quick turn decision

[Victor]

sb is 33/24/1.2 and proly a winner in the game. co coldcaller is 40/26 and proly a loser.

bad player limps utg i raise qjhh, co coldcalls, sb calls, bb calls.

flop is 22j with 2 diamonds.

sb bets, bb calls, i raise, co 3bets, sb calls, bb folds, i cap.

turn is offsuit 8 and sb bets out again.

[___1___]

Victor,

Considering sb is probably a winner, I can't put him on a hand except 22 (maybe AJ?). The pot is big enough where I can't do anything but call down here.

___1___

[Victor]

i really cant think of one possible hand im ahead of that plays this way given my action and co action. tj, qj, j9 would play the flop this way but i cant see anyone reasonable donking the turn with them.

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
i really cant think of one possible hand im ahead of that plays this way given my action and co action. tj, qj, j9 would play the flop this way but i cant see anyone reasonable donking the turn with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I agree. I was pretty much saying that my general approach when I can't put someone on a hand (and I have decent showdown value) is just to call down. Like I said, the only hand I really imagine him having here is 22.

___1___

[bboy_]

[censored] and you are probably behind, but the pot is too big and I'm gonna give the 2BB every time.

[DeathDonkey]

If you feel you need to call down you should raise and take a free showdown unimproved. There is some chance he folds a better jack if he's a good player (you capped the flop and raised the turn, KJ isn't looking so hot). Plus CO could easily have a draw and you need to charge him - also CO could be a borderline maniac and 3 bet the turn, push SB off a winner, and you can call him down. Also if SB bet/3 bets the turn you are drawing so dead you can just fold.

-DeathDonkey

[cartman]

I can't imagine your flop cap being a good idea unless you are doing it for the express purpose of forcing them into behaving honestly on the turn. If you have any dilemma about how to handle a turn donk by sb or a turn raise by either of them, then your flop cap was probably a bad idea in my opinion.

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
"the reason why many people find spots like this frustrating, is that with so little information you're basically making a high variance decision that equates to a stab in the dark."

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
no. the reason why this spot is a pain is bc this guy has absolutely no regard for my action. i capped the freaking flop. im screaming big jack or overpair and hes still coming at me like he has the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
hes reppin a duece or j8 or maybe 88 or jj. does he know thats what hes reppin? or is he thinking duhhh top pair bet.

whats my range in his eyes? overpair, tj to aj or flush draw (i doubt i cap the fd but maybe with ak.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] You're entirely unable to put the player's actions into any sort of narrow context. This is a weird spot that you'll never get to experience that much, so it's not like you can make an accurate judgment based on a large sample of past experience. If you were really familiar with the player in question you would sometimes fold here or sometimes raise (and maybe sometimes call). You don't have that information.

I think the last 3 "strat" posts I've made in MHUSH (spread out over like the last 4 months) have all amounted to something like this. The point is that in the typical message board discussion format there should be a type of reply which comes up all the time but never does, and it should basically read: "You don't have enough information to make an accurate decision." Sometimes this means you're guilty of not paying enough attention and sometimes it just means that you're going to FUBAR the hand a lot no matter what you do.

[Victor]

wow, thats a lot of words for saying nothing.

"You're entirely unable to put the player's actions into any sort of narrow context"

i disagree. any reasonable player should have aj at the least here and i still think that leading aj is garbage. i think villain played it bad and has tendencies of a poor player. convince me otherwise?

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree. any reasonable player should have aj at the least here and i still think that leading aj is garbage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except you don't seem to know whether content of the term "reasonable player" applies to your opponent here. In short, you have no idea what he's capable of doing so you can't make a good decision.