SB defense with KQs

ChickenGeorge · #1 10-20-2007, 11:05 AM

Titan Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1.00 (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

Villain is 17.7/7.5/2.34 over 1k+ hands. His att. to steal is 21%, but in the last few sessions I played with him he had been stealing quite aggressively. I suspect he adjusted his blind stealing range but the stats weren't yet reflecting that due to the large sample.

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
5 folds, MP3 raises, 1 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, MP3 raises, Hero calls,

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( 9SB )
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls,

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( 5.5BB )
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls,

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( 7.5BB )
Hero bets, MP3 calls,

Final Pot: 8.85BB

Preflop cap worried me. When I hit TP2K I decided to take a WA/WB line with a b/f (instead of c/c) on the river.

Correct? Or is there a better alternative?

Thanks.

bennyhana · #2 10-20-2007, 11:19 AM

nh.

if he will call down with QQ or JJ or AQ I like raising the turn.

Fadook · #3 10-20-2007, 11:38 AM

Well played. This is a WA/WB situation and the best way to gain the most when you're ahead and lose the least when you're behind.

Bulletproof Monk · #4 10-20-2007, 12:09 PM

perfect

JJack · #5 10-20-2007, 12:27 PM

*Grunch*

I would play all hand c/c.

River b/f I think is mistake cus if we assume villain's rage is:
TT+,AQs+,AQo+

then when we bet he will fold all we would win (AQos)
we only beat QQ with is 3 combination (we hold one Q) and JJ (6 combination)

If we are behind (most probably) we are behind of AKos (12+4), KK (3), AA(6), TT(3)

So we are ahead and we will probably call if we bet = 9
we are behind and we just lose 1 BB and risk being bluff = 28

So at river we are about 3:1 underdog

Bulletproof Monk · #6 10-20-2007, 12:49 PM

JJack - we beat QQ, JJ, AJs and AQ. all of them are calling the river for one bet.

no legit hand can really raise us once the flush draw gets there except for exactly AsQs. if you think we risk being bluffed at that high a ratio then b/c.

JJack · #7 10-20-2007, 01:40 PM

Do you really guys think that villain will call this river with A hight?

Fadook · #8 10-20-2007, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really guys think that villain will call this river with A hight?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but he'll almost certainly check it behind and we end up missing a river bet either way.

beyazkus · #9 10-20-2007, 06:02 PM

* g *

ok, lets do some math... after he capped preflop we can put him on a narrow range of hands considering his pfr of 7.5%: QQ+ and AKs, AKo seem standard. but considering that he raised from the hijack and could conceive of your 3-bet as a defensive raise then it would be fair to assume that he would cap with JJ, AQs, AQo, and possibly AJs. so taking into consideration his whole range:
JJ - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways (you have a Q)
KK - 2 ways (you have a K and one on board)
AA - 6 ways
AKs + AKo - 8 ways (you have a K and one on board)
AQs + AQo - 12 ways (you have a Q)
AJs - 4 ways

so on the flop there are 25 ways that you are ahead while 16 ways that you can be behind presumming our assumptions are correct. in this case a raise is mandatory as you are a favorite to be ahead, and as his response to your raise will help you determine where you are at. notice that being a favorite to be ahead doesn't make you a favorite to win the hand, as your op has considerably more outs if you are ahead, as opposed to your slim number of outs if you are behind. so the key aspect remains to raise to see where you are at.

if he 3-bets you on the flop then check / call turn, check / call river... if an ace or another spade hits on the river give a crying call...

if he doesn't 3-bet the flop, then by all means bet the turn too, if you get raised check / call river same as above.

if he doesn't 3-bet the flop, and calls your bet on the turn, then bet the river as long as a spade or ace doesn't hit. if they do hit (as in our example), then it is probably better to check and call, as you will get raised with a better hand if you bet and will have to call, and by checking you gain the possibility of inducing a bluff, or a bet with a worse hand.

JJack · #10 10-20-2007, 07:36 PM

*g*

ye
You make good math (I miss count something ;P)
But KK has 1 combo not 2.

With math I agree. But rest I dont.
You can be ahead but also behaind but if villain has AQ or AJ u want he c-bet also turn - cus he has then only A outs clean.
So when u ahead u wanna he put money at pot and when u behing he can fold those hand and only raise with better so u will pay more if u are behind and u will kick out 3 outer when ahead.