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#121
11-26-2007, 04:43 PM
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Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?
[ QUOTE ]
well it did happen. Got up to 26 at one point? So we've set a new unofficial record. However, the line is unlikely to be that high anytime in the near future as people realize that the Pats are not perfect, and that even a crappy looking team can keep it very close with them. Suppose the lines will plummet after this one. [/ QUOTE ] I think that is a bad assumption. The Pats are still 9-2 ATS and are playing a pasty in their next game. Baltimore is one of the worst teams in the NFL, and I think the linesmakers may actually be starting to realize that. It was looking like the line for this game was gonna be -20, and I don't see a reason to change it. If you're talking about all of the public's money pouring in on NE regardless of where Vegas opens the spread, then I tend to agree with you - that is over until the next time NE blows someone out. I don't understand why everyone is putting so much stock in one game. The same people who were ripping "squares" for annointing the Pats as invincible after only a handful of games are now paying attention to nothing but last week's game. 
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#122
11-26-2007, 05:34 PM
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Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?
For my square side angle. I think NE will be motivated by the "close call" this past week. If you can being a betting fave the entire game a "close call".
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#123
11-26-2007, 06:46 PM
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Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?
NE -20.5 @ Bal is now available in some places.
I see it as -20 on Sportsbook and -20.5 at 5Dimes. According to DonBest, it is -20.5 at the Hilton. According to Americasline, it opened at -20 and is -20.5 now.
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#124
11-27-2007, 01:02 AM
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Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] GG 21+ pt dogs. [/ QUOTE ] Pitt did beat TB 42-0. [/ QUOTE ] PHL not an expansion team, so poor comparison, but yeah, I know my history as well.
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#125
11-27-2007, 01:07 AM
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Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?
I agree if they cover v Balt then the lines will just keep going up and up for NWE.
I think the point some are making is that, while NWE is 9-2/8-2-1 ATS [aren't you being the results-oriented one here?] they are 3-8 giving 24+ [for future reference.] At some point a reversion to the mean is going to occur, and not every game will be against BUF missing their starting QB and RB and CB. The NYJ could be off the charts ugly so that spread will be interesting to see.
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#126
11-27-2007, 02:05 AM
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Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?
[ QUOTE ]
I think the point some are making is that, while NWE is 9-2/8-2-1 ATS [aren't you being the results-oriented one here?] they are 3-8 giving 24+ [for future reference.] [/ QUOTE ] First of all, this is not correct. They are 3-6-2 against a 24+ point spread. You mean to say 24.5+. Secondly, when did this kind of square logic gain serious currency? Miami has not covered +2.5 all year (0-11)... therefore we have to assume that any team @ Miami will have to be at least a -2.5 pts favorite? That is ludicrous. You have to look at which two teams are playing. Who cares what the Patriot's have done against an arbitrary 24.5 point spread? Why would anyone even mention that? On top of that, the average score of their 11 games has been 40.2-16.8, they have won 2 games by exactly 24, and they have won 8 of their games by more than 20! They have some of the worst teams in the NFL left on their schedule (Baltimore, NYJ, Miami). Two of those three are at home, so you should get used to the big spreads. Just because they only beat Dallas by 21 doesn't mean they won't beat the Dolphins by more than that. Accusing me of being "results oriented" for mentioning the Pats as 9-2 ATS is also ridiculous. We are 11 games into the season, and I think we can make some educated guesses as to the relative strengths of the various teams. Coming into the season, it was widely believed that Baltimore was better than Cleveland. After 12 weeks, how many people would still hold this viewpoint? Do we have absolute proof that Cleveland is the stronger team? No, we don't. But based upon the information that we do have available, it is possible to come up with an educated opinion. I wouldn't call this "results oriented" thinking. It's true that we don't have a huge amount of data, but we still have enough to form an educated opinion. [ QUOTE ] At some point a reversion to the mean is going to occur, and not every game will be against BUF missing their starting QB and RB and CB. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, some games will be against even worse teams. [ QUOTE ] The NYJ could be off the charts ugly so that spread will be interesting to see. [/ QUOTE ] Well, if it is over 24.5 we know it is an automatic bet on the dog for anyone who mentions the invented 3-8 Against 24.5 Point Spread statistic. Of course, anyone this illogical would also take Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.5 @ Patriots. I mean, what the hell is that stat supposed to have to do with anything? Finally, you owe me $100. If you want a double or nothing bet, I will take NYJ @ NE -23 or Mia @ NE -23 right now. This offer is based on your "gg 21+ dogs".
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#128
11-27-2007, 10:10 PM
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Re: Patriots line -24.5 before the end of the season?
You are being results oriented to quote their ATS record, I was simply making fun of such behavior by quoting a different ATS record. Pretending otherwise is silly, and they will revert to the mean.
NWE is 1-2 ATS this month if we want to keep using small sample size to generalize to extravagant conclusions, and covering vs a completely wounded BUF team ain't saying much.
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