Calling all-in with AK late in MTT with healthy stack

vandyhawk · #1 08-02-2006, 10:54 PM

Here's the situation. We're down to 14 out of about 345 in the Bodog 3.5k guarantee ($10 entry). I had been crippled but managed to double up a couple times in the last orbit to get to 34k, which was right at average. Blinds were 800/1600/150 for opening pot of 3450, so my M is about 10. Here are the stacks:

UTG: 88k
UTG+1: 20k
MP: 59k
CO: 37k
me: 34k, holding AsKh
SB: 67k
BB: 13k

The other table had far fewer chips total than mine, and I think I was in 7th overall at this point. First three players all fold, and player in cutoff pushes all-in for >20x the BB. I hadn't been at a table with this guy all tournament until we hit the final two, which hadn't been that long ago, so I didn't have much of a read on him. My gut and poker sense told me that he wouldn't be doing this with a very strong hand, as it's quite the over-raise and he's not desperate. I initially put him on a mediocre ace or possibly a middle/low pair that he doesn't want to fold but doesn't want to face a tough decision with if he gets called or re-raised. Of course he could have trash or AA/KK too, but unlikely. Here are the pros and cons I came up with at the time for calling.

Pros:
I'm likely far ahead or am at worst a coin flip.
If I win, I'm second in chips with a monster stack and ready to make a solid run to the top three where the real money is.
I've been on a rush (not really important but could be influence at the time).

Cons:
It's not a made hand, and there's a chance we're racing.
He could be pulling an elaborate push to make ppl think he's weak when he really has AA or KK ploy (unlikely though).
If I fold I still have a healthy, average stack.
I lose and I'm out.

What is your play here? What range of hands do you put him on to help you decide?

davidwrunner · #2 08-02-2006, 11:27 PM

At this stage of a tourney, unless the plyer is a rock then he is stealing with a wide range of hands.
This is a call everytime for me -likely to see any ace,any pair and even some suited connectors.
Call and win or lose you know u optimised your chance to win the tourney.

jason75 · #3 08-02-2006, 11:41 PM

I can't see how you don't call here, you're way ahead of his pushing range . . .

rothko · #4 08-03-2006, 12:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I fold I still have a healthy, average stack.
I lose and I'm out.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you fold, you lose. average stack is nothing. go for gold. easy call. you're ahead of villain 99% of the time.

PhatPots · #5 08-03-2006, 12:21 AM

I have to agree with the other posters. Well most of them you are not way ahead 99% of the time, some of the time it will be 50/50

you have to call because of his range as the other posters have stated. You can't be afraid of AA, how often does a player with a big stack just shove it all-in with AA?

Given that you are short handed as well, it could be as weak as A2s. If it is a small pair, well then its a coin flip. But we think it could be so many different hands that calling has very +EV, KQo

However, I would fold AQ without having seen CO do this before

skier_5 · #6 08-03-2006, 12:30 AM

CALL.

elliot · #7 08-03-2006, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
CALL.

[/ QUOTE ]

vandyhawk · #8 08-03-2006, 12:59 AM

I did indeed call b/c, like you all have said, it just seemed too +EV to pass up. I've finsihed 3rd and 4th in this tourney out of about 10 tries, and wanted a 1st or 2nd to go with those. I was right, and he had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Unfortunately he flopped a 4 and I didn't catch a king. I was pretty confident I'd made the right call but wanted to hear from others to make sure. Sucks to get unlucky, but I was happy with my play.

Vraket · #9 08-03-2006, 01:28 AM

Call..I had a guy at my right with 15 left in a 10+1..We traded chips a lot and I don't regret a single call I made.

a8 <at
kk >44
a7 <a8
aj >kt

Eventually I got all his chips =)

It's an easy call, you'd be amazed if you saw what filthy hands people push.

Superfluous Man · #10 08-03-2006, 01:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Pros:
I'm likely far ahead or am at worst a coin flip.
If I win, I'm second in chips with a monster stack and ready to make a solid run to the top three where the real money is.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have a winner. Keep thinking like this.

[ QUOTE ]

It's not a made hand, and there's a chance we're racing.

[/ QUOTE ]
It is a made hand against his range (or at least not a drawing hand), and a race is OK given the blind/ante overlay.

[ QUOTE ]

He could be pulling an elaborate push to make ppl think he's weak when he really has AA or KK ploy (unlikely though).

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, someone did this to me in the main event and I called with QQ and lost to his KK. The fact that he's doing it with JJ-88, AK-AQ and other stuff makes it +EV, and would be why I'd instacall him all over again if I had the chance.

[ QUOTE ]

I lose and I'm out.

[/ QUOTE ]
Who cares? You're not approaching some astronomical payout leap. You already said you want to get to the top 3. The best way to do this is by getting a big stack now, and abusing people on the bubble.