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Old 09-25-2007, 05:21 PM
adios adios is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 8,132
Default Sub-Prime Crises Overhyped Baloney?

I'm starting to believe it is. I have no doubt that there was a panic in the secondary MBS markets but as far as liquidity for lending on real estate I'm starting to think the problems don't exist. That is there's plenty of money for qualified buyers but not sure about "jumbo" mortgage loans. Just my take based on anecdotal evidence.

How about a conspiracy theory to ponder. I watch a fair amount of financial shows on TV. In fact my wife has stated that she's constantly amazed at how many I watch. Of course I'm not looking for ideas on trading. I do it to find out what the various talking heads are saying as one way to gauge sentitment, albeit a crude one I'll admit (sometimes there worth a chuckle because people say some ridiculous things on these shows on occasion). Anyway I caught a little bit of Cramer on some CNBC market show and he stated that he believed that the Bush administration wanted to drive the smaller to intermediate lenders out of the mortgage market and leave it to the big banks more or less. Maybe and I found that take interesting. Housing is slow in some areas no doubt. No doubt that builders over built in places too. No doubt that prices in certain areas got to be overpriced too. However, sub prime lending represents a very small portion of total mortgage lending. I understand the transparency issue with CDOs and the securities issued but I'm wondering how bad the rating agencies got it when this all said and done. For example of MBS rated BBB- what are the default rates compared to corporate BBB-? I think it was TheDaveR on another forum that the bond market basically didn't believe the ratings on many of the MBS but not sure how bad the defaults are turning out to be.
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