A question to the 45-man turbo regulars

flyingmoose · #1 08-01-2007, 08:14 PM

Regarding variance.

I've played about 400 games at the $55 level and have an ROI of about 30, but the variance has been a little extreme. In my 400 game sample I've had 4 separate out of the money streaks of 20+ and three different times I've been stuck 15 buy-ins and come back to book a 15 buyin win during the course of no more than 80 games. To anyone with a huge sample in these, is this sort of variance common? If it is I'm going to stock up on pepto bismal, because if a 20-buyin streak happens every 100 games than a 50+ downswing is only a matter of time.

MJBuddy · #2 08-01-2007, 08:19 PM

Sherman did the fun math. Would take 1500 games to have a 95% accuracy on variance, I believe he said.

woohoo88 · #3 08-01-2007, 08:27 PM

This ROI simulator might be able to show you what you're looking for. Though I haven't played with it enough to be sure.

flyingmoose · #4 08-01-2007, 08:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sherman did the fun math. Would take 1500 games to have a 95% accuracy on variance, I believe he said.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure you don't mean ROI instead of variance?

In any case I realize my sample is really small, which is why I'm looking to expand it by finding the experiences of others.

mutigers5591 · #5 08-01-2007, 08:55 PM

id be very suprised if there were many ppl over 400 of those played they are pretty new

out of curiosity what is ure stars name iv prolly played a copule with u

MJBuddy · #6 08-01-2007, 09:03 PM

Yes I mean ROI :P.

I play lower limits, but the math should be about the same since it only incorporates field size and variance.