Taking a coinflip on Bubble of FT in Stars $10R ($35K Guaranteed)?

[kindling]

10 players left in the Stars $35K guaranteed, so we're waiting for 1 more player to bust out to get to the final table. I'm playing over my bankroll, so this will already be my biggest online cash yet. I'm currently 8th in chipcount, and my M has dropped to 7 (with 5 at my table, it's effectively 4), so I need to make a move soon. Villain is 9th, has an M of 4.2 (eff 2.3), so he's probably desperate. If I remember, I'd been fairly tight for a while, not getting many good hands. I'd been willing to play a little passively, moving up in the payouts by letting others bust out. I figure he'll push from the button with a pretty wide range, which I believe I'm getting odds to call.

So options are:
Fold - M drops to 6.5, and I hope to find a better spot fast or someone else busts out.
Call
- & Lose - M drops to 3, and I'm all in pretty soon.
- & Win - M increases to 12, knock out 10th player, get to FT

I wanted to treat this as a SNG and plug it into ICM, but I don't have a calculator that can handle payouts to all 9 or 10 places. Can SNGPT be adjusted to handle this?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40000 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t726416)
MP (t687789)
Button (t291040)
SB (t860984)
Hero (t499176)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t289040</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ?

So do you gamble here or hope for a better spot in the next orbit?

Thanks,
Kindling

[durkahdurkah]

Call.

[Sam T.]

Given your read, this isn't a gamble, it's a value call. If he happened into a hand, that's bad luck, but if he's any good he is pushing a huge range.

[mornelth]

1) I call this quick
2) Yes, SNGPT can be adjusted. If you give me the payouts and what you think Button pushes here I'll be happy to run it.

[CybrPunk]

You could always run SNGPT in cEV mode to get a feel for the overall EV of making the call. Since you have villain covered and there's no chance of you busting this hand this is definitely +$EV given your read and the likely range of the villain in this hand.

[mic_check12]

I call this so [censored] fast. I call with any ace and a helluva lot of other hands