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#1
10-12-2006, 01:53 PM
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MLET Challenge: Labatt Action
Here is the second hand that we see a flop for and its a two way fight for supremacy - who will win? Place your bets!
Table Labatt First hand: Preflop Bona 15bb AussieBattler 15bb Stormy455 15bb Guruman 15bb Al_Money22 15bb 22pajo 15bb Str8fish 15bb Bravos1 15bb Thrakkar 15bb Aussiebattler posts .5bb in SB, Stormy455 posts .5bb in BB, Guruman folds, Al_Money22 folds, 22pajo folds, str8fish folds, Bravos1 raises, Thrakkar folds, Bona folds, Aussiebattler reraises, Stormy455folds, Bravos1 calls. Flop 7sb (2 players) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Hands were all randomly made in advance by dealing a deck at home in case anyone wonders about this) 
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#3
10-16-2006, 08:22 AM
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Re: MLET Challenge: Labatt Action
Table Labatt with Notes
First hand: Preflop Bona 15bb Kh 8h AussieBattler 15bb Js 8s Stormy455 15bb 6c 4s Guruman 15bb 5d 10c Al_Money22 15bb Jd 10d 22pajo 15bb 4h 7s Str8fish 15bb Ad 4c Bravos1 15bb 2h 2c Thrakkar 15bb 5s 9d Aussiebattler posts .5bb in SB, Stormy455 posts .5bb in BB, Guruman folds, Al_Money22 folds, 22pajo folds, str8fish folds, Bravos1 raises, Thrakkar folds, Bona folds, Aussiebattler reraises, Stormy455folds, Bravos1 calls. Flop 7sb (2 players) Ah 6h Jh Aussiebattler bets, Bravos1 folds Aussiebattler wins first hand at Labatt+2bb, Stormy455 -.5bb, Bravos -1.5bb. GURUMAN T5o utg fold - after reading Boz's post (and considering its probable effect on everyone else's play) I know that there is going to be some kind of craziness in behind me. Since I don't anticipate having much fold equity and this is a trash hand anyway I pitch. My counterstrategy will be to get into position to flop a hand and valuebet relentlessly. AL_MONEY22 For table Labatt.. 10Js UTG+1 is a fold for me. Limping is at a loose table would be fine but I would fold this here. BONA FYI I am having lots of trouble estimating the "windage" that will be created by each player being required to play a hand in each round. example: the best starting hand I have is in late position but it may become a nightmare if I have to act on a 2 or 3 bet ahead of me. If that happens I might wish I had limped a much inferior hand that I already folded on another table? Does this tell me that I should "stall around" as much as possible to get information before I act on any hand that I might have to play? That’s just one consideration though. Estimating the effect will permeate all hands I think. Do you think the "must play one" structure makes sense? Or maybe you wanted it spinning this much to see how people would react? fold behind to raiser with two blinds to act. 22PAJO Hand: 4h 7s My action: Fold Reasons: low card, un suited, 3 gapped. a very weak hand STR8FISH Aussiebattler posts .5bb in SB, Stormy455 posts .5bb in BB, Guruman folds, Al_Money22 folds, 22pajo folds,Str8fish Ad 4c in position 7 - Folds. Another quality hand. Looks like I'm in MP2 with Ad4c. I have no competition that limped in behind me, but I still have 5 other opponents ahead of me here who have yet to act. A ton of Ax hands have me completely dominated and at best against them, I'd want to hit my 4 and A and not have it be counterfeited by the board. If the 4 doesn't hit, then at most I can hope for is a split. One possibility for this hand is to hit the wheel, although in some instances, something like a 6 can dominate me if the board comes out 2345. I'd have to hope for a board that is 235 as the possibility of someone playing 64 is very slim. To have a good chance of winning the hand, the flop would have to come out the following: A4x [(3*3*48)*3=432], AA4 [(3*2*3)*3=54], 44x [(3*2*48)*3=288], 23x [(4*4*48)*3=768], 567 [(4*4*4)*3=192], 356 [(4*4*4)*3=192], xdxdxd [(12*11*10)=1320], Axdxd [(3*12*11)*3=1188], AAA [(3*2*1)=6], 444 [(3*2*1)=6]. So let's see... that takes care of 2-pair,straight, flush, boat, and quads that could occur for me to continue beyond the flop. Total combination of flops that could occur is 50*49*48=117600, and total flops that I would continue with are 4446, so that's 3.8% of the possible flops to come out favorable for me. Those odds lay us 25:1 on a call here. I don't think there's that many people at the table, so yea, it's a definite fold. If I throw Ad4c into PokerStove for [censored] and giggles against my now 5 random hand opponents, I get: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 17.4858 % 15.74% 01.76% { Ad4c } Hand 2: 16.4935 % 15.24% 01.26% { random } Hand 3: 16.5019 % 15.25% 01.26% { random } Hand 4: 16.5136 % 15.27% 01.26% { random } Hand 5: 16.5084 % 15.26% 01.26% { random } Hand 6: 16.4969 % 15.25% 01.25% { random } So looks like I win this hand 15.74% of the time, split 1.76% of the time. I have no real equity advantage over even a random hand, much less 5 of them. A raise would be completely awful as any hands that 3-bet us have us very easily dominated. Plus the fact that we don't have an equity advantage TO raise in the first place. Limping would also be awful as even if it's folded to the blind, we still have only a slight advantage over a single random hand. We'd still need to get through 4 other opponents as well and hope that they fold. I think I've thoroughly convinced you that Ad4c is absolute crap. I fold. BRAVOS1 Bravos raises his ducks (2h2c)! In HJ, on a tight table, let's raise it up and try to take it now or possibly on the flop. Bravos calls the reraise from the SB looking for a favorable flop. Brovos folds his WAY under pair. Flop was about as bad as one could hope for w/ 22 against a 3-better. My comments/thoughts on the Labatt hand. 22 in HJ is an easy open raise at a table like this. After Asissie 3bets, I call looking for a good flop. I was a bit suprised when I saw Aussie's hand. I do not think J8s is strong enough to 3bet PF against an open raise from HJ. The range of an open from the HJ is larger, but not just any 2 cards. If this were a real game played at .5/1 or 1/2, I guarantee that Assie does not 3bet there. Take that for what it's worth and feel free to post this in the thread. THRAKKAR Here's my reasoning behind this decision: 95o after a raise is just NOT playable. From the 5 hands I have already folded 1 (42o UTG at Lakeport). The 4 remaining also suck, but since I have posted a SB on table Sleeman I don't need to play this crap for 2 bets. So I happily fold 95o. AUSSIEBATTLER Labatt Aussies raises. blind defence time I will type up and send a decent explanation later Cheers Aussie reraises out of the blind. lets play poker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] did u get my action for labbatt? I RAISE. Bravos aint stealing my blind just yet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ive been busy with my kids so i havent got time to type up my reasoning (even though its in my head)...ill send that tonight Comments: Aussie 3bets! Short version: Cos I don’t hate my hand, this is one orbit and I want to play poker. Blind defence time. Longer version: have J8s in the first blind. Bravos raised. Im immediately getting 4:1 if I just call. I don’t hate J8s given that its likely Bravos is raising any playable hand here, even marginal ones. Maybe Ive lucked out and he has a preflop monster. No Mubs here just yet. Im expecting that Bravos is raising any pair, any broadway, any ace, any king, any queen (except with maybe a really bad kicker), many suited connectors/1 gappers. That’s a pretty wide range. I also plugged in J8s into pokerstove versus the top 40% of hands and depending on what I hands I use I was at worst a 40/60 dog (all calculations approximate). So I am at least calling. Now to raise? Yeah, Im raising it up since I don’t want to give Stormy 5:1 on a flat call and I want to take the lead and put Bravos to the test. Lets play poker!. Bravos will know that I know his raise looks like a steal and therefore he will know that I am quite capable of 3betting light and therefore he just might cap me light also. I am half expecting this but I wont automatically put him on a big hand just cos he caps. If he caps I insta-call and see a flop. Im undecided as to what line I will take post flop if I wiff…..but my jedi-senses tell me Im going to flop at least a pair. Word. Labatt Aussie bets Comment: I have the lead and anything other than a bet here is silly. I got what I wanted. I paired my Jack and whilst I am not thrilled about the monotone flop or the Ace I am going to believe I have the best hand until bravos fights back. Getting 8:1 he is priced to call with a 5 outer or better so I expect a call here. A bet here really doesn’t reveal anything about whether I made a hand on the flop as Im expected to bet here with many holdings. I plan on betting the turn if called. This hand will get interesting if/when he raises. FWIW Im going to assume that bravos is not going to totally screwplay me on this hand. I cant narrow his hand down much at this point from the preflop range Ive already listed but because he didn’t cap preflop I will rule out at least AA-1010, AK, Aqs. So I conclude Im only behind to AJ-A2, JK-J9, a set of 6s and a flopped flush. Im harldy worried about a set or flopped flush at this point. Im also concerned that he might have a 4 flush but lets see what happens. Action to bravos. Comment: No brainer. I bet. Nothing has changed. I bet and expect that my hand is goot until I see otherwise. lets see if Ive been slowplayed......action to Mr Bravos colin. I dont have any comments for labatt other than what I already sent you.. if you are missing a comment for any of my actions (I sent one for each) then let me know. thx I wonder if people will love or hate my preflop..... STORMY455 I fold. Can't call 2.5 bets with low offsuit cards
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#4
10-16-2006, 05:03 PM
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Re: MLET Challenge: Labatt Action
Alright Microers,
let me break this down for you and keep it simple. The main point of discussion here should probably be me defending my SB (which in this blind structure is actually a BB) with J8s. Simply put, I (correctly) put Bravos on a wide range with his hijack raise and 3 bet J8s light. This was very borderline for me. I took a chance and it worked (hoorah). Thrakkar tells me after the hand that there is a fine line between being a genius and an idiot. Which side of the line do you think I fell on to here? Bravos says he was suprised that I 3 bet with J8s and that he gaurantees I wouldnt do that in a regular game. This is correct. I would pull not this move against an unknown or even your typical player at 0.5/1 but Bravos is anything but a typical donk because he can actually play a decent game that includes using the fold button. I figured the first few hands might be played standard postflop and that I would get a fair idea of where i was at postflop in this hand. That is, if played back at I would be backing off quickly.
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#5
10-16-2006, 05:09 PM
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Re: MLET Challenge: Labatt Action
I think it's fine in this situation...once. I wouldn't make it a plan to 3bet J8s here regularly, but even if you were to, it's a much smaller mistake given the blind structure. You have more to win, and less that you have to risk to try and win it. Randomizing your play here is fine to make your ranges appear broader than they really are.
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#6
10-16-2006, 05:23 PM
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Re: MLET Challenge: Labatt Action
Anyone else notice that the blind structure is screwed up?
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#9
10-16-2006, 10:23 PM
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Re: MLET Challenge: Labatt Action
[ QUOTE ]
Alright Microers, let me break this down for you and keep it simple. The main point of discussion here should probably be me defending my SB (which in this blind structure is actually a BB) with J8s. Simply put, I (correctly) put Bravos on a wide range with his hijack raise and 3 bet J8s light. This was very borderline for me. I took a chance and it worked (hoorah). Thrakkar tells me after the hand that there is a fine line between being a genius and an idiot. Which side of the line do you think I fell on to here? Bravos says he was suprised that I 3 bet with J8s and that he gaurantees I wouldnt do that in a regular game. This is correct. I would pull not this move against an unknown or even your typical player at 0.5/1 but Bravos is anything but a typical donk because he can actually play a decent game that includes using the fold button. I figured the first few hands might be played standard postflop and that I would get a fair idea of where i was at postflop in this hand. That is, if played back at I would be backing off quickly. [/ QUOTE ] I have to say I think it sucked. You correctly noted that you're behind to anything like a reasonable range for raiser and you don't offer any justification this side of machismo for reraising. What does "backing off very quickly" mean, Aussie? Are you folding to a raise on the flop? I'm guessing not but you will have ended up putting in quite a few bets against any ace -- a fair bit of his range, after all -- and bigger jacks -- less likely for him but also in his range. And even if raised, you could well be ahead on this drawy flop so you'll likely be giving a free card on the turn. I think a lot of hands that he might have are raising you here. But what are you doing if you miss? Firing anyway, hoping he missed too? Just c/fing? Maybe defending your blind by just calling the raise and c/ring anything you hit might have been better with a weakish hand like this? Or just calling and seeing, best of all. I'd like to see a bit more of a justification for reraising. What does it achieve? I often wonder why exactly players are so keen to reraise out of the blinds. Are you trying to confuse raiser into thinking you have a stronger hand than you do? Would that be worth the many bets this strategy will lose you over time? If not that, what?
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#10
10-16-2006, 10:47 PM
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Re: MLET Challenge: Labatt Action
the reason its better to reraise than to call is because this particular opponent can fold a made hand postflop, has a wide range that may need to connect to continue, and if we both catch we can win a huge pot.
this type of move can be more dangerous vs an opponent who is willing to make moves on you after showing preflop strength, but I honestly don't think that this was the case here.
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