Quick quiz

[Noam Chomsky]

he's calling with mid-high flush draws, some mid pairs, a few straight draws maybe a top pair here or there and even an overpair once or twice. our equity has to be about 75% cause a good chunk of his range is drawing to 2 or fewer outs.

With A9 I guess we're closer to flipping cause lots of the flush draws and half of the straight draws also have two overs.

[DevinLake]

A) J9o, T9o, T8o, 87o, 77, 66, 55, 33, 22, Axcc, KTcc+, QTcc+, SC clubs, JTo, 76o, A9o.

Plus all the monsters, TT+, sets and 2prs. But, I'd discount them some because he'll re-raise TT+ quite a bit pre and will raise the flop with monster a lot of the time as well.

Because of this, I'd think A9 would have similar equity.

Also, because I feel people peel so light on these type boards, I double barrel them a lot with or without a made hand.

[CrazyLond]

A) A9, A8, 9T, TJ, TT, JJ, 44, 88, 99, many Ax and connecting club possibilities. I think with QQ, KK or the other AA the typical player will typically have reraised preflop or led out or check-raised on flop with 2 clubs on board. With 89 I'd also usually expect either a bet or check-raise on flop. Sets are probably strong enough for a simple check-call even with 2 clubs on board.

B) Against entire range I'm probably 60% favorite. This is a calculation I would never normally make because I'm getting to see the turn card which will obviously alter the figure.

C) With A9, I'm probably about 50/50.

D) With AA, I am ahead of almost everything in my range except a set. I am 90% against TT, JJ, A9 or A8. I'm 80% against 9T and 75% against TJ(not clubs). I'm 65% against flush draws with no pairs or straight draws. Flush draws with other possibilities(pair or straight draw) seem like the most likely holding since there are so many variations possible. A few of these would be favored against me and the rest I'd be only a very slight favorite against. I'd say 50% of the hands I'm against are these, so 50/50 there. I'd say another 45% are the hands I mentioned above where on average, I'm about 75/25. The other 5% of the time I'm up against a set and am a 9-1 dog. 0.5(0.5)+0.45(0.75)+0.05(0.1) = 0.25+0.3375+0.005 = 59%. I did use a calculator for this, but my initial impulse was 60%. I'm not going to break it down for A9 but I'm now also a dog against TT and JJ, I'm even money with A9 and not as big a favorite against any flush draw with overcards to the 9 or to TJ. I'm also now drawing almost dead to a set but this doesn't factor in much since I was drawing slim anyway. I'd estimate my total chances of winning with A9 around 50%.

[corsakh]

Sorry for hijack, whats the deal with all these "LP" avatars?

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
A) what is a typical range that villain will check/call a bet with ?

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ, JT, J9, T9, T8, 98, 87, 76, 99-44, A9, A8, Axcc, KQcc, QTcc, KJcc, KTcc, 56cc, Kxcc (obviously, some of these are raising some % of the time)

[ QUOTE ]
B) what is your equity against that range? (No pokerstove!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Id guess around 73% when he just calls

[ QUOTE ]
C) Now you have A9 on the same flop. What is your equity ?

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm, hes less likely to have a 9x hand now, and now many of his unpaired draw hands have an overcard or 2, I also have less equity against the hands he has that are beating me. Id say it prolly drops to like 65%, but it also means I wont get as much value on the turn since im more likely to play pot control on lots of cards.

[ QUOTE ]
Since we couldn't use pokerstove for this quiz, list at least 2 factors that you used to conclude on an equity number.

[/ QUOTE ]

estimation of the most likely hands he has via estimating hand combos, and the outs those hands have vs me, and multiplied by 4 for his approximate equity, then just took the complement. Adjusted up or down slightly based on how I thought he would play the hands that beat me, or the hands that had more outs than what the mean hands had.

edit: I just stoved it, I pretty much nailed it with AA for my estimation <font color="white">(got 71%) </font> , but the A9o plummeted my equity much more than I thought it would, it fell to <font color="white">58% </font>.

[sebbb]

ok let me add a few more hands then

A)
99,88,44,89s : 12 hands- 10% equity
56c,AKc,QJc,TJc,67c : 5 hands- 50%
TJs, 67s (suit&lt;&gt;club): 6 hands - 65%
JJ+, A9s: 21 hands (ignoring AA) - 90%

B) total equity:
My answer: 60% equity, see below for "details"

I think this is equivalent to

29 hands with 50% equity, 6 hands with 65, 9 hands with 90%

or

29 hands with 50%, 15 hands with 80% (should be 30-15 if we add the other AA)

or

2 hands 50%, 1 hand 80%

My final answer: 60% equity


C) With A9, you have 18 more hands in the 10% group. I think the final answer would be around 35%, but I'm doing this quickly (I'd say 2/3 of hands we have globally a 50% equity, 1/3 about 10%)

D) number of hands in a given group of hands, equity against that group



Now let's see if my answers are ridiculous. BTW it took me a while to compute this, I wouldn't do that at the table.

Edit: results in white vs a
JJ+,99-88,44,AcKc,A9s,QcJc,JTs,98s,76s,6c5c range

<font color="white"> AA: 61%, A9: 28% (A9s=34%, A9o=26%)
not too bad I guess </font>

[cs3]

A)
TJs, 67s,
56cc, AXcc, QJcc, KJcc, KQcc, KTcc, QTcc
TT, 9Xs, A8s, 77, 66, 55,

B) umm rough estimate? i suck at this... maybe ~67% vs the range i gave? im obv expcting the avg player to raise sets and 2 pair on flop









edit - this was like a 90sec post so my range could be off... and obv my equity estimate could be way off

[sebbb]

ok I just realized the question was check-call, when I thought it was "go all in with" (i.e. if we bet/3bet etc). So my range sucks a bit.

[McBeef]

im assuming ave tag

77-55,T9s,98s,87s
80%
80%

[carrotsnake]

60 and 68