NHL wagers I

New001 · #1 02-05-2007, 03:41 PM

I've expanded my soccer betting system to include hockey. I don't remember the last time I watched an NHL game, let alone any hockey game, though I do enjoy it when I watch. Keep that in mind.

Other than that, this is completely untested and might suck majorly. I mostly did this for totals, but I'm running the spreads through it too just to be safe.

2-6-07
New York Rangers +1.5 -250

2-7-07
Atlanta +1.5 -255 versus Buffalo
Pittsburgh +1.5 -260 versus Nashville
Minnesota +1.5 -215 at Dallas
Los Angeles +1.5 -130 at Tampa Bay
New York Rangers +1.5 -175 at New Jersey
St. Louis +1.5 -255 versus Toronto
Chicago +1.5 -115 at Calgary

Columbus/Phoenix U6 -110
Pittsburgh/Nashville U6.5 -110
Colorado/Florida U6.5 -120

Good luck!

136913691369 · #2 02-05-2007, 06:18 PM

laying that much juice in today's NHL usually isn't a good idea. Teams are liable to shut down on any given game, but best of luck anyway.

where are you betting these BTW?

New001 · #3 02-05-2007, 08:11 PM

Thanks, I'll be learning with everyone here whether it'll work or not. I've got all of my money in BetCRIS for now so that's where they're all going to be from.

New001 · #4 02-06-2007, 12:19 AM

Detroit 4 - 3 NY Rangers (WIN)

Against the spread: 1 - 0 - 0, +0.40u
Over/under: 0 - 0 - 0, +0.00u
+0.40u

jelly · #5 02-06-2007, 08:05 AM

Glancing at your card full of +1.5s and knowing where are you coming from (soccer), I think you should reconsider.
In the close game endgame, scoring in ice-hockey changes much more than in soccer because of empty net goals. Your system does not seem to be adjusted to this.
Totals should be fine and I am following on those.

New001 · #6 02-06-2007, 11:10 AM

Don't worry, I'm just tracking the spread bets for now just to see if there's anything there. I've got no delusions and right now I'm just assuming that the totals bets are good (or will be with some slight tweaking). Best of luck on those.

TheRover · #7 02-06-2007, 11:18 AM

I was going to ask you if you thought your system would work for those random Euro hockey leagues they had on Pinny back in the day, but never got around to it.

imo +1.5 lines are a good place to find value. i have no actual data to back that up, though.

New001 · #8 02-07-2007, 01:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
2-7-07
Atlanta +1.5 -255 versus Buffalo (WIN)
Pittsburgh +1.5 -260 versus Nashville (WIN)
Minnesota +1.5 -215 at Dallas (LOSS)
Los Angeles +1.5 -130 at Tampa Bay (WIN)
New York Rangers +1.5 -175 at New Jersey (WIN)
St. Louis +1.5 -255 versus Toronto (WIN)
Chicago +1.5 -115 at Calgary (WIN)
---------------------------------
Columbus/Phoenix U6 -110 (WIN)
Pittsburgh/Nashville U6.5 -110 (WIN)
Colorado/Florida U6.5 -120 (LOSS)

[/ QUOTE ]

Against the spread: 7 - 0 - 1, +2.78u
Over/under: 2 - 0 - 1, +0.80u
+3.58u

I like the totals bets and I feel I lucked into a couple of the spreads (especially Chicago/Calgary). I think you guys might be underestimating the +1.5, it seems huge but I don't follow the game anywhere at your level so who knows. I do know however that lines like +1.5 are difficult for me to cap in soccer because my system overestimates the dogs. Here though, the +1.5 is much closer to the +0.5 in soccer because of the shootout/OT. So often teams +0.5 are money in soccer. Then again, I'm not sober right now.

New001 · #9 02-07-2007, 02:01 AM

2-7-07
Phoenix +1.5 -120 at Detroit
Chicago +1.5 -140 at Vancouver

Philadelphia/NY Islanders U6 +110

Edit: Changed -110 to +110. Knew something looked wrong.

136913691369 · #10 02-07-2007, 02:02 AM

The problem I see is that you basically have to go 7-1 every night to show a profit. One bad night will totally wipe out your profits. Not to mention it's going to take a much bigger sample to know if it's a long term winner because you're 'suppossed' to win these games and even being something like 80-20 could be just variance while if you were 80-20 on a 50-50 type of bet you can be pretty confident that you're a winner.