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#11
11-29-2007, 01:58 PM
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Re: Turning a -EV draw into a +EV lead (micro theory)
[ QUOTE ]
Since no one has yet, I'd like to at least mention pot size, since it should be a consideration. Here it is small. So by virtue of that alone, I almost always check and fold and look for other opportuities. [/ QUOTE ] The potsize discussion is implicit, since the setup includes a potsize of 2.5sb. Since you're risking 1 bet to win 2.5, if you have ~30% chance that it'll work it's 0EV. In some live games, against some opponents, and at some stakes you're closer to 60% that it works. In micro online games, you're closer to, uh, 0%. 
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#12
11-29-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: Turning a -EV draw into a +EV lead (micro theory)
[ QUOTE ]
In a live game, I check-raise the flop and fire out on the turn. Then I hit a ten on the river where I check so that I may tarp him with another C/R. When he bets and sees my hand after calling my check-raise. he goes to the kitchen to grab a blunt knife and tries to stab me in the stomach. I sue him making this situation +EV and all my bets for value. [/ QUOTE ] This is why I only play live at the Bellagio in Vegas and my friend Rob's house. The Bellagio won't let players into the kitchen, and Rob's kitchen has been undergoing a "3-week makeover" for nearly 6 years now...all his knives are in the third drawer of his dresser, and if you try to "go to the kitchen" you wind up falling in the pool.
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#13
11-29-2007, 03:04 PM
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Re: Turning a -EV draw into a +EV lead (micro theory)
[ QUOTE ]
Since no one has yet, I'd like to at least mention pot size, since it should be a consideration. Here it is small. So by virtue of that alone, I almost always check and fold and look for other opportuities. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, that's precisely what makes OP (and others) think that a value-semi-bluff is sometimes appropriate. People are FAR less likely to call you when the pot is small. So, since you're investing one small bet to potentially win 2.5, you only need it to work about 28.5% of the time for it to be profitable. That said, I stand by my original claim that it really depends on the villain (and your table image, too, for that matter). Sometimes this is +EV move, sometimes not.
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