Luck vs. Skill

[ThomasDayton]

I find in my new found love of poker that at smaller stakes and cheaper buy ins that a lot of times (though you feel you are doing everything right "by the book") that people suck out wins more often because they stay in just on a prayer and a string. I have not played large stakes (though I go to Atlantic City once a month and play a $40 buy in tourney [won it once!]) but I seem to see that at larger stakes and buy in's it more of poker by the book and so skill. Where as small stakes (not to mention play money) there is a lot of luck. Does any one else see this and is poker by the book still the way to play at every level or should you compainsate some how at lower stakes?

[EsandWhizz]

If people are sucking out on you it means your getting your money in ahead which in the long run will make you money. I play 50nl and make money off fish who call with gutshots looking for the suckout. The odd time they make it i generally dont pay them off and know that long term these players are building my bankroll.

[Small Fry]

At the lower levels where players make the mistake of playing too many hands and going to far with them playing ABC poker is the way to go. You start with the best hand, or a hand that can easily improve to be best and value bet like crazy as the tendancy is to call too much. Bluffing is almost a waste. Almost. At this level you can afford to make a few mistakes as your opponents will make more.

As you move up levels the skill level of your opponents improve. You are now forced to take steps to misreprent your real hand to get them to make errors. Hand reading skills and knowledge of players habits (generally their bertting tendancies) become more valuable. Finding value becomes tougher.

Basically, your opponents make less mistakes so you have lost some of your edge. Some of them might also be good enough to get you to make more mistakes. This adds up to much tougher play.

Playing by the book at the higher levels might still generate a positve return, but it will be nowhere close to what that style generates at the lower levels. And as someone alse replied, if they're calling with the wrong odds then just keep at it, you'll get the money eventually. But it can be a bumpy ride (variance)

[SellingtheDrama]

Here's a little reality about poker - you can play perfect and still lose. AA is the best starting hand in holdem, but it is not 100% to win - that means it will lose, no matter what you do.

The trick to doing well in the long run is identifying when you are ahead and behind from street to street (flop-turn-river) and getting the bets in when you ahead, and getting out of the hand when you are beaten.

[BestLuckEver]

You cant get away from the odds in the long run. If you're a 3 to 1 favorite to win the hand, you may lose a couple times, but in the long run it will even out, just make sure to have a proper bankroll for variance, so your good decisions don't force you to move down because you lost x amount one night on a bad beat.

When you play at such low stakes, it really is good strategy to just play abc poker. Nothing fancy, no indepth moves that inexperienced wouldn't catch on to.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
I find in my new found love of poker that at smaller stakes and cheaper buy ins that a lot of times (though you feel you are doing everything right "by the book") that people suck out wins more often because they stay in just on a prayer and a string. I have not played large stakes (though I go to Atlantic City once a month and play a $40 buy in tourney [won it once!]) but I seem to see that at larger stakes and buy in's it more of poker by the book and so skill. Where as small stakes (not to mention play money) there is a lot of luck. Does any one else see this and is poker by the book still the way to play at every level or should you compainsate some how at lower stakes?

[/ QUOTE ]

At low stakes with short stacks and recreational players you need to play very tight, and don't bluff. Read up on Ed Miller's short stack strategy. It's boring, but if you have a deep enough bankroll and if you always start with better hands that you raise with and then play aggressively by default, but folding when appropriate, you will win money.

Don't call preflop raises with low pairs if you have to call more than 10% of the effective stacks. More than 5% you should often consider folding depending on your position, who raised, who still has to act, etc. (the 5/10 rule).

Don't chase flushes by calling.

Don't chase straights by calling.

Don't play weak hands in early or mid position.

Don't play suited connectors for a raise because "deception" is worthless.

Don't semi-bluff.

And once you are into the pot for about a third of your stack, very rarely fold if you hit your hand. You'll be good often enough to make calling/pushing +EV.

Don't slow play.

Don't continuation bet if you have a multi-way, medium sized pot and you missed completely. Someone will call. Try to get a free card if you can.

There's probably a lot more advice - but it's still all basic poker adjusted for short stacks and weak players. Maybe you need to buy a better book, like Ed Miller's.

Oh, and in low-M, low-buy-in tournaments with rapidly increasing blinds, you need a lot of luck. You also need to go all-in a lot more preflop much sooner and with a much wider range of hands than you are probably doing now. NLHETAP has a section on this. So does HoH Vol 2, and a number of other good books.

[Soupy]

i think you will find suckouts more common at lower stakes than what you see at higher stakes simply because more players get it in bad more. this will increase the amount of times it happens but not the percentages, just know you got it in good and that you made a good play.

dont let it tilt you when someone catches on you, think of it as a good play regardless of the outcome.

[Nsight7]

And remember, if you see people sucking out on you more often than you are sucking out on them, it probably means you are doing something right (or at least better than them).

Plus what everyone else said.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't chase flushes by calling.

Don't chase straights by calling.

Don't semi-bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good stuff Albert. However, these first two lines seem to contradict the last line. Well, maybe not contradict but you seem to have no room for playing draws unless you get a free card.

I get your intention but I would amend that you shouldn't chase like they do which is against the odds. If you have good odds, then call. And actually figuring out your implied odds can be fun and there might be some hidden value there, especially for straights which might be oblivious to a guy with top pair.

As well, I agree about semi-bluffing since the bluff component is usually much lower than normal. However, betting with a nut draw may be profitable at a table where nobody will raise you but everyone will call. It's almost like creating your own calling odds.

Another thing. In most of these games, the players are betting and calling. So when you see a raise, it is usually something very big. Having said that, raising your draws may get their attention and get you a free card or you may even get the fold component. While these players are generally suspicious and chasers, a bet is called a lot more often and quickly than a raise.

Finally, I think position is ultra important in these types of games. Since the action is usually transparent, having position can get you into good situations and out of bad ones.

[ThomasDayton]

I thank you for this post it answered my inquiry along with who you were re: too. I seem to be getting flack on other posts I made to the point where i was in doubt of this site (if it could be helpful.) I feel you answered me along with the Re: very well and I understand what you are saying. I love the live play in AC with the $40 buy in tourney, it feels like poker!