AA waits till turn

[Gurravasa]

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Not waiting 'til the turn here would require special read/history for me.

Another consideration is future hands. You'll usually have wiffed this flop and will be peeling with overs/backdoor draws. If you pump it on the flop everytime you have an overpair your flop action gives your hand away. Against observant players this results in being outplayed in future spots like this. There are two ways around this:
1) Raise the flop with overs sometimes
2) Wait for the turn with overpairs

In my experience 1) results in being called down and losing a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The more I think about this hand the more I really hate a raise on the flop. It's like telling you opponents: hey I have an overpair and now that you all know you can play accordingly and charge me maximum if you beat me and get away cheaply if you don't. If you're the kind of player that would raise AQ on this flop you can raise an overpair and still get action but if you usually peel this flop with overs then a raise gives your hand away completely.

Raising on the turn makes it harder for villains to read you hand since they may think the turncard helped you. But if you call flop and it goes bet-call on the turn and the turn card connects with the flop you should probably not raise.

[Oink]

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BB will not bet the turn a very large % imo


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If he don't thats not bad, that probably indicates that his hand is not very strong or that he donked a draw. Now we can act according to that information.


[/ QUOTE ]

IMO its quite bad

This is a flop raise for me because when I call and a K comes of they check, I bet and one of them folds. I want to get value now on the flop while I can


[ QUOTE ]
It's like telling you opponents: hey I have an overpair and now that you all know you can play accordingly and charge me maximum if you beat me and get away cheaply if you don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

They cant know I have an overpair cuz I would also raise any fd, A7, K7, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 98dd, T8dd, T9dd 33, 66, 77, 54s. So if they try handreading they will realize that overpairs is only a fraction of my hands. If not its great for me when I have those other hands.

[acehole60]

I don't agree with Gurravasa's arguments either. But I wish you would dissect my comment instead of his. Personally I think that BB's range consist mainly of draws and one pair hands together with some strong hands that maybe must be discounted a bit. Furthermore I expect him to bet a good amount of the time on the turn. I maybe leaning towards a flop raise too, especially if you could convince me/disprove this:

[ QUOTE ]
You make good points and my default is definitely to raise the flop. But my reasoning was like this: I expect BB to bet again on a lot of turn cards. Maybe not a spade 4 or 5 unless he hit a draw. I'm not worried about UTG+1. BB's range is a lot of one pair hands, straight draws (including gutshots) and flush draws - of course there's sets and two pair as well (I discount these a bit because he didn't go for the CR on the drawy board to force out UTG+1).
Against this range my equity changes dramatically on the turn, so when a non scare card falls (almost every scare card for my opponent is a scare card for me too) and BB leads out I get to raise two players with the improved equity. If a scare card hits and he still bets I can call down now that my equity is even lower still.

I think this is a reasonable thought process but is my logic flawed anywhere? Or is it just better to get the bets in now?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Oink]

Because his range is so wide here I disagree a bit on the "my equity changes dramatically on the turn".

I think this is much more of a point when either villains range is skewed more towards fds or when the pot is 4, 5 or 6 way where it is more likely that someone has a fd.

IMO this hand is pretty simple. You jam now while you can and while the third guy is in. All this waiting to turn stuff seems very FPS like to me.

[inferno]

raising a 7turn is meh also, and it doesnt really matter if a KQJ comes on the turn villian might slowdown already to that overcard so I agree with jamming it now while you can

[Wolfram]

Raise now for value.

Putting SB on either a big hand or a big draw is silly. People donk all sorts of crap cause they think it's tricky. UTG+1's range is ATC. Because of how wide both their ranges are your equity is much higher than 33%.

Lots of turns will freeze the action (either for you or for them) so get the value now while you can.

[acehole60]

Thanks guys. I think you're right.

[johnnyrocket]

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I'm raising the flop because there are a lot of cards that drop on the turn that make me not as happy with my hand/ not want to be calling turn 3-bets. Plus they probably have crap and I have no problem with fast playing flops with the best hand.

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yes but they will both almost certainly call another turn bet, its not protecting our hand, just juicing up the pot for the turn

[Wolfram]

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I'm raising the flop because there are a lot of cards that drop on the turn that make me not as happy with my hand/ not want to be calling turn 3-bets. Plus they probably have crap and I have no problem with fast playing flops with the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes but they will both almost certainly call another turn bet, its not protecting our hand, just juicing up the pot for the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
- The pot is medium sized, so I think you should be more interested in betting for value than for protection.
- No amount of bets will protect you from good draws (they always have the odds to call). So just charge them the max while you're pretty sure your equity is good.
- If juicing the pot now induces villain to make a bad call on the turn with a 2,3,4 or 5 outer then that's fine.

[bobhalford]

Your opponents don't know you have AA. I would raise, as there are many cards on the turn that will dissuade BB from betting again. Even if utg+1 folded the flop, I wouldn't wait for the turn. But since he called, get the money in while it's hot. You can't guarantee a turn bet from BB nor a call from the hijack.