bad bet size or bad bluff???

[SengioKang]

UB 2.20 bounty post money a few hands into new table 9 handed it's folded to me in hijack w/ KQo w/ 15000ish...

blinds are 6/1200t w/ 125 antes

i raise to 4500 preflop and SB calls (22,000t)... he's a tight player appantly w/ not a great cash rate


flop is 367 and check check (i'm not upset about missing a cbet here was planning for delayed cbet)

turn is 3 and check check (here's where i should have bet i know.... delayed cbet)

river is 4 it's checked to me and pot is 10000 i bet 5000
since the river brought a 4 straight rainbow and i put him on 2 hi cards.
1. wrong bet size?? should i have just pushed 10,500 all in?
2. horrible post-oak bluff?
3. or heroic play after no strength shown

he called w/ AhJh and wins w/ hicard

this might be the first post of mine that sherman won't hate me for

[SengioKang]

ps... i was really glad i played the hand slow and didn't exercise first in vigorish w/ an M of 7 preflop... at least i theoretically gave myself a chance to win???

[erc007]

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i raise to 4500 preflop

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???...this is pretty bad IMO. Make it 3K or shove when u have 15K to start the hand. If u make it 4500, u should be shoving any flop. I don't know what sherman will say, but this hand is misplayed on every street.

[ssnyc]

why raise so much pre? KQ is not a hand I want to build a big pot with...if you are going to raise pre I cet this flop and if called slow down unless I hit...raise to 3Kish pre and bet 3750 on flop

[Pokerfarian]

Folding preflop certainly isn't out of the question, it's a really bad stack size to steal with and KQo in the Hijack isn't absolute must play.
I don't think shoving is +EV but Im too lazy to check, so I like a 3K raise if you're going to play it. This means you can make a nice sized cbet of 4K, making your opponent pretty much having to decide whether to play for all his chips or fold (hence increase FE), whilst you can get away from it with 8K left.
As played you have to just shove somewhere, I'd shove flop & as played turn.

[ShizzMoney]

I don't mind the raise PF; it is a bit much but with the antes in there and a SB that covers you, you want to discourage action with the KQ. Your PF bet is probably the reason why your villian just called, unless he is passive all the way.

You gotta shove that flop though. If villain calls with A high for all your chips on THAT flop without two hearts on the board, then you just gotta tip your cap to the villian.
By checking it down, and THEN betting on such a dry board for a raised pot on the river, you give him a chance to be curious. Villian gave you a chance to steal this pot, IMO, and you gave it back to him.

By betting PF and the shoving flop, you represent a big hand or PP to him. Can't leave your babies in the middle, especially on such a dry board where the first bettor usually wins.

[j4lvlie]

bad bluff

[creamfillin]

[ QUOTE ]

2. horrible

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[Stumpy]

PokerFarian,

He has 15k in chips and KQo. The pot has 3k in it. He's the hijack.
You should stop being too lazy to do the math for shoving if you think this is -EV, because you're way off.

If you assume top 10% for a calling range (which is too wide for the first few positions) KQo is +800 chips or so. He's said the SB is tight, which improves it a bit more.

Also, raising to 3k and bet/folding 4k is pretty terrible. The pot would be 24k and you'd have 8k behind. At that point KQo unimproved has the odds to call basically any flop without an A in it. The only hands you wouldn't have odds against are sets+ and QQ+.

-Stumpy

[SengioKang]

i didn't raise to 3000 because i hate the bump-and-a-half raise. PERIOD. i find that all it does w/out a premium holding is open me up to attack by a huge reraise by the one guy that has me covered on a resteal that gives me odds to call in this situation... 3000 pot + my 3000 raise + his 3000 + his overbet of 12000 to put me in.... so that's a little over 21000 and my last 12000 to call. 1.8:1... and a difficult decision that would pretty much justify a crying call against anything but AK, AQ, and QQ+.

and for him to call 2400 w/ 725 invested is pretty easy considering it was 10% of his starting stack. and especially considering the fact that the pot would have been offering him over 2/1 which gives him odds to call alot more hands profitably such as ace rag, and subsequently the big blind behind him was short and who i was trying to isolate for a bounty in the first place.

so with 40 to go in a 600 person tourney, KQo is a pretty strong holding and with an M of 5, anything above 10 8 off is pretty much shovable. i 3-bet and added some for the antes because i wanted to take the pot down preflop and didn't want to run into someone who felt compelled to call an all-in shove w/ a good ace or pair... which is basically what happened anyway.

the turn card was scary... i felt like it was a trap and wanted to give him one more opportunity to extract value from a made hand on the river if he had one where i could easily fold to a bet... which is why i checked behind... to see what he did on the end.

the way the hand played, if i cbet 1/2 the pot on the flop i'm called... cuz w/ 3:1 odds the guy would be 30ish% to hit an overpair to 10s or 9s and backdoor a flush. a shove i'm not sure if he could call getting 2/1... but he reasonably could have. and with a 1/2 pot bet i lose the same 5k and more being pot committed.

i missed my chance to steal w/ a delayed cbet on the turn. that's where i lost the hand... the guy told me that he wouldn't have called on the turn too if i bet.

but i'll give him credit, he made a sick call of what was designed to look like a suck bet with a pair of 10s or 9s that i was too scared to bet into a scary board or even a flopped full house... or even a value bet w/ AK or AQ hoping that high cards would win.

on the downside, my river bluff put me smack in the lower half of the red zone as opposed to just on the edge .... a huge mistake.