55 UTG

[westhoff]

I would've looked at the first five dealt to me and folded without looking at the other. I can't believe some people are saying to play this hand. But I'm nit so flame away.

[stealthmunk]

55 basically has the same value as 99 here, and every single one of you would shove 99 100%.

[IWEARGOGGLES]

I think Stealthmunk is right. When you shove with 55 you'll only get looked up by 66, 77, and 88. When you shove with 99 they'll have tens every time.

[baltostar]

I don't think any of you saying fold can come up with any sort of logic to justify that decision. "Standard" does not count as logic.

The only logic posted so far is that you get to see another orbital. Yes, another orbital during which you bleed off 2200 chips, possibly move up another level, and are only 32% to be dealt a PP better than 55.

[stealthmunk]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Stealthmunk is right. When you shove with 55 you'll only get looked up by 66, 77, and 88. When you shove with 99 they'll have tens every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh, should have explained in more detail.
You guys are saying how nitty everyone is live/at table.

I was just saying that you are giving everyone a calling range of 88 or 99+AQ+? until the blinds maybe a little more?

Just stating that 55 has pretty much same value as 99 because for the same assumptions that would make this a +EV shove (66,77,88 are folding) then the EV of shoving 99 is only slightly % points higher than shoving 55 and is basically irrelevant.

same obv goes for 22 obv

[WarDekar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think Stealthmunk is right. When you shove with 55 you'll only get looked up by 66, 77, and 88. When you shove with 99 they'll have tens every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh, should have explained in more detail.
You guys are saying how nitty everyone is live/at table.

I was just saying that you are giving everyone a calling range of 88 or 99+AQ+? until the blinds maybe a little more?

Just stating that 55 has pretty much same value as 99 because for the same assumptions that would make this a +EV shove (66,77,88 are folding) then the EV of shoving 99 is only slightly % points higher than shoving 55 and is basically irrelevant.

same obv goes for 22 obv

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why I asked Exit what his calling range is. If his range is TT+, AK then standard live player Nitty McFolderson is probably folding TT and AK LOL.

I also think raising and not shoving here is kinda bad because it creates the situation that you got into Betgo, live players [censored] love to call raises with marginal hands, and every single one of those hands has overs vs. you and you'll have no clue how to play post flop.

[FlyingCarpet]

I would rely on my read/table image and relative chip stacks. Also, how deep are we, bubble approaching?

Rather than think about what we have, I think about what villian's calling range is and what they think we have.(do our cards really matter too much?!?) A thinking player will/should read a shove with our stack size as exactly what it is, most PP(admittedly 55 really pushes this) or Big Ace possibly something like KQ. If we wait for another orbit wouldn't a thinking player loosen up our shoving range to include any Ace and any two broadway??

The Ifs:
If our stack is more than 50% of everybody else's and,
If I'm not considered a maniac and
If there aren't any very loose gambler types willing call off with a wide range.

I shove this. We are getting short and need to accept more risk in order to chip up or we're gonna end up shoving weaker holdings with less FE or get blinded off waiting for a monster.

I've tried the 'look strong by just raising UTG because they know I should push/fold' tactic with very limited success. It seems that somebody always comes along and we're gonna hate almost every flop.

As stated before, this is very close and highly read/image dependent. I'm insta shoving 99+.

[zizazziza]

here are my reasons for folding
1) this is the same situation where the question is whether you would want AK UTG or 72 on btn.
2) Live players may be nitty, but this is a 10-person table and live players will sometimes call huge raises b/c they "just dont believe you"
3) This was stated later by betgo, but he shoved 66 in strange spot as well so he is more likely to get looked up by hands that beat or are in coinflip with 66 that they might not originally
4) Were any of the big stacks in the blinds? If so, I dont like the shove as much b/c they are more likely to call
5) Balto i understand where you are coming from, i mean how can someone call with a marginal hand when you are shoving from the 1-HOLE!!!!??? (Hellmuth reference intended). But you will get looked up by some strange [censored] in poker.
6) Arent there much higher +EV situations here other than a shove UTG? I mean the blinds wont cripple you enough that I think that you HAVE to shove here UTG.

Also, here is some food for thought:
Lets take 2 hypotheticals: 1) Tight-nitty table (2) loose table

1)
a) Your UTG steal(?) will work most of the time b/c they are so nitty they wont call. When you do get called you are usually waaay behind or at best a coinflip.
b) You are now co/hj/btn and folded around to you (more likely cuz they are nits). Your raise will take this down a very high majority of the time and the chances of the blinds calling your shove is a lot lower since its only 2 ppl instead of 9.
2)
a) You get looked up by any pp (most of which you are behind). You are getting looked up by KQ+ (maybe KJ) and are at best a coinflip in most scenarios. In this case its obviously -EV.
b) CO/HJ/Btn, you have to increase your ranges by a little, but you can still shove Ax and have a good chance to increase your stack v 2-3 ppl.

It just seems that in either a lively or nitty table, waiting till the blinds pass will allow you to increase your EV significantly

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any of you saying fold can come up with any sort of logic to justify that decision. "Standard" does not count as logic.

The only logic posted so far is that you get to see another orbital. Yes, another orbital during which you bleed off 2200 chips, possibly move up another level, and are only 32% to be dealt a PP better than 55.

[/ QUOTE ]


ok, so roughly, if everyone is calling TT+AK (i'm not saying this is true, but just as an example of a very tight table - then we'd be getting called 27.5% and winning blinds 72.5%. of the 27.5% we're called our equity is 31.3%.

Sooo 11.2k stack 2200 in the pot,

(.725 * 2200) + [.275*(24600*.313 - 11200)]
(1650) + [.275 * -3500]
1650 - 962.5
=
+687.5 chips/+.3M

I think thats the most optimistic we can be right?

I'm not positive that a fold is right - but it doesnt seem like a good spot to me - but i guess if it was guaranteed to be +.3M i'd shove, but i think its more of a best case scenario.

and edited on to compare, if calling ranges are changed to: AQ+,88+,

(.595 * 2200) + [.405*(24600*.342 - 11200)]
1309 - 1128= +180 chips, less than .1M

in this case i definitely think we should pass it up.

[baltostar]

Even at the loosest table an UTG shove is not going to get looked up by *any* PP, unless it's a short stack. Even if they do, it's only around 30% that anyone has a PP better than 55.

When considering shove/fold, I think a lot of players place too much emphasis on position because they're worried about running into AK or a big PP. Position is important, but the likelihood of players having JJ+, AK is pretty low, less than 20% even for shoving into nine players.

Fold equity is what it's all about: they fear you have exactly what you have, a PP, against which any two unpaired cards is a dog and they will fold unless short. And if they have a PP, they typically have no clue regarding your PP range, and unless short most will over-fold, worried about being a 4.5:1 dog.

I don't worry so much about position here. My M is at the inflection point where where soon my stack utility will be taking really big hits and I will be hamstrung. My advantage is that I anticipate that reality ahead of my opponents and the poker gods have given me a PP at just the right moment. I must pursue my advantage.