's cont bet from the bb with AQui here. I'm out of position and bet again vs two guys. To raise against that action takes a pretty good hand or a really really good draw.

The conglomeration of these factors coaxed this into a fold for me:

1)represented strength
2)probaility that spiking a 9 has reverse implied odds
3)probability that I'm dodging 8 or 9 outs on two streets while looking to catch
4)inability to rebluff on this board

add it all up and it lookse like "Next hand" to me.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So those other possibilities don't need to amount to a lot to take one off, but it's going to be quite hard to play the turn when you miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

therein lies the rub. If we put ourselves in a position where we have to catch on the turn in order to continue, then we don't have the immediate odds to do so and calling with the intention of folding on the turn is a losing proposition.


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I am calling with the intention of firing at any "safe" turn.