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  #21  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:11 PM
Profish2285 Profish2285 is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

Take out 44 from there then and stove it just so you have an idea what the equity would look like if this is TT often enough. What Im getting at is that very few villains will take this line with an overpair. I really dont think this villain is one of those who would do this with a pair. Look at his AF, its not very high by any means, and his vpip and pfr are fairly conservative. If this guy has TT I would be shocked.
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  #22  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:13 PM
orlov orlov is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

44 isnt in stove in my post, but admittedly the more i think about it the more this line looks like a set, still if he does this with an overpair its breakeven. Just such a marginal spot :S.
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  #23  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:15 PM
Profish2285 Profish2285 is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

Sorry I misread it, but you should add in 56. Someone with a vpip of 20 is still conservative but likes to play sc's.

I am making his range a little wider and now adding in 54 as well since if we think he could do this with 44, he could also with 54.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,800 games 0.001 secs 19,800,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 6c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.626% 32.32% 01.31% 6399 259.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 66.374% 65.07% 01.31% 12883 259.00 { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, 44, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 5c4c, 5d4d, 5h4h }


---

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  #24  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:15 PM
orlov orlov is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

But he called in the sb so he will be oop, if we assume he isnt positionally aware hes also more prone to go spazztarded with Overpairs id guess.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.452% 38.84% 01.61% 6537 271.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 59.548% 57.94% 01.61% 9751 271.00 { JJ, 66-55, 33, 6c5c, 6d5d, 6h5h }


THis would make it 40% equity and thus breakeven?
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  #25  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:16 PM
ceavou22 ceavou22 is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

I have seen TT in this spot 3 times in the last week (2/3 were vs TAG). I think 99/88 are rarer but I've seen 99 take this line once that I can remember.

I agree JJ will most likely 3b PF but put yourself in villains shoes w TT. Say hero is unkown to villain he may reason that hero has 77-99 often enough for him to play TT for stacks on the flop.
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  #26  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:18 PM
orlov orlov is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

Thanks for the feedback guys, im off to bed now, will post results tmrw(altough they dont really matter [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])
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  #27  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:19 PM
Profish2285 Profish2285 is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

No, I really wouldnt convince myself I should play for stacks here with TT unless hero seems like an idiot to me.
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  #28  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:23 PM
Check_The_Nuts Check_The_Nuts is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

why would you raise the flop if at best case your like 40% equity versus a push range. Pretty sure those were the best numbers given so far (and they seemed incorrect to me).
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  #29  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:26 PM
Profish2285 Profish2285 is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

[ QUOTE ]
why would you raise the flop if at best case your like 40% equity versus a push range. Pretty sure those were the best numbers given so far (and they seemed incorrect to me).

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed about shoving here, very incorrect. What do you think would be more accurate numbers since Im guessing you think Im giving too much credit to villain here.
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  #30  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:50 PM
Worm75 Worm75 is offline
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Default Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

grunch

taggy player with low af 3bets me here, I don't have a problem with dumping the hand. I probably call here, but I have a problem folding..... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

If i call flop I am probably getting it in on safe turn, but not liking it.....

I don't like shoving here, flop is fairly dry and guys with this low AF don't go ballistic like this generally on a whim vs and unknown.

Also, this looks like standard donk/3bet line from a taggish player.
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