Big razz pot

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Your guaranteed to be raised by seat 1 almost always.

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wrong

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You need 10:1 or better to call here AFTER the action on the street is complete

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ridiculous

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(I prefer not factoring implied odds but there is some argument for that)

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horrible

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if we know that seat 1 is going to raise 80% of the time

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evidence please

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then you are getting odds of 17.73:2. Then when we factor seat 5's probably going to cap again like he did on 3rd street then this hand should go instantly in the muck, do not call seat 5's bet.

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weak, tight, wrong

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From 5th on its played correctly, you cant fold until the river because the pot is so large.

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very good analysis

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put your ego back in your pocket - its no secret your post was designed to help sell your coaching sessions - thats ridiculous because I am not your competition. And once your ego is back in your pocket go re-read Theory of Poker because if thats how you advise people to play then your teaching a new group of players to dive in while not looking at the obvious or an understanding of odds.

Folding on 4th street is poker 101, calling is fishy. Betgo is guaranteed to be calling a raise and possible a three bet, its a huge error. Anyone who has played limit poker and understands the mathematics of the game would agree... its a trap situation, your gonna get caught and your not getting the right odds to play on. You are 10:1 against outflopping both opponents on the following street, and even then you are stuck with a scenario where your all still drawing - which is why its probably best to not factor in the implied odds while still on 4th street because you might get stuck in a reverse implied odds scenario if the perfect storm hits.

Re: 10:1, I love the blanket "ridiculous" statement. Tell us all then what are the odds of outflopping both opponents on 5th street, I hope you don't end up looking like the emperor with new clothes. Even when you outflop the opponents on 5th nobody is going anywhere, its still a 3-way draw often enough because both opponents would see a 4 card hand.

Re: "raise 80% of the time" - perhaps I should have said 90%? Seat five capped on 3rd street and has the best board, he would be insane not to 3-bet vs seat 1's raise with (**)A9 unless he paired. A blind monkey can see that this is the outcome more often than not, Betgo was lucky it didn't occur.

Seriously - if your gonna disagree then at least give qualified responses with mathematical and analytical proof like I did in both posts, saying "wrong" and "ridiculous" with no meat to back up your statements is "amateurish" and "lame". I don't ever come out attacking or slandering you like this, its not cool.

[betgo]

On 4th, it is not at all clear that the 9 will raise. Also, it is almost 50% that the 5 paired, which is what apparently happened. If the 5 3-bets and I call, the 9 probably doesn't cap.

I can call one bet and reevaluate if it is 3-bet.

Also, you have to remember that the pot was jammed on 3rd street, so there is more incentive to stay in. Furthermore, when the 5 is paired, which is often, I am about equal to the other players who both bricked.

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Good post Betgo, but here is whats wrong with your analysis -

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On 4th, it is not at all clear that the 9 will raise.

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its pretty clear he will raise if he wants to get the hand heads up.


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Also, it is almost 50% that the 5 paired, which is what apparently happened.

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its not almost 50% that the 5 paired, where do you get that statistic from? Its true that results show us that its likely he paired, but there was no way to know that until after the action was complete.

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I can call one bet and reevaluate if it is 3-bet.

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Step away from Razz for a second because this may better help explain the concept. If you made the same kind of statement in the mid or high stakes limit hold'em forums for a hand where you have a draw and it would be shot with holes, the risk of being caught in a jam is too great. If your not closing the action, and its likely that the betting will reopen, then you have to fold.

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Also, you have to remember that the pot was jammed on 3rd street, so there is more incentive to stay in.

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I fully agree here, if you were getting 15.73:1 I'd call you crazy if you folded. If you were getting 9:1 closing the action I'd say its close enough than your fine peeling here. But your not being laid the proper odds to call and there is too great a risk of the action reopening. This all comes back to position, you are in between two guys who might jam away.

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Furthermore, when the 5 is paired, which is often, I am about equal to the other players who both bricked.

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correct, but again thats applying results oriented thinking, we didn't have any clue at the time that the 5 paired.

[oscillator]

i wouldve played that hand the exact same. id gladly go on listing reasons why, but it would turn into a how to play bfc or whatever he wants to call himself post, and i dont think thats fair. you need to raise him here, and hope you dont get callers behind. played fine

edit: i didnt read the responses and just threw out my post...perhaps i shouldnt half ass these thigns

re edit: THINGS was the word i was looking for.......things.

[betgo]

Given the preflop action, it is likely that seat 5 has two wheel cards. There are no 5s out there. It isn't 50%, but it is more than 35% that seat 5 paired.

Also, seat 1 has a very slight advantage with a 9 over a Q, particularly 3-way.

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Given the preflop action, it is likely that seat 5 has two wheel cards. There are no 5s out there. It isn't 50%, but it is more than 35% that seat 5 paired.

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I agree his hand is more likely than normal to hold a 5 and a 5 is likely the highest card he holds, but lets look at he distribution of cards unaccounted for to verify what the probability of this likelyhood is -
A - 2
2 - 1 (we can leave this out since he likely holds a 3-card hand)
3 - 3
4 - 4
5 - 3

So thats 12 unaccounted for cards within his likely range, a paired 5 accounts for 25% of the range. If we open seat 5's range to include 3-card 6's on 3rd street then there is a 20% chance he paired the 5.

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Also, seat 1 has a very slight advantage with a 9 over a Q, particularly 3-way.

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3-way hero's equity is 20% on 4th street assuming seat 1 has a 3-card 7 on 3rd street and seat 5 has a 3-card 5. If we tighten up seat 1's range to a 3-card 6 or 5 the hero's equity gets even smaller by a few percentage points. Heads up seat 1 is a small dog vs seat 5, and heads up you are a 32.5% -35% dog vs the 9's range.


So now that we know the hero's equity is around 20% that means his share of the immediate pot is 2.9 small bets when he calls vs two opponents with far better boards than the hero. Now assuming that at a minimum the pot will be 17.73 SB and the hero will usually contribute 2 SB on this street alone that means the pot is really 8.865SB (I am using this only as a benchmark, we could spend the time weighing the odds by making seat 5 3-bet 80% of the time and we could also estimate that seat one will raise 80% or more of the time to jam but I don't think its necessary since these scenarios only make the odds being laid to the hero worse). Since hero's equity is 20% on average that means his share of the pot will usually be 1.773 small bets.

Now if anyone here can honestly tell me they would call on 4th street knowing that their equity share will be 1.8SB at best if seat 5 doesn't 3-bet then I want to play with that person every day [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

All joking aside betgo's mistake is a common one made by expert players, I really don't blame him for misunderstanding here since its so common. But if you want to be a world class player then you have to separate yourself from the experts, this hand on 4th street is a good example of a situation where a world class player would adjust. Experts try to outplay their opponents by peeling one street, world class players know that through careful hand reading and logic the deck is stacked against him to do so. I strive to be world class (I am not and I would never pretend to be at that level), I know you do too. I hope you take the time to absorb this thread because its not easy to admit an error when you have been playing one way for so long. Feel free to PM me if you have questions that I need to revisit, I need to take a break from this thread because it sucked up too much time today [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[betgo]

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Given the preflop action, it is likely that seat 5 has two wheel cards. There are no 5s out there. It isn't 50%, but it is more than 35% that seat 5 paired.

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I agree his hand is more likely than normal to hold a 5 and a 5 is likely the highest card he holds, but lets look at he distribution of cards unaccounted for to verify what the probability of this likelyhood is -
A - 2
2 - 1 (we can leave this out since he likely holds a 3-card hand)
3 - 3
4 - 4
5 - 3

So thats 12 unaccounted for cards within his likely range, a paired 5 accounts for 25% of the range. If we open seat 5's range to include 3-card 6's on 3rd street then there is a 20% chance he paired the 5.


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You made a big math mistake. Seat 5 has 2 hole cards. If it is 20% each one is a 5, it is close to 40% one of his hole cards is a 5.

[*TT*]

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Given the preflop action, it is likely that seat 5 has two wheel cards. There are no 5s out there. It isn't 50%, but it is more than 35% that seat 5 paired.

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I agree his hand is more likely than normal to hold a 5 and a 5 is likely the highest card he holds, but lets look at he distribution of cards unaccounted for to verify what the probability of this likelyhood is -
A - 2
2 - 1 (we can leave this out since he likely holds a 3-card hand)
3 - 3
4 - 4
5 - 3

So thats 12 unaccounted for cards within his likely range, a paired 5 accounts for 25% of the range. If we open seat 5's range to include 3-card 6's on 3rd street then there is a 20% chance he paired the 5.


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You made a big math mistake. Seat 5 has 2 hole cards. If it is 20% each one is a 5, it is close to 40% one of his hole cards is a 5.

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I am double checking that now, I thought in this instance we don't have to factor in both cards to determine the probability because we know that the starting hand is unduplicated but to make sure I have an email out to my math genius friend. Can someone please chime in if they know for sure, thanks in advance.

[betgo]

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Given the preflop action, it is likely that seat 5 has two wheel cards. There are no 5s out there. It isn't 50%, but it is more than 35% that seat 5 paired.

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I agree his hand is more likely than normal to hold a 5 and a 5 is likely the highest card he holds, but lets look at he distribution of cards unaccounted for to verify what the probability of this likelyhood is -
A - 2
2 - 1 (we can leave this out since he likely holds a 3-card hand)
3 - 3
4 - 4
5 - 3

So thats 12 unaccounted for cards within his likely range, a paired 5 accounts for 25% of the range. If we open seat 5's range to include 3-card 6's on 3rd street then there is a 20% chance he paired the 5.


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You made a big math mistake. Seat 5 has 2 hole cards. If it is 20% each one is a 5, it is close to 40% one of his hole cards is a 5.

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I am double checking that now, I thought in this instance we don't have to factor in both cards to determine the probability because we know that the starting hand is unduplicated but to make sure I have an email out to my math genius friend. Can someone please chime in if they know for sure, thanks in advance.

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It is atleast 20% that each one of his hole cards is a 5. We assume his hole cards are unpaired, so he has two distinct hole hards, each one of which can be a 5. Therefore, the chance that he has a 5 is close to 40%.

Some people in the probability forum can probably give a more precise answer, but 40% is pretty close. I have a math degree from a good school and I know what I am doing with this.

[*TT*]

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It is atleast 20% that each one of his hole cards is a 5. We assume his hole cards are unpaired, so he has two distinct hole hards, each one of which can be a 5. Therefore, the chance that he has a 5 is close to 40%.

Some people in the probability forum can probably give a more precise answer, but 40% is pretty close. I have a math degree from a good school and I know what I am doing with this.

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no worries, I am admitting you might be right that I made a calculation error, I am just double checking to assure that its true. Looking at the hero HU vs (5-4-2)5 assuming the A and the 9 from seat 1 are dead cards, hero is a 36.5 to 63.4 dog. Of course the paired calculation doesn't factor in the strength of the villain's draw vs the strength of the hero's draw assuming both are 3-card draws. The equity calc shown above does which is why something still doesn't seem to be jiving. On the bright side regardless if there is a calculation error or not the recommended play is based on the equity sims so the best line doesn't change but I'm really curios to learn if I made a mistake!