Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for raptor

[curtains]

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A very strong GM getting pawn odds vs a computer - puter crushes him anyway

Pawn's odds are being significantly overrated by some in this thread.

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This match was a fast time control, which greatly helps the computer's chances.

[curtains]

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curtains,

about what uscf rating would you estimate a player would have to carry to be 50/50 with you playing down a knight? down a rook?

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Knight: 1400-1500?
Rook: 1200-1300?

Random guesses could be off easily.

[curtains]

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the only way i think durr or anyone else in his position would have a chance is to make it blitz, and hope that the GM you're playing is a blitz fish

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This is completely backwards. You're up a rook. The major way a typical club player would lose in that situation is to blunder. Playing blitz massively increases the chances of you blundering. I'd want it to be a correspondence game, if possible.

I think people are overestimating how difficult it is to win up a rook. Grandmasters are not magical. They can't change the fact of what is on the board. I would be a favourite against Garry Kasparov if he played down a rook. The basic gameplan is trade off as many pieces as possible, open some files so the rook is useful, and keep the king safe.

Contrast that with what durrr did (I've taken a look at the games now). In game 1 he failed to develop, instead playing the crazy Qa5 and stuffing his queen down on a3 in some attempted pawn-grab, when he's already a rook up. He allowed his king to be trapped in the center and broadly speaking that's why he lost. In game 2 he actually twice runs away from piece trades, retreating his bishop to e6 and then d7 when a trade with the knight is possible. The losing move in this game was d4 in response to curtains' e4. It not only closed up the center, reducing the power of his extra rook, but it locked all his pieces away from the K-side, where curtains is about to attack. Look at the board after ... c5 and notice how utterly locked out of the K-side durrr's queen is. It's going to take him like 4 moves to get her there if he needs to.

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Uhhh.... I was black in game 2.

Also its clearly true that speed chess would give me more of an edge than game 60.

Also any expert rated player should be a favorite over the World Champion at rook odds IMO.

[curtains]

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Curtains,

Is this your biggest chess score?

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Sadly for the world of chess, yes. That's unless you count the fellowship I won for like 64k over 2 years.

[curtains]

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the only way i think durr or anyone else in his position would have a chance is to make it blitz, and hope that the GM you're playing is a blitz fish

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This is completely backwards. You're up a rook. The major way a typical club player would lose in that situation is to blunder. Playing blitz massively increases the chances of you blundering. I'd want it to be a correspondence game, if possible.

I think people are overestimating how difficult it is to win up a rook. Grandmasters are not magical. They can't change the fact of what is on the board. I would be a favourite against Garry Kasparov if he played down a rook. The basic gameplan is trade off as many pieces as possible, open some files so the rook is useful, and keep the king safe.

Contrast that with what durrr did (I've taken a look at the games now). In game 1 he failed to develop, instead playing the crazy Qa5 and stuffing his queen down on a3 in some attempted pawn-grab, when he's already a rook up. He allowed his king to be trapped in the center and broadly speaking that's why he lost. In game 2 he actually twice runs away from piece trades, retreating his bishop to e6 and then d7 when a trade with the knight is possible. The losing move in this game was d4 in response to curtains' e4. It not only closed up the center, reducing the power of his extra rook, but it locked all his pieces away from the K-side, where curtains is about to attack. Look at the board after ... c5 and notice how utterly locked out of the K-side durrr's queen is. It's going to take him like 4 moves to get her there if he needs to.

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Plenty of Masters/GM have gone to Central Park and got owned playing speed chess. If youre reasonably good at speed chess ,this would def be the way to go IMO. Much easier to trade down in Blitz. And I certainly dont want to play a master in a game where he has time to think more than a handful of moves ahead.

And you would def not be a fav over Kasparov down a rook. Hes going to mate you long before that rook comes in to play.

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lol, GM's don't go to Central Park and get owned at blitz by random people. There is maybe one person who is a favorite over a random GM, but he is known to be GM strength himself in blitz chess (Yaacov is his name and he's only been around a few years). Everyone else who plays on the street or in the parks in NY, for the last 10 years, is not especially strong. Maybe master to 2400 strength at blitz but I would always have a huge edge over them.

[citanul]

wow, some of the estimations of how big or small a knight or rook odds are are totally absurd. i don't have a great estimation of what it is, though curtains likely does. however it's obviously a scale that changes. while skills and ratings clump near the top, (even due to just the plain rating adjustment formula being different for higher ratings than low) the same is obviously not true for lower and mid ratings.

my impulse is that no adequately strong (probably any random 2200+ish but maybe any random IM+ is what's necessary. but hey, i'd personally doubt that an expert (2000+) would lose to a champion given a knight) player would ever lose to the world champion if given a knight, and probably 2 pawns would be enough as well.

however the difference between a 1400 and a 2000 is just absurd, and considering we're probably looking at durrr being like an 1100-1200(?), and curtains being a 2400+ (uscf), well, it's just a ridiculous difference.

[curtains]

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I'm about 2100 (much weaker than IM) and from the looks of those games I would have easily won with the same handicap vs. durr. What a great bet lol.

As far as various handicaps, a GM would beat almost any basic master with pawn odds, much more so a weaker player.

A decent club strength player should be able to win with rook odds most of the time, and piece odds would be close.

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Somehow the games felt tougher than they may have seemed. durrr never flat out gave away material in one move and seemed to be working very hard. A lot of his moves lacked any chess understanding but I did feel like I had to calculate some stuff a few times and that if I made a careless mistake he was capable of picking up on it. I mean the first game was actually pretty competitive until he played ....Kf7 on like move 25-30. Despite that ok I'd probably win starting with 2 minutes on my clock, but it'd be a lot closer.

[curtains]

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Imagine if the prop bet was basketball

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This must be the worst analogy of the year by far. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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I don't think its a bad analogy at all. If a friend of Kobe Bryant offers me some prop bet in basketball for like 100k, I probably won't take it, regardless of how great it sounds for me.

[curtains]

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what was in it for curtains?

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10% freeroll

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Hey now, I negotiated a bit more than 10% [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I got like 8k, Im huge sucker.

[Victor]

curtains, i think i could take you at rook odds. im not rated or anything and dont have any real chess experience.