How to avoid crushing suck-outs over and over and over....?

[uliv1ce]

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A thought most people tend to forget:

Try not to call yourself off into a coin flip without great pot odds.

I.E. We call with AK because we hope to dominate weaker Aces. We call with AQ for the same reason. If we know an opponent has pocket pairs, don't put your money in without overpairs or two strong live overcards(suited connecting overcards)...50/50 shots with 55/45 pot outs are technically +EV, but since you can never be sure you're a coin flip pre-flop, you need to only *call* when you can be sure you're crushing the range of the raiser either through domination or just flat out giving him a 2-outer for his set.

I hope that rambling made sense; this same ideals is why I frequently push my suited connectors in the blinds, because good tournament players(and most bad ones later in a MTT) will fold ace rags because it's not strong enough, and if I run into AK, I'm not dominated. Domination is the key thing I *always* try to avoid when I'm pushing my small stacks. I'd fold A2 before 34s depending on the table and my image.

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Ok, so good advice and I do try to do that most times. The situations I describe, however, I am in a dominating position (usually 3 or 4 to 1) and the opponent has to hit a suckout card to win...and he does!

Happened again last night...I have AA on the button. Table folds to me and I raise 3X BB. BB Raises all in with KJ offsuit. Gotta call, right? He hits 4 spades by the river to dump me with his Ks.

So, from what I'm reading, I think I am doing the right thing, but am just on an unlucky streak (anyone want to take a space shuttle ride with me? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Thanks for the advice...it is much appreciated.

[uliv1ce]

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Ok,so you got some though replies,and no wonder,for this being your first post,it comes across as somewhat whiney,and,like someone already said,this is a strategy forum.

Anyhoo,I'll try to be nice here and give you an example....

You are in the WSOP ME,and it's bubbletime,one of the money,and you are 2nd in chips overall. You are in the BB,everybody folds around to the SB,who happens to be the chipleader. He goes all-in,you look down at AA. What do you do??

You call ofcourse,SB(prob Jamie Gold) turns over 2-5o,flop comes 2-2-5. Thankyou and goodbye.

You would never fold in this situation ever,you just happened to get unlucky.Money went in good,he drew out on you. Usually things aren't as clear cut obviously,but the moral of the story....as lons as your money goes in ina good spot,you did your job.

Even with this sick beat,you are "only" a little better than 4:1,so you will lose 1 out of 5 times.6:4? Lose 4 out of 10 times. There's no strategy to avoid bad beats.This is the simplest of math,if your money goes in before all the cards are dealt,the numbers take over. And similar to that,just because you lost on AA last time you had'em,doesn't mean you'd win 4 in a row before they are cracked again. If you were to play 50000 hands a month,you'd see that the numbers will pretty much even themselves out. If you are like me,playing mainly live,the number of hands you see are a lot smaller,and the bad runs seem to last a lot longer....on the upside,the good ones go on for a while to....I think

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My apologies if it sounded whiney...that's probably my frustration coming through; I do appreciate your patience and explanation. I do really want to know if my strategy is flawed somehow and it sounds like it is not. So, I appreciate the confirmation. Read my last post...matches your AA analogy. Oh well...now, can someone give me a Genie in a bottle? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Thanks again...

[Brann]

Hand 1) I'd do the same as you.

Hand 2) You KNEW he was on a draw? Really? Mini-raises are often made by players holding a small pair (like 3's) where they'd love to take the pot down before the flop. A set of 3's here would not have been a surprise. That said, if you have top 2 pair, why not bet the pot? Or at least 3/4s? Half just seems like an Ace-rag bet where you're "hoping" it's good. He might've made the move because he thought you had a weak Ace and could push you off of it. As a fallback, he had the draw.

All that being said, I've had about the same luck in those FPP WSOP qualifiers, so what the heck do I know? lol [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[shdw01]

gotta learn to take the suckouts and roll with the punches...if not, throw your computer in the pool, off the balcony, through a window, etc.

After a while, you will break all the keys on your computer and you will learn to type on feel alone!

[anjichpa]

There are two ways to avoid getting sucked out on.

1) Don't play.
2) Always get your money in bad.

Bad beats are part of play, and there isn't much anyone can say except to keep a level head and to walk away if its affecting your play. It might help if you try to view every play by your expectation from it when the money goes in. If it is positive and you lose, it's simply the cards.

[HY77]

If you think you're running bad now, you ain't seen nothing yet!

If you are a decent player, chances are you'll get your money in when your hand is better than the opponents, and thus you'll get sucked out on more often.

[ssnyc]

no question thats runs happen (both good and bad) and the bad ones really suck...have to stick with your game plan and try not to assume that the worst will happen...I made 3 final tables in 8 tournies...since I have lost every hand you have spoken off and then some...every race (both directions), over pair vs under pair and overpair vs SCs...

No question it sucks but as long as you feel you are making the correct decision and your bankroll can weather it it will turn!!!! Good luck and keep making them suck out to beat you...

[ssnyc]

for the record..still ugly and it sucks...feel like I'm playing nothing but AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK and been losing everything...It will turn...right?

[Dunkman]

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for the record..still ugly and it sucks...feel like I'm playing nothing but AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK and been losing everything...It will turn...right?

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Yeah it will, MTT variance is brutal. You have to be able to handle it to be a successful player...it's difficult for everyone.

[Cokeman]

I know the feeling...

When I get AA or KK in an MTT, my first tought is "it's over, good game, good bye"