basic satellite question

Heist · #1 08-10-2007, 05:48 AM

FTOPS Satellite:

94 get paid, we are probably ~130 men

~45 mins to play, maybe an hour

I have 9k chips

blinds are 200/400 (maybe with ante, doesnt matter much)

mp2 minraises, I hold AJo and I am ahead of his range.

Do I take a higher variance play or do I relax this time?

Where in these woods would I draw the line? (regardless of obvious spots)

paging adanthar?

Edit: Is there a proper way to calculate this?

Mcmatto · #2 08-10-2007, 05:57 AM

You have to fold here... You have a good stack and good position in the tournament. Use pokerstove and put AJ up against his range.. your not that big of a fav... Its amazing how bad people play towards end of satilites... have others make mistakes and cruise ur way to a seat...

Heist · #3 08-10-2007, 06:22 AM

Move should be +cEV in a vacuum. I'd like to know how to approach such marginal situations.

pa3lsvt · #4 08-10-2007, 10:20 PM

Need to know how many chips PF minraiser has and what kind of range a minraise represents. That's usually a fold, regardless. You aren't looking for coinflips or 60/40s this late in a satellite. You are looking to steal from medium stacks and only get involved in pots when you are the opener or hold BIG hands. AJo is not a big hand.

4CardStraight · #5 08-11-2007, 02:53 PM

Ummm WTF, we have well over 20BB and only a third of the people need to drop for our seat?

I fold AQo here. AJo is lightning speed muckage. My range to push here is JJ,AKs. I maybe flat call AKo.

Your goal with this stack size should be to blind steal about once per orbit, or even every two orbits.

We also probably need to know stack size of raiser

In order to calculate this, we need to know what is our likely hood of foldign into the seat. That means we need to know where we sit in the tournament average. We also need to know what the average chip stack is of the bottom 45ish people (those below 94), we also need to know the blind escalation rate (turbo vs regular, and any inflections coming like a big ante double or anything). In this type of a spot, my gut feel is that folding is highly +$EV. so much so that I would want to be +EV to the tune of about 20% of my stack before I would consider getting involved. Usually that means only seriously premium hands, or opening from late position into players that I could bust.