Maximum winrate @ NL10 ?

[Fiasco]

OK, heres the deal. Ive got over 5k at stars and im just now moving up to NL100 (I know, im a nit). Ive only got $160 at FTP and my plan was to grind my way up from NL10 to the real stakes rather than just get someone to do a transfer for me.

Well, im about 700 hands into my NL10 grinding and its sucking out my will to live.

TO spice things up I thought I might engage in some bets with people about what kind of bb/100 I might be able to put together at these tables.

So Id like to hear peoples theories about what the highest midterm winrate would be.

[BlackRain]

Get a transfer or just take a shot at NL25. The rake in the FTP NL10 game is absurd relative to the stake. I am doing the exact opposite as you currently at Pokerstars. If you've beaten 50NL-200NL at something reasonably good like 3-5ptbb/100, I think 10-12ptbb/100 should be sustainable at NL10. The play is really really terrible there.

[Fiasco]

I agree that 10-12 should be sustainable. Would you be willing to wager monies that I couldnt do 15?

[BotOnTilt]

Sounds like a waste of time to me. I don't really understand these bankroll challenges, why would it be so fun and challenging to play at a lower level?

If you are a proven winner at NL50 then why not just take a shot at building your BR with 3 bins? Someone can probably help in your transfer if you bust.

[Bostik]

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If you are a proven winner at NL50 then why not just take a shot at building your BR with 3 bins? Someone can probably help in your transfer if you bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

There may be some pride involved. 3 buy-ins is too short, since if you're not willing to go bust, it's scared money. And if you're not willing to sacrifice the whole stack, you're keeping away from the most profitable situations.

If I was a solid winner in NL50, and had just a little over $150 in bankroll to start with, I would play NL10 until the roll is somewhat over $200, then jump to NL25 and play up to $750.

It's not much of a safety margin but a good player, one would think it's adequate. 8 buy-ins for for first jump, then ~12 for the next.

Just a thought.

(Edit: silly typos)

[Fiasco]

1) I hate going bust. Rubs me the wrong way. What if I get stacked by some LAGtard pushing any two cards and I cant reoload? yuck
2) I wanted to try NL10 to see what it would be like
3) Im actually kind of curious to see what kind of bb/100 numbers I could put up, I think they are much higher than most ppl would figure they could be.
After about 600 hands I seem to be running at just under 35 ptbb/100. I think 20 ptbb/100 might be sustainable and I think there are ppl willing to bet money that it isnt.

[No1Addict]

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After about 600 hands I seem to be running at just under 35 ptbb/100. I think 20 ptbb/100 might be sustainable and I think there are ppl willing to bet money that it isnt.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is variance and your win rate will stabilize somewhere around 15bb/100 when you get a few k hands in.

Aside from that, I've been grinding from NL5 and up and it sucks big time. If you can get the stake to play higher and you have the skill to do save yourself the trouble.

[EN09]

[ QUOTE ]
1) I hate going bust. Rubs me the wrong way. What if I get stacked by some LAGtard pushing any two cards and I cant reoload? yuck

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i dropped multiple bi's at 10nl to coller hands three dyas ago. spot on, yuck.

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2) I wanted to try NL10 to see what it would be like

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closest thing to a freeroll you'll find at ftp.

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3) Im actually kind of curious to see what kind of bb/100 numbers I could put up, I think they are much higher than most ppl would figure they could be.
After about 600 hands I seem to be running at just under 35 ptbb/100. I think 20 ptbb/100 might be sustainable and I think there are ppl willing to bet money that it isnt.

[/ QUOTE ]

11ptbb/100 prior to the hammering i took, down to 7-8ptbb/100 and climbing after yesterdays 900 hands. 20ptbb/100 is an extremely high number to maintain

EN

[BotOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
3) Im actually kind of curious to see what kind of bb/100 numbers I could put up, I think they are much higher than most ppl would figure they could be.
After about 600 hands I seem to be running at just under 35 ptbb/100. I think 20 ptbb/100 might be sustainable and I think there are ppl willing to bet money that it isnt.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think 40BB's/100 (20ptbb) is sustainable at NL10. In NL5 I think it, and more, could be very well be possible for a good player. The thing is that an FT NL10 you are paying 10% rake and since so many players are short stacks at this level I think you are going to find those win rates hard to keep.

[toymach776]

I currently have a 10NL winrate of 13.04 ptbb/100 over 12.5k hands. I still have some leaks in my game that when fixed could bring this to stabilize around 14.5 ptbb/100. I think that 20 is unsustainable over the LONG run. good luck.