PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 2)

PokerFink · #1 09-18-2007, 02:40 AM

After Week 2, we are left with a surprising quartet of 2-0 teams: Green Bay, San Francisco, Washington and Dallas. Everyone but Washington has a tough game coming up, so Week 3 will help determine which teams are legitimate and which teams are just running hot. (Oh, Detroit is 2-0 too, but anyone who watched that game already knows they’re just running hot.)

Meanwhile, the NFC South is a disaster. Who is the best team in that division? An 0-2 New Orleans team that has been blown out twice? A Carolina squad that just lost handily to Houston at home? Could it really be… Tampa Bay?

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are PROJECTIVE, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines. For a full explanation, please see this post.

1. CHICAGO (1-1) : The Bears went into an offensive shell earlier than usual this week to protect a miserable Grossman (20/34-160-1, 2 picks, 3 sacks). With the running game sputtering once again (3.7ypc), Grossman was consistently faced with third and long, and Ron Turner decided to take the safe approach with Bad Rexy. Which meant a lot of third down passes into the flat and a lot of leaning on the defense. Fortunately for Chicago, that defense is outstanding, and combined with the incomparable Devin Hester is more than enough to deliver wins over sub par competition. But they have above par competition next week, and if Rex can’t get it going against the porous Dallas secondary, he may never get it going. NEXT: vs. Dallas.

2. WASHINGTON (2-0) *UP 6* : 2-0 Team That Is Better Than I Thought: The Skins were an impressive match for the Eagles tonight, and created more big plays to secure a massive victory. The offense was especially impressive on third down, converting 8 of 15 chances. The Skins will jockey for position with Dallas until the two teams finally meet in week 11. Right now, I think Washington is ever so slightly better, and so I give them the slightest of edges to win the East. But their depth is paper thin and they’ve already suffered several injuries – they need to stay healthy to stay atop the division. NEXT: vs. New York Giants.

3. SEATTLE (1-1) *UP 1* : The darlings of National Jump To Conclusions Week, Seattle fumbled their way back to Earth with a loss to Arizona. The Deion Branch acquisition is finally paying dividends, as the Super Bowl 39 MVP hauled in 7 catches for 122 yards this week. NEXT: vs. Cincinnati.

4. NEW ORLEANS (0-2) *DOWN 1* : Oh, my, what a disaster. After falling behind by four touchdowns, New Orleans abandoned the running game and let Drew Brees chuck it up 44 times with mediocre results. They never came close to catching up. It’s been a disastrous start for the Saints, but the good news is that someone has to win the weak NFC South. Just one game back, I’m willing to give New Orleans the benefit of the doubt for one more week, and one more week only. NEXT: vs. Tennessee.

NOTE: Let me restate this for everyone who doesn’t read the disclaimer. In accordance to my guidelines, the top four ranks are who I think will win each division and get the top four playoff seeds – which is not necessarily the four best teams. New Orleans is obviously not the 4th best team in the NFC. In a “normal” power ranking, I would have them down with Carolina. But someone from the NFC South has to be the fourth seed, and if I had to put some money on it, I would grudgingly place that money on New Orleans winning the division. Likewise, Seattle would fall below Green Bay and Dallas in a "normal" power ranking.

5. GREEN BAY (2-0) : 2-0 Team That Is As Good As I Thought: The Packers dismantled the Giants in the fourth quarter, showing that they have at least a little bit of offense to go with that terrific defense. NEXT: vs. San Diego.

6. DALLAS (2-0) *UP 3* : 2-0 Team That May Be Better Than I Thought: Like Green Bay, Dallas pulled away with an impressive second half offensive performance. The defense is still terrible, but made a pair of goal line stands in the first half to keep it close and set up the second half explosion. One advantage Dallas has over Washington is a higher upside; if Dallas can fix their secondary problems and Romo continues to play well, they could be scary good. I don’t think Washington can be scary good. NEXT: @ Chicago.

7. SAN FRANSISCO (2-0) *DOWN 1* : 2-0 Team That May Not Be As Good As I Thought: For the second straight week, the Niners survived a nail biter, this time winning by the slimmest of margins as Jeff Wilkins missed the game winning 56-yarder by about a foot. The Niners were outgained by more than 200 yards, but pulled it out thanks to some good red zone defense and six sacks. They’re winning with smoke, mirrors and luck so far, but they will need more than that against a legitimate 2-0 team next week. As for Alex Smith, his most glaring problem is that he holds onto the ball too long. This doesn’t bode well against the aggressive Pittsburgh defense. NEXT: @ Pittsburgh.

8. PHILADELPHIA (0-2) *DOWN 6* : [broken record]The Eagles are better than their record.[/broken record] For the second week in a row, McNabb showed some good mobility, even scrambling twice for 15 yards and a first down. But the receivers had trouble getting open, and when they got open McNabb overthrew them, and when McNabb threw them a good pass they dropped it, and when they actually did catch it, they only got as far as the red zone before screwing up and settling for a field goal. Two very winnable games approach, and with McNabb struggling, Philly must ride Brian Westbrook back into the race. NEXT: vs. Detroit.

9. CAROLINA (1-1) *DOWN 2* : The NFC South is wide open for the taking, but losing at home to Houston is not the way to seize control. After last week’s solid performance, DeRunningBacks combined for just 53 yards on 17 carries (3.1ypc) and a fumble. NEXT: @ Atlanta.

10. ARIZONA (1-1) *UP 1* : I’m impressed by the Arizona run defense, which has held Frank Gore and Shaun Alexander to a combined 125 yards on 36 carries (3.5ypc). After giving up a late lead to the Niners last week, Arizona gave away their early 17-0 lead this week. But the Cards got some good fortune for once, in the form of a fumbled handoff between Alexander and Hasselbeck in the waning minutes, and they cashed in. NEXT: @ Baltimore.

11. DETROIT (2-0) *UP 3* : Huge kudos to Jon Kitna, who was a warrior in this game. Calvin Johnson caught another touchdown pass, this one on a short fade route. CJ met the cornerback at the front pylon, gave him a little shove, then turned around and used his huge body to shield the defender for the easy score. DT Cory Redding had an excellent game, and so far is justifying his massive new contract. NEXT: @Philadelphia.

12. MINNESOTA (1-1) *DOWN 2* : I loved Kevin Williams’ impression of Tommie Harris, as the big defensive tackle stormed through the Detroit offensive line to tackle O’Sullivan before he could handoff. The resulting fumble was scooped up by Ray Edwards and taken to the house. The rest of the defensive front was a good as always, registering five sacks while limiting Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun to just 36 yards on 14 carries. But Tavaris Jackson threw four picks, and despite Detroit’s best efforts to give the game away, Minnesota politely declined and insisted “no, you have it”. NEXT: @ Kansas City.

13. ST. LOUIS (0-2) : The good news is that the passing game, which collapsed last year without Orlando Pace, showed some promise without the big left tackle – Bulger threw for 368 yards. The bad news is that the Rams still haven’t solved their red zone problems from last year, meaning short field goals instead of touchdowns. Add in three fumbles and six sacks, and the Rams gave away a game they dominated and should have won. NEXT: @ Tampa Bay.

14. TAMPA BAY (1-1) *UP 1* : From Bizarro World, we get a final score of Tampa Bay 31, New Orleans 14. The 1st, 3rd, 5th and 7th drives for the Bucs produced three 3-and-outs and one first down. Meanwhile, the 2nd, 4th, 6th and 8th drives for the Bucs produced four touchdowns and a 28-0 lead. That was more than enough. NEXT: vs. St. Louis.

15. NEW YORK (0-2) *DOWN 3* : Eli Manning made a surprising return to he lineup and played well against the tough Green Bay defense, completing 16 of 29 for 211 yards, one score and one pick (76 rating) while taking only one sack. Backup RB Derrick Ward also shined, gaining 90 yards on only 15 carries. But it wasn’t enough to save the miserable defense. NEXT: @ Washington.

16. ATLANTA (0-2) : Phew. Exhale. We finally waded through this mess and got to our friendly basement dwellers. Back in 2001, 0-4 Washington met 0-4 Dallas on Monday Night Football. In four weeks time, Atlanta hosts New York in what could be an 0-5 vs. 0-5 crapfest for all time. NEXT: vs. Carolina.

vixticator · #2 09-18-2007, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After Week 2, we are left with a surprising quartet of 2-0 teams: Green Bay, San Francisco, Washington and Dallas.

[/ QUOTE ]Sigh. No respect. Deeeetroit Lions are 2-0! Thoughts to follow.

PokerFink · #3 09-18-2007, 02:43 AM

Poll Time.

PokerFink · #4 09-18-2007, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After Week 2, we are left with a surprising quartet of 2-0 teams: Green Bay, San Francisco, Washington and Dallas.

[/ QUOTE ]Sigh. No respect. Deeeetroit Lions are 2-0! Thoughts to follow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not even reading the entire intro before posting ftw!

Case Closed · #5 09-18-2007, 02:44 AM

I am gonna be honest, I generally just read the number one team and then skim the rest. =D

MyTurn2Raise · #6 09-18-2007, 02:46 AM

Arizona is obv #1

vixticator · #7 09-18-2007, 03:04 AM

I will not comment on rankings but each team as I see it (using your order): I'll do a few at a time. Er, well, half. Let me edit in some more.

1. CHI- Didn't see Bears play this week. Looking at what Pats did to San Diego has me slightly concered about Bears inability to produce on offense. Of course that's expected. Defense was sick. Not the clear best team in NFC but in the mix.

2. WAS- Winning first two games is huge for a team like this, especially when one is on road against division winner last year. Insert standard old school Skins ball comment here. Defense good. I wholly expect they will get owned by a quality AFC team, Miami does not seem to meet this criterea.

3. SEA- Team does not inspire me. Losing to Arizona in that manner is pretty sick but at least it was on the road. Even though Tampa lost to them in week one I think on neutral field it could go the other way. Kind of a 'meh' team. Quality players on both sides of ball, not sure they can live through injuries when/if they happen. Week four is a huge game for them.

4. NO- I saw both games as broadcasted entirely. As no team in division is undefeated no time to push panic but this team is lost on both sides. Offensive line is getting mauled. Both times against similar defenses, Colts + Bucs. Brees is getting pressured a lot, running game non-existent. Recievers playing terribly. Reggie Bush needs to get it going on the recieving end, he's really their #1 reciever and Payton IMO needs to forget about making him a great RB for moment and get him involved in pass more. When both opponents have sick fast defenses I guess this is tough to do. Defense, especially secondary, is [censored] hopeless. They HAVE to score a lot of points to win.

5. GB- Second best defense in NFC IMO. Even though SD hasn't looked well on offense it'll be a great achievement if this defense holds LT and company in check. They don't need to win this game but holding it close will tell us a lot. A great defense with average to slightly below average offense can go a long ways in NFC, ask Bears. FWIW, I have more faith in Packers offense over Bears. Difference in defenses makes it about a push overall. Bears have better special teams. But, do I think Pack can beat Chicago twice? Sure.

6. DAL- Agreed on just about everything you said. As long as Owens stays healthy this offense should produce. Glenn/Crayton are an issue if they can't go but with quality play from Romo I don't think this is a huge issue with Owens tearing it up. Witten is really good, basically #2 guy now. They just need to play more I-formation and run ball with Barber/JJones if both recievers miss time. Defense is a huge question mark but it's better than, say, the Saints. Obviously. We know where great offense and no defense can take you in NFC.

7. SF- Definitely expect them to get owned by Steelers this week. However, Marshawn Lynch did run reasonably well against them so maybe Gore can really get into form and gash the Steelers. Probably not. Offense has been poor. The defense certainly has potential to be very good, this year. Willis looks like a stud and they have two excellent corners. Probably one of those teams that will continue to play close games, if they can improve and/or be lucky I like them slightly more than Seattle.

8. PHI- You can kind of afford to start 0-2 in NFC. McNabb got his groove on a bit in final minutes of game but Washington wasn't playing all out at the time. I really don't see this as a Culpepper type situation. McNabb isn't losing games. Recievers do need to step it up. Westbrook must be involved more. When does Lito Sheppard come back? Defense isn't as good as it has been in past yet. With those players on d-line rotation you'd think this will turn around.

Jeff W · #8 09-18-2007, 03:11 AM

I think Carolina>New Orleans. New Orleans has allowed 11.5 yards/attempt on defense... sick. I know it's two games but that is just retarded. The track record of 0-2 teams is pretty abysmal (~10% make playoffs IIRC?), though they're in the right division to buck the trend. Carolina is top 12 in all four yards/attempt categories(rushing and passing on offense and defense). Again, two game sample caveat etc but that is a good indicator of productivity.

PokerFink · #9 09-18-2007, 03:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When does Lito Sheppard come back?

[/ QUOTE ]

He is week-to-week.

[ QUOTE ]
Defense isn't as good as it has been in past yet. With those players on d-line rotation you'd think this will turn around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Defense is about the same as it has been for the past few years - above average but nothing great. The great defense of 2001 and 2002 disappeared in 2003 and hasn't returned.

cmstaab · #10 09-18-2007, 03:46 AM

It's nice to see Dallas getting some love!

The defense was greatly improved, and this is still without Terence Newman who allows them to cut the blitz loose with his single coverage, and BTW is very underrated around the league. Dallas is expected to sign Tank Johnson after week 8, which should help fill the NT void if he can stay on the field. 5 forced TO's is also nothing to scoff at, and I expect the sack production to increase as the players adjust to Wade's system.

The inflated opp. passing figures have atleast a little to do with both NYG and MIA playing catch up for substantial minutes.

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