Late stage, KQo with low M in CO after EP-raise?

[Tackleberry]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
612 players started, about 45 remaining, avg. 40k
Blinds: t800/t1600
(Ante: t200)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t15905
UTG+1: t23997
MP1: t8006
MP2: t9065
Hero: t16605
Button: t19625
SB: t119008
BB: t20095

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t4800</font>, 2 folds, Hero ??

Just saw about 35 hands from Villain, he never stole the blinds, raised 3 hands, never limped. Is this an easy push anyhow - regarding my dwindling stack? Or should I call - having position on him and push any flop?

[gobucks27]

Fold..you even said villain has been playing tight..you're not ahead of most of his range here..even with 10BBs you're better off pushing 2 randoms cards in an unopened pot than calling off here..you've got some hands to wait for a better spot..

[jonnyd]

KQ over an EP raiser isnt a good look.

if he was LP i'd probably do it all day unless he was super tight

but your read was that he had been playing tight so go with that.

[Solent]

I was in a similar situation on the weekend, with an M of about 8 or so, I was card dead until I came up with J10o in the HJ. Well, the player to by right raised to 4BB (he had a big stack) and I pushed only because I had talked myself into playing the hand regardless of what happened. I still would've had some free hands before the blinds came around again, and I was likely beaten by his range. It's best to fold and wait to see if you can push a hand before anyone ahead of you raises. You can still see four more hands for free. You're just going to go busto here.

Villain's range is strong with his stack.

[Tackleberry]

OK, thanks! I actually folded - as well as AT before against the same Villain in a similar situation but went down in chips and finally did not came back into play. So I wasn´t sure if I played to weak maybe ...

Thanks for your answers!

[yNnOs]

Against villains opening range of: 55+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo
you're getting around 1.7:1 equity and 2.1:1 on your chips. Add in fold equity when he doesn't like his hand so much and this is such an easy push. Only if you're SURE his opening range is tighter than 77+,AQs+,AQo+ are you losing equity by shoving. Since it seems you are sure, as long as thats precise (which it almost never is), I'd fold too.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
[...]you're getting around 1.7:1 equity and 2.1:1 on your chips. [...]

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but I think, that isn´t 100% correct. As I hardly see Villain folding with the given range here if I push, I have to take the full stacks into account. Given this my odds are merely 1.25:1. Not that good any more ... That means, his FE must be enough to compensate the difference, which might be, but I´m not sure.

[yNnOs]

None taken. Well, he'd be getting 2:1 to call so I see your point. I think I'm confused. You'd be getting 1.25:1 if he'd open pushed, but he only raised. After you push and he calls, the pot is around 37K and you put your stack of 16400 (minus antes) in. So I believe you are getting around 2.1:1. Can someone help here, I get math-illiterate when drinking. =)

[JammyDodga]

I think you have to adjust for the players still to act as well.

If this was the SB or BB, id say this was a great time to stop and go, but being in position on the flop will actually be to you disadvantage.

[yNnOs]

With a low M, theres little to adjust for in terms of players behind. Besides, position means nothing when you're all-in. And if I were in the BB and SB raises, there is no stop and go, instashove. Also shoving if I'm in SB and its folded around.