Justin Morneau

[sylar]

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OTOH, he's also very capable of hitting Schneid's predicted numbers too. He's the reigning MVP after all!!!!!!!!

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bwahahahaha!!! sorry. i thought you were being funny.

getting the award (as in not winning it. yeah, i am bitter) last season means nothing. yes, he improved his hit-chart last season, but his BABIP suggests that he may have been running kind of hot (as in lucky) after the AS break. .365 is high. high enough that only a few players a year do it, and most don't repeat.

sure, he probably won't regress down to .300 BABIP, but figures like .335-.340 are closer to where he *should* average. basically, this is why pretty much all of the prediction systems (Marcel, CHONE, ZiPS) say that his 2007 season will be around .300/33/100.

perhaps you could bump that line up because of his improved swing, but not necessarily 20 point and 20 rbi's.

anyways, that's just my 2 cents. also, i'd put $50 on morneau doing worse than .320/40/130.

[delta k]

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Meh, I think there is no reason why he won't hit about the same as he did last year, probably won't improve on it much but I doubt he falls off much either. I dunno about the power numbers- RBI are going to be determined by someone getting on in front of him, but his average should be >.320 without much trouble. I've read a couple different sources that predicted he'd win the batting title this year (which I think is a little ambitious).



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You see no reason? How about the season before last, when he batted .239 over 543 PA and the year before that where he batted .271 over 312 PA? His most recent performance is obviously the most important, but completely ignoring the 2 before that is insane. Penciling him in to 'see no reason' why he wouldn't have another career year avg wise is baffling and while it could certainly happen it's not exactly likely.

James

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You are absolutely correct, as I have never seen someone make an adjustment that improved their hitting during the season or off-season. I generally assume that someone's first 2 years or so of irregular, injury infested at bats are about as good as I'm going to get.

Because I struggled so hard to find anyone who could defeat the trend of improving on their first two years to fulfill their potential, I had to search long and hard to locate Rodriguez, Alex and see that in 1997 he had a paltry 23 diggers in his second full season. Man, you'd probably have traded him for a bucket of balls and some pine tar at that point because after a season like that it's hard to believe he could improve at all!

There's another guy I like and I think fits in well here because of his (former) position and team- David Ortiz! Look at that fat oaf, how could anyone possibly think that someone his size with incredible minor league numbers and strength would ever improve on his 37 home runs in his first 1000+ at bats?

James, thanks for the eye opening conclusion- it doesn't matter what he did, look at what he did before and recognize the fact that young hitters with tons of potential, size and minor league numbers can never improve on their rocky starts to become MVP caliber players! BTW when ARE you taking over that GM job, hack?

[THAY3R]

Put your money where your mouth is, it's real simple.

[kyleb]

will one of you idiots bet me already

[delta k]

Hey I never said he'd improve on last year, I just think that people suggesting that .280/25/90 will be his line this year are a little delusional.

I'd put his line for this year at .325/32/125 or so and be happy with that type of production. If someone wants to take a bet that he doesn't meet something like that I'm more than willing to do so. I'm not quite as crazy as everyone else I guess.

[THAY3R]

Okay, put me on the under on Morneau's BA.

Most I'd be willing to risk is probably ~$25,000.

[sylar]

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Hey I never said he'd improve on last year, I just think that people suggesting that .280/25/90 will be his line this year are a little delusional.

I'd put his line for this year at .325/32/125 or so and be happy with that type of production. If someone wants to take a bet that he doesn't meet something like that I'm more than willing to do so. I'm not quite as crazy as everyone else I guess.

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not the line i wanted, but i'll go $20. PM me.

edit: eh, make it $50 if you want. (kyleb/thay3r are giving me bet envy)

[kyleb]

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Hey I never said he'd improve on last year, I just think that people suggesting that .280/25/90 will be his line this year are a little delusional.

I'd put his line for this year at .325/32/125 or so and be happy with that type of production. If someone wants to take a bet that he doesn't meet something like that I'm more than willing to do so. I'm not quite as crazy as everyone else I guess.

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I'll take the under on his BA for up to $20,000.

[Thremp]

I'm sure I can find enough backers to handle close to six figures.

Fek being third in line though.

[MrFeelNothin]

put me on under .325 for all of my monies.


i think i am first in line though if delta k actually wants to bet anyone HA!