OESD oop in a bloated pot, say what...

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
yes obv we r well behind his range but we should have a [censored] ton of FE here. i dont see a nit calling a big 3 bet on this flop against another known nit with 99-QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this, I can't see why he would have raised here if he doesnt want to call a shove as this is not a very good board to be bluffing on. If he puts you on an overpair he knows you will call because of the SD on the flop, and thus we should also know that if he has QQ he will be putting us on the SD if we shove. Obv he wont put us directly on the SD but he will be figuring it into our range. I think our FE is pretty low here.

[Altreg]

CR on this flop is waaaaaaaaay better than 3b or crai If you interesting in EV numbers they r:

EV(3bet)=+0.54bb
EV(crai)=-1.91bb
EV(CR)=+2.7

so like said b4-just CR

[Nick Royale]

Check/call the flop. Bet/3-betting sucks. A nittish player just made a more than 4x raise deep, this should clearly make us discount at least JJ-88. I don't think we should try to get him fold AA-QQ and a set is obviously in his range as well.

I don't get the idea of betting the flop at all. Just check/call and pick up the c-bet. We have a nice draw and we're ahead often, by betting we're getting him to fold tons of worse hands and when we're behind we're often bloating the pot with a decent draw deep. We're obv never getting him to fold a better hand by betting, unless we're also 3-betting which would be bad because his raising range is strong and probably doesn't include JJ-88/7x type of hands.

[Michaelson]

People realise we're > 200bb deep here, right?

Leading this flop against a nitty UTG raiser this deep is questionable. It'd be good if his range was wide enough you were likely to get a fold or call, or even if he was the sort to bluff raise, but in this spot he's likely to be pretty strong and you have no moves when he raises you (you have to fold flop here, IMO, with no odds or implied odds).

Basically, when you lead, and he's sitting there with an overpair or set, he thinks "crap, I'm good right now, but that board's drawy, so I gotta pot" and then you're screwed. Also, from his perspective, he can probably fold most overpair's pretty comfortably if you come over the top.

Alternatively, if you check raise the flop, all of a sudden he has to be more cautious with his strong/non monster hands, because a 3-bet will be committing himself in a monster pot where he'll probably only get it in as a significant underdog.

[Altreg]

Yes,c/c is better and higher ev ,than 3b or crai
But i think we do want hem 2fold hes "better" hands,wich i think include A/Q and A/K,we dont want hem 2 hit them on the turn
I think ev(c/c) is arroung +1.7 and ev(c/r) still higher

[Michaelson]

BTW, I agree with Nick as well that check/calling is pretty sound, particularly against a nit. Better than a CR as a rule, actually. If you want to take a crack at this on the flop, though, leading is the worst way to go about it IMO.

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes,c/c is better and higher ev ,than 3b or crai
But i think we do want hem 2fold hes "better" hands,wich i think include A/Q and A/K,we dont want hem 2 hit them on the turn
I think ev(c/c) is arroung +1.7 and ev(c/r) still higher

[/ QUOTE ]

What are these numbers? This is gibberish to me.

[Altreg]

sry if u dont get it.i just put in end-numbers for ev for each play that i calculated
But if u inerested,this is complite calculations
EV(on 3bet)=0.45*11.3+0.55((11.3+30)0.37-0.63*37.75))
=5.08+055(1528-23.53)=+0.54

EV(on all-in re reaise)=0.45*11.3+055((11.3+47.15)0.37-063*52.7)=5.08+0.55(20.47-33.21)=-1.98

EV(on CR)=0.75*4.5+0.25((4.5+12)*0.36-0.64*14.25)=3.37+0.25(5.94-9.25)=+2.57

[Nick Royale]

Btw, check/raising the flop is bad because what do you do when you get called and you miss the turn? Check/fold? Check/call? Bet/fold? Bet/call? Everything pretty much suck. By check/calling the flop we're keeping the pot in a managable size and the betsizes reasonable compared to our hands strength. When we b/3b or c/r the flop our sd value go out the window.

Also think about what hands you're trying to get to fold by check/raising the flop. Only worse hands right? Not always do we need the initiative postflop. Imo doing anything other than check/calling the flop would be a pretty big mistake.

[Altreg]

you right about keeping pot small off positon

I just replyed about betting options,but c/c its good option 2