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  #1  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:26 AM
Olrik Olrik is offline
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Default 666 flop

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

if someone has a 6 im toast, if not im good. do you take this hand to sd?
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  #2  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:47 AM
DJB20 DJB20 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

Tough call as it was played, but you possibly could have avoided this by raising pre-flop. This is a very high quality hand that definitly should have been raised pre-flop. If it was raised, it would be much harder to put your opponent on a 6, but its still obviously possible. But against 24 other cards and based on the way he played it, it's hard not to put him on the 6 here. Just my opinion.
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  #3  
Old 11-14-2007, 11:04 AM
brian64 brian64 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

With 6 opponents seeing the flop, someone will hold 24 out of the 45 cards you can't see, so your odds of winning are are 24:21. If there is a bet on each round, it will cost you 5 small bets, but there are already 7 small bets in the pot. You also have a backdoor low draw, which adds something. I think you have the odds to call, but I wouldn't bet the flop. If a rock comes out and bets, you might fold, but I would call to the showdown against a maniac.
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  #4  
Old 11-14-2007, 12:08 PM
Phil153 Phil153 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

I'd bet the flop and fold a non low turn.

Flop bet is a no brainer, it's nearly 50/50 that no one has a 6 and it's worth trying to pick up the 7BB pot.

Once you're bet into on the turn, you either have to call to the river or fold. Calling to the river ensures you pay off 2BB every time someone has a 6, which I think is quite likely for someone that would call the flop and then bet into you on the turn. You're risking 2BB to win 5.5BB, so he'd need to not have a 6 ~30% of the time (including suckouts). I don't like it.

Of course if the turn is a low then you have an easy call.
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  #5  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:20 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

Hi Olrik - Hero is stuck at least calling the hand down to the showdown.

That's because if somebody bets and Hero has the winning hand, there will be at least 8 small bets in the pot at the showdown and it will only cost Hero 5 small bets to see the showdown.

Assuming at least one more bet goes into the pot, Hero will thus win at least 8 small bets 21 times out of 45.
+8*21/45=+168/45
Assuming Hero puts at least one bet into the pot each round, in a fixed-limit game, Hero will lose a total of 5 more small bets. And Hero should fully expect to lose 24 times out of 45.
-5*24/45=-120/45

Thus by calling the hand down to the showdown, Hero wins more than he loses. (Hero wins a minimum of +168/45 and only loses a maximum of -120/45).

Therefore Hero has to be in the hand to the showdown. In other words, Hero is stuck in the hand.

Some might argue, "What if somebody bets who would never bluff here?" My reply is simply, "This is poker. Your mother who loves you might bet here to try to steal the pot."

Therefore, steel yourself to be in this pot until the showdown. Steel yourself to fatalistically take the pressure.

You are not folding this hand. It would be terrible poker to fold this hand. If Jesus Christ Himself bet, confided in you that He held the missing six, told you to trust in Him, and you had never, ever ever seen Him bluff, it would be terrible poker to fold this hand.

If we're absolutely straight on that point, now the question becomes, "How can you maximize your profit?" And the answer (perhaps as always) is, "It depends on your opponents."

Hero has three players yet to act behind him. If Hero thinks one of them very well might bet if Hero checks, then Hero can check and hope somebody without the six takes the bait and bets. If so, and assuming Hero simply calls, quite possibly Villain will also bet the turn and then also bet the river in an attempt to convince Hero that Villain has the missing six. And in that case, Hero can expect to still lose 21 times out of 45, amounting to a total (in units of small bets) of
-5*24/45=-120/45. But Hero can also expect to win a whopping
+(7+5)*21/45=+252/45.

Or, if Hero thinks nobody will bet, then Hero can still check, and then can still check the turn. And then Hero can bet the river and an opponent with some lower pair might not believe Hero and Hero will win an extra big bet. Hero might very well get raised on the river if he plays the hand this way, and in that case Hero would have to call (remember we're not folding this hand) and in that case Hero would still lose 21 times out of 45, but for a total of only 4 more small bets, instead of 5. Hero would lose
-4*24/45=-96/45. But Hero can also expect to win
+(7+4)*21/45=+231/45.

If Hero bets on the second betting round and gets called, Hero has to wonder if Villain has the missing six. And then Hero has to check on the third and fourth betting rounds. Villain may bet both of these rounds, or may bet either one of them. Let's say Villain just trickily checks the hand on the third betting round and then bets the fourth betting round after Hero checks again. Remember that Hero may not fold this hand. (There's one exception. If Hero peeks in Villain's hand and clearly sees for himself the six in Villain's hand, then Hero may fold).

But let's say that Hero bets on the second betting round, Villain who checked ahead of Hero calls, and then Villain checks the third and fourth betting rounds, hoping that Hero bets again. In that case, exactly one more small bet goes into the pot.
Hero would lose
-1*24/45=-24/45. But as opposed to just checking it down all the way to the river, Hero would expect to win
+(+1)*21/45=+21/45.

Thus Hero has favorable odds to call all the way to the river, but does not actually have favorable odds to bet himself!

But don't leap to conclusions.

Although Hero does not have favorable odds to bet himself, on the river it is probably wise for Hero to bet (even with unfavorable odds). And for two reasons. <ul type="square">(1) Nobody holding a six is likely to check on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th betting rounds and an opponent without the six (but with a pair) may pay off Hero - and if not, Hero doesn't have to show his hand.
(2) No hand is an island. If Hero expects to get paid off on the river when he bets the nuts on the river, then Hero has to bet some non-nut hands on the river. Hero is going to lose 3/45 more often than he wins here, but by betting here, he may collect 45/45 on the next hand he bets with the nuts on the river.[/list]Finally, if you're fairly certain no opponent has a six but a calling station will call you down to the showdown but will not bet himself, it makes sense to bet this hand all the way to the showdown, even with unfavorable odds against the whole field.

I would generally check this hand until the river, and then I would bet the river. I think that's probably a safe bet in my games because not many seated behind me with a six in my games would check both the second and third betting rounds, and even fewer seated ahead of me would check the second, third, and fourth betting rounds. However, someone without a six might call me, especially if I waited until the fourth betting round.

In the previous paragraph I wrote "generally." Sometimes I would bet the second betting round just to see what would happen. And then I'd play from there, depending on what did happen. I could only lose a maximum of
-6*24/45=-144/45. But I would expect to win a minimum of
+(+8)*21/45=+168/45.

The key to playing this hand/flop is staying for the showdown and neither panicking because of fear nor greed.

(Whew, that was longer than I thought it would be). [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Buzz
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  #6  
Old 11-14-2007, 05:42 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

One addendum, and I think it deserves a separate post...

I reasoned for a fixed-limit game.

The reasoning for a pot-limit game would be different. If Hero doesn't bet on the second betting round, an opponent behind him may bet. And then Hero won't know if Villain has a six or not.

Hero has to find out right away if Villain holds a six.

Phil is a pot limit player. Directly betting on the second betting round in a pot limit game makes much more sense than checking because Hero has to judge as soon as possible if he is beat or not.

The difference is an opponent with a six can bet the pot on each betting round. Instead of losing a maximum of just 5 small bets by staying for the showdown, Hero could lose 63 big blinds!

It makes good sense to bet on the second betting round, hoping to win the pot outright or get information. Then if an opponent calls, it becomes a cat and mouse game.

My problem with pot limit is that it would not clear to me, if holding the pair of aces, whether I was the cat or the mouse!

Buzz

Edit: This is where short stack strategy might come into play. There are 7 big blinds in the pot. Hero expects to win 21/45 and lose 24/45.

Let's see... how about
7*21/45 + X*21/45 = X*24/45
7*21 = 3X
49 = X.

If my algebraic formulation is correct, if Hero goes all-in for 49 big blinds, and if Villain calls, then Hero figures to break even.

Thus if Hero expects Villain to call with or without the case six, Hero can go all-in for less than 49 big blinds and expect to show a profit. If Hero only has seven big blinds, it would seem an easy push. With up to 48 big blinds, it would seem an easy push.

I don't know... this is my first venture into trying to figure out how to play a short stack in a pot limit game. I could easily be missing something. Someone who knows better than I do should correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks in advance and I won't even reply.

Buzz
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  #7  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:38 PM
beernutz beernutz is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

Nice analysis as always Buzz, but this definitely needs some love:

"You are not folding this hand. It would be terrible poker to fold this hand. If Jesus Christ Himself bet, confided in you that He held the missing six, told you to trust in Him, and you had never, ever ever seen Him bluff, it would be terrible poker to fold this hand. "
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  #8  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:45 PM
Olrik Olrik is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

[ QUOTE ]
Nice analysis as always Buzz, but this definitely needs some love:

"You are not folding this hand. It would be terrible poker to fold this hand. If Jesus Christ Himself bet, confided in you that He held the missing six, told you to trust in Him, and you had never, ever ever seen Him bluff, it would be terrible poker to fold this hand. "

[/ QUOTE ]

so true. signature material!!
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  #9  
Old 11-14-2007, 08:39 PM
eof eof is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

[ QUOTE ]
Nice analysis as always Buzz, but this definitely needs some love:

"You are not folding this hand. It would be terrible poker to fold this hand. If Jesus Christ Himself bet, confided in you that He held the missing six, told you to trust in Him, and you had never, ever ever seen Him bluff, it would be terrible poker to fold this hand. "

[/ QUOTE ]

especially on a 666 flop
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  #10  
Old 11-14-2007, 11:11 PM
CAMEL1111 CAMEL1111 is offline
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Default Re: 666 flop

I am very karmatic in that way as well.
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