1st level WSOP ME w JJ

[TCA]

I think this is actually a pretty easy call. I mean the flop is bad but imo AKJ is infinitely worse. Some player reads would be nice here, but I don't think that many players are putting in such a small r/r there with QQ (and probably are putting in 3rd raises with QQ very rarely). Also I agree that AK doesn't put that bet in very often either. We should really be discounting QQ and AK imo or at least weighting them as a much smaller percentage.

Also this is ME which means 2 things:
The players are very very bad.
There is this huge thing about players not wanting to go broke with KK preflop and running into AA. This makes me think that AA is probably at least slightly more likely than KK.

If we are up against KK, we have 10 outs.
Against AA they have 12 outs if Td not exposed. (or perhaps 2 if they are really awful).
The pot is giving us a huge overlay even with 1 card to come.

The diamond is actually quite important even though it appears to just average things out(if you are behind you at least have a live draw now and if you are ahead you probably aren't so far ahead now) it means you are never too far behind in this hand and should make you more inclined to call.

Some quick pokerstove shows:

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7s
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.405% 24.40% 00.00% 41 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 75.595% 75.60% 00.00% 127 0.00 { AdAh, KK }

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.310% 36.31% 00.00% 61 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 63.690% 63.69% 00.00% 107 0.00 { AdAh, KK }

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7s
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.966% 14.97% 00.00% 44 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 85.034% 85.03% 00.00% 250 0.00 { AdAh, KK-QQ }

Board: Kd Qd Jh 7d
Dead: Tc Th

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.952% 30.95% 00.00% 91 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 69.048% 69.05% 00.00% 203 0.00 { AdAh, KK-QQ }

The diamond changes this hand from a clear fold into a clear call (I found this quite surprising). I haven't even included the possibility he does this with no d aces which he could if he is very bad.

I think though that the flop decision is the most important and when you decide to call here you have to assume you are playing for stacks. Im sure some people with disagree here though.

Sorry this was just really quick so could be a ton of mistakes in here.