A couple insights

[BitterChris]

In low-limit holdem,

1. A set is a DRAWING hand, you are really hoping to fill up. Tell the truth, doesn't your heart just sink when a straight or flush card comes on the turn or river in a MW pot?

2. On the river, an overpair or TPTK is a MARGINAL hand. With all 5 cards out heads-up, one pair is not a big favorite over most of the hands your opponent might have, especially if the hand started out MW as the do in a low-limit game. And from The Theory of Poker, you should only bet if you are the favorite if you are CALLED.

Take the following example, you have TPTK and your opponent is an utter fish who will go all the way to the end with any pair, a gutshot, or any two hearts. This example even exludes some of the heart card combinations (7h4h,7h3h,6h5h,6h4h,6h3h,5h4h,5h3h,4h3h), PokerStove will not take that many characters:


Board: Qh Th 5c 9s 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.9948 % 55.44% 01.55% { AcQd }
Hand 2: 43.0052 % 41.45% 01.55% { 22+, ATs+, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, KTs+, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, QTs+, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h3h, 7h6h, 7h5h, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

You are less than a 55% favorite to have the best hand (since not all flush combinations are included), even though he would have to have to have either made a set or have two good cards to win. You should not bet in this instance (if there is only a possible straight OR flush on board you may want to bet, especially if he would call with less than top pair, a pocket underpair, or ace high). With four to a straight or flush on board heads-up, or with 2 or more opponents on the river with a possible straight OR a flush on board, things get even worse.

[BostonMetro]

You don't need Pokerstove to realize that you shouldn't bet the river in the last seat when you flop top pair and the straight turns and then the flush rivers (multiway to the flop). I think it takes keen board reading skills to understand when value betting is correct - and that is why we are all posting here. I think that ironically the most interesting part of your post is that we actually ARE a 55% fave on this disgusting board and thus in most other cases betting the river is mandatory. Good analysis though.

[pikkupossu]

i dont think your hand range for villian is large enough. for someone who will go all the way to the end with 'any' draw and 'any' pair, with that flop, basically he has 'any two cards'

therefore, your range is too small, and our equity is more often than not way, WAY higher than 55% in this scenario.

actually, now that i look over the post again. is this just a joke post? ok ok, you got me man, seriously. where is the camera? am i on tv? guys?

[BitterChris]

Yes, I forgot some hands, I could see this guy playing Q9 and some other hands. But this actually DROPS your winning chances, and you would be even less inclined to bet on the river.

If your opponent was tight, I would not bet the river here either (as Sklansky says, because he is likely to have you beat if he calls and will not pay you off if he doesnt).

If this was an average game, this board would be only moderately scary heads-up. I would value bet here if I could put a predictable player on a hand like jacks or TPGK. The best people to value bet are those that are easily readable, fish are not.

- This thread was brought about by a section in "Low Limit Holdem" in the chapter "Play on the River", it clearly states that you should almost always bet the river (even when the preceding section tells you to bet only when you want to be called), and that this was the most important revision to the second edition of the book.

Now, I've come to take advice from non 2+2 books with a grain of salt, but this is really off base.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
In low-limit holdem,

1. A set is a DRAWING hand, you are really hoping to fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

"LOL"