Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 24 cards that will be uncomfortable to see on the turn, maybe more (any 9, any 6, any 8, any T, any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

24!!! Now your opponent won't be able to use all 24, but you won't know which card he's looking for.

[/ QUOTE ]

And he won't know which ones YOU are looking for.

There are a ton of scary cards for your opponent too.

AhKh will miss on 2/3s of the turn cards.
99 will see hearts, 4, 6, 8, T on half the deck
86 will see hearts, 8, T worry him, for 1/3 of the deck.

Pressure works both ways, but it works harder to scare the guy who is playing out of position.

-g

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. It's not because I think he has the best hand. To me, the small check-raise suggests a strong draw, an over-pair, or a complete bluff.

At this point, I only see two options: push all-in or fold.
And while I suspect I have the best hand, it could be quite vulnerable to a heart or even an overcard. The chance that an all-in will get villian to fold or call with a draw is outweighed by the possiblity of getting outdrawn.

At this early stage of the tournament, the most important thing I can do is to survive. I just don't see the point in putting everything at risk on this one hand, even if we have the best hand right now. If villian has a heart draw, there is about a one-in-three chance that this will be the last hand. If villian has an overpair, there is at least a one-in-four chance that this will be our last hand. I'm not willing to take that risk so early in the tournament.

Of course, there is a time and place to gamble. I just don't believe this is one of those times.

That said, I can't wait to find out that villian has 72 off-suit. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

After all, what do I know?

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I think i disagree with literally every sentence in your post.

Oh wait, you are vulnerable to a heart, so I guess i agree there.

-g

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
And he won't know which ones YOU are looking for.

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Very true, but the pf caller is more likely to have a low suited hand than the pf raiser. Remember, we're working under the assumption that the caller won't put us on our hand. So he could very well feel alot less "scared" than we do if an 8/6/ or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls. So he could bet alot of cards that we find scary if he has us on a highcard/highpair range.


I wish the action on the flop was a little smaller, then I wouldn't feel such a need to take this hand down.

But the discussion is good.

[CarlSpackler]

1) Do you fold, call, or raise (and why)? If you raise, to what amount? Putting aside a fold for the time being, there are certainly merits to both calling and raising so please spend some time on your thought process here.


I think our Hero's t140 bet looks like a standard continuation bet, so the villain may just be trying to steal the pot with nothing. It's also possible the villain is semi-bluffing w/a flush draw or straight draw, and his CR is aimed at forcing us to check behind him on the turn if he doesn't make his hand, so he can get a free card on the river. Or the villain may have caught a piece of this, possibly with a draw, too.

Folding here is not an option, as the pot is laying almost 4 to 1 odds, and I think we're ahead here the vast majority of the time. If we reraise, we're committing at least 1/4 of our remaining stack, and building a huge pot. If our reraise is called by the villain, and a scare card comes down on the turn, then we're in a real quandry if the villain leads with a big bet that leaves him pot committed. These are the main reasons I'm against raising.

If we call, and the villain does have a made hand that we're ahead of, such as an overpair or tpgk, then there's a good chance he fires another round on the turn. This is good. The biggest benefits of calling is that we keep the pot size down, and keep our hand disguised. Of course the main argument against calling is that there are several danger cards which could hurt us on the turn, since our bottom 2 pair is vulnerable.


2) His range of possible hands is obviously pretty huge but if you care to speculate feel free?


With a range this large, I'm going to start by eliminating certain hands. I don't think villain defends his blind with a junk hand like 95. It's highly improbable that the villain has 55 or 77, since there are only two of each left in the deck.

As for the hands he may hold, he could have: A5+, K9, Q9, J10, J9s, J8s, 109s, 66, 88+,108s, 98s, 87s, 86s, 76s, 65s


3) If you call or raise and he calls, do you have a plan for future streets?

If the villain bets the turn, I'm probably calling, unless a danger card falls, at which point I'll reevaluate. If the villain checks the turn, I'll lean towards betting, depending on what cards falls.

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Call. I can’t imagine why you’d do anything else. His hand range is pretty wide here since this board looks scary so fold is bad, and if you raise and are played with then you’re even money or behind.

2. Preflop he could be playing 50% of his hands. Making a play back at you doesn’t narrow his range at all.

3. If you raise and he calls then that narrows his hands significantly, and that’s great. The problem is that if he doesn’t call but instead reraises you’re in trouble since straight/set/better two pair have you crushed, and some draws like JTs or 64s or 76s are close to even money and can make you incorrectly fold. It opens you up to a big mistake but makes it harder for him to screw up.

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Everything you said. I think its a little bit of a closer decision than you do though. There are a handful of hands that probably will get all on with us on the flop that we have a lot of equity against that slow down on the turn. Specifically flush draw and two overs and pair+straight draw hands. Those types of hands think they have a lot more outs than they do, but will look to play a smaller pot on the turn. Still though, thats not enough to make a reraise appealing given how often he can get off a worse made hand, or get all-in with a better one.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
Still though, thats not enough to make a reraise appealing given how often he can get off a worse made hand, or get all-in with a better one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that being too worried about hands that beat us here is a little ridiculous. I doubt he's actually got 95 or 97, and there are only 5 different ways he can have a set here. Contrast this with the 18 different ways he can have TT-QQ and the 24 different ways he can have A9/K9 and the million+ ways he can be on a strong draw here, and I don't think worrying about sets outside of the context of a much broader range of hands is very productive.

[MLG]

I agree with that. I dont see how the point argue against a call though.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think squeezing out another couple hundred chips out of a 9 or a draw not getting quite the odds they need warrents letting the turn come cheaply. There are 24 cards that will be uncomfortable to see on the turn, maybe more (any 9, any 6, any 8, any T, any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

24!!! Now your opponent won't be able to use all 24, but you won't know which card he's looking for.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, this could potentially be a way ahead, way behind type hand. As such, if we make an additional raise on this flop we risk going broke against a hand that already has us beat.

Yes, our opponent may be on a draw, perhaps a draw with a pair. We don't know if our opponent is on a draw, if it's a draw to the straight, the flush or both. Or if the board brings a third 9 whether that helped our opponent or not.

But, scare cards for us (specifically flush cards) are likely to scare our opponent as well.

The kicker here is that we maintain position over our opponent, which makes it difficult for him to continue betting into us unless he already has us beat or hits his card (and it allows us to get out of the hand without losing all our chips, if we need to get out).

If a scare card hits on the turn and our opponent continues betting, depending on the amount, we can call or fold. If it's a small bet, we can call with position and see what develops on the river.

If it's a large bet, then we can fold and lose a smallish/medium sized pot and still have a strong enough stack to continue on.

But, our call of his min check-raise on the flop might slow him down on the turn. If a scare card hits, and he checks again, we can check behind and he'll try to bluff us on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just read this whole thread. I don't understand why some people are so scared of a heart on the turn. We've been HU since before the flop. As another poster said, if the villain has a suited hand (and that's a big if), he's holding 2 hearts < 25% of the time. Are most players really this scared of a 2-flush flop in a HU pot? I think this is something you need to worry about a lot more in multiway pots rather than HU. This just seems like playing scared to me.

If any heart other than the the 6h or 8h shows up on the turn, I'm betting if checked to, and almost always calling when the villain bets. Now if running hearts come on the turn and river, then I'll be concerned.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with that. I dont see how the point argue against a call though.

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You seemed to be implying (and others were saying more explicitly) that one of the reasons to call and not reraise is fear of getting raised back. I'm not very scared of getting raised back because I'm not worried that I'm beat here.

Combine that with the lost action from a bunch of 9 and 7 outers that think they have significantly more outs, and I think the only real argument for calling is to see a turn that makes things easier for me. As I showed in my first reply, turns don't make things as simple as you'd expect here.

[MLG]

3 reasons to call and wait for the turn:

1. Many made hands will hang themselves on the turn, but will fold to a flop 3-bet. Hands like A9/K9/JJ will almost always put more money in on the turn but fold to the flop 3-bet. This is very important.

2. Many/most drawing hands will put more money in on the turn here even when they miss. AJ of hearts will follow through on the turn even when it misses, so will all sorts of combo draws. Now we get the money in as a bigger favorite. Or, if they hit we at least maybe dont go broke (alhtough except for the worst cards we still probably end u losing a lot while we call down).

3. Much less important, we sometimes don't go broke against better made hands.


The usual argument here against calling is that a scare card on the turn will lose us action against weaker made hands. Thing is, in this spot those made hands you are worried about losing action against will often fold the flop anyway if we 3bet. I just dont see you losing all that much action from a big draw that misses the turn.